The Scenario Machine
Move the country, or reshape the electorate. Every federal race updates together.
ctm-2.2-20260913-8e8ecd96d03b · as of 2026-09-13How the scenarios are built →
Move the whole country
31 precomputed national moods, from R+7.4 to D+22.6 — the slider snaps between them, each fully simulated 100,000 times, nothing estimated in between
Current published forecast — no adjustments
Demographic controls
Race and education
35/35 Senate · 35/36 Governors · 420/435 HouseAge
35/35 Senate · 35/36 Governors · 420/435 HouseUrbanicity
35/35 Senate · 35/36 Governors · 420/435 HouseGender
35/35 Senate · 35/36 Governors · 420/435 HouseParty identification
35/35 Senate · 35/36 Governors · 420/435 HousePresidential approval
35/35 Senate · 35/36 Governors · 420/435 HouseIdeology
35/35 Senate · 35/36 Governors · 420/435 HousePublished baseline. CTMM 2.2 — expert-free forecasting, smooth Senate calibration and fitted uncertainty, as of 2026-09-13. Arithmetic on the model's published numbers, not a re-run of the simulation. No win probabilities appear on this page.
Sources. Race and education, age, urbanicity and gender use sourced crosstabs. Party identification, approval and ideology use modeled priors, not surveys of each race.
Shares move together. Within each dimension the selected turnout shares are renormalized to exactly 100.0%, so raising one group lowers the rest. Dimensions combine additively and can describe the same voters twice: this is transparent scenario arithmetic, not a synthetic joint-voter microdata model.
Race and education. White voters split by degree; Black and Hispanic/other voters remain whole because no complete race-by-education table is published.
Not admitted. Household income, complete education, registration, union membership, homeownership, marital status, religion and region/media market — each 0/506 qualifying race-level scenario rows.