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The Texas House Safe R

This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →

Forecast · candidate-independent chamber model

Republicans are favored to hold control of the Texas House.

Chance of R control91 in 100Expected Democratic seats 60.3 of 15080% range 5264
D 62150 seats · 76 for a majorityR 88
PVIR+6
Seats up in 2026150
Chamber size150
Majority threshold76
District by district

150 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.

Rating band
Striped = seat changes partyModeled seats use forecast paint; legal carries and terrain remain explicitly distinct
Forecast margin — pale at Even, deep at safe

Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.

DemocratRepublican
40Republican — 50 in 100TERRY CANALESVANGELA CHURCHILL · NEHEMIAS "MEMO" GOMEZ · CELESTE CABRERA-HUFFR+0.0
42Republican — 52 in 100RICHARD PENA RAYMONDTERESA JOHNSON-HERNANDEZR+0.5
38ERIN ELIZABETH GAMEZ — 53 in 100ERIN ELIZABETH GAMEZLAURA E. CISNEROSD+0.7
34Republican — 56 in 100STEPHANIE GUERRERO SAENZDENISE VILLALOBOSR+1.4
41Republican — 57 in 100VICTOR SEBY HADDAD · ERIC HOLGUIN · JULIO SALINASGARY GROVES · SARAH SAGREDO - HAMMOND · SERGIO SANCHEZR+1.6
39Republican — 60 in 100ARMANDO MANDO MARTINEZR+2.4
144DAVID FLORES — 62 in 100EMMANUEL GUERRERO · MICHAEL MONTEMAYOR · MARY ANN PEREZDAVID FLORESR+3.0
112Republican — 64 in 100ZACH HERBERTPERRY E. BARKER, SR · ANGIE CHEN BUTTON · CHAD CARNAHAN · TINA PRICER+3.5
118Republican — 68 in 100KRISTIAN CARRANZAJORGE BORREGO · DESI MARTINEZ · JOE SHELLHARTR+4.7
75MARY E GONZALEZ — 69 in 100MARY E GONZALEZD+4.7
The Race Feed · 11 items across Texas races →