State Legislature · South Dakota · r64-20260730-236b8cdd42f0
South Dakota Senate District 15
State Senate · Candidate field unresolved
PublicationBinary forecast published
RatingLean D
Forecast marginD+2.5
Democratic win probability60.0%
Party callDemocratic
Candidate adjustmentIncluded in sealed margin
The state’s partisan baseline is R+15.0 (Cook PVI, a third party’s number, not ours). This forecast has the office running 17.5 points more Democratic than its state. The gap is the office-and-candidate effect: what this race does that its state alone does not explain.
How this margin was built is not available for this surface yet. The statewide-downballot and state-legislative published artifacts carry the final center but not an end-to-end contribution ledger. The site will not invent or recompute one in the client.
TWIN means Typology-Weighted Inference from Neighbors, Call the Map’s comparable-unit matching engine for any kind of race. It borrows poll residuals only—never centers, terrain, or outcomes. Similarity is demographic and behavioural, not geographic, and each contribution decays with similarity distance. Borrowed evidence always has lower precision than a race’s own polling.
No TWIN signal is published. No published TWIN evidence row exists for this race or surface.
South Dakota Senate · District 1535 districts · as of 2026-07-30
Model estimate — a seat-level forecast, not a call.
D · Nomination unresolvedDemocratic nominee TBDParty baseline shown until an exact, source-backed nominee event resolves the field.
R · Nomination unresolvedRepublican nominee TBDParty baseline shown until an exact, source-backed nominee event resolves the field.
Recorded primary-field candidate records
These records remain accessible for identity and evidence history. None is presented as the nominee until the governed status feed resolves the party slot.