Texas

SenateD+0.7

U.S. House · projectedD 11 · R 27

GovernorR+5.8

2024 presidentR+13.7

Forecast as of October 26, 2026. U.S. Senate: James Talarico ahead of Ken Paxton by D+0.7, with a 55 in 100 chance to win. Governor: Greg Abbott ahead of Gina Hinojosa by R+5.8, with an 84 in 100 chance to win. U.S. House: Democrats are favored in 11 of the state's 38 districts and Republicans in 27.

Closest races

TX-35Carlos De La Cruz vs. Johnny GarciaToss-upR+0.2 U.S. SenateFlipJames Talarico vs. Ken PaxtonTilt DD+0.7 TX-15FlipBobby Pulido vs. Monica De La CruzLean DD+3.3 TX-23Brandon Herrera vs. Katy Padilla StoutLean RR+3.7

Projected delegation: D 11 · R 27

TX-01Nathaniel Moran vs. Yolanda PrinceSolid RR+39.8 TX-02Steve Toth vs. Shaun FinnieLikely RR+12.7 TX-03Keith Self vs. Evan HuntSolid RR+17.8 TX-04Pat Fallon vs. Jason PearceSolid RR+18.7 TX-05Lance Gooden vs. Chelsey HockettSolid RR+14.8 TX-06Jake Ellzey vs. Danny MintonSolid RR+20.1 TX-07Lizzie Fletcher vs. Alexander HaleSolid DD+31.9 TX-08Jessica Steinmann vs. Laura JonesSolid RR+16.9 TX-09FlipAlex Mealer vs. Leticia GutierrezLean RR+5.9 TX-10Chris Gober vs. Caitlin RourkLikely RR+10.9 TX-11August Pfluger vs. Claire ReynoldsSolid RR+26.2 TX-12Craig Goldman vs. Angela Rodriguez PrillimanSolid RR+17.8 TX-13Ronny Jackson vs. Mark NairSolid RR+36.9 TX-14Randy Weber vs. Thurman BartieSolid RR+16.9 TX-15FlipBobby Pulido vs. Monica De La CruzLean DD+3.3 TX-16Veronica Escobar vs. Adam BaumanSolid DD+25.0 TX-17Pete Sessions vs. Casey ShepardSolid RR+16.2 TX-18Christian Menefee vs. Ronald WhitfieldSolid DD+57.8 TX-19Tom Sell vs. Kyle RableSolid RR+38.3 TX-20Joaquin Castro vs. Edgardo BaezSolid DD+34.8 TX-21Mark Teixeira vs. Kristin HookLikely RR+10.6 TX-22Trever Nehls vs. Marquette Greene-ScottLikely RR+13.1 TX-23Brandon Herrera vs. Katy Padilla StoutLean RR+3.7 TX-24Beth Van Duyne vs. Kevin BurgeLikely RR+11.4 TX-25Roger Williams vs. Dione SimsSolid RR+17.3 TX-26Brandon Gill vs. Steven ShookSolid RR+17.3 TX-27Michael Cloud vs. Tanya LloydSolid RR+14.9 TX-28Henry Cuellar vs. Tano TijerinaLikely DD+6.7 TX-29Sylvia Garcia vs. Martha FierroSolid DD+36.9 TX-30Frederick Haynes III vs. Everett JacksonSolid DD+46.9 TX-31John Carter vs. Justin EarlySolid RR+18.1 TX-32FlipJace Yarbrough vs. Dan BarriosSolid RR+15.6 TX-33Colin Allred vs. Patrick GillespieSolid DD+42.5 TX-34Vicente Gonzalez vs. Eric FloresLean DD+4.2 TX-35Carlos De La Cruz vs. Johnny GarciaToss-upR+0.2 TX-36Brian Babin vs. Rhonda HartSolid RR+16.4 TX-37Greg Casar vs. Lauren PeñaSolid DD+54.9 TX-38Jon Bonck vs. Melissa McDonoughLikely RR+12.1