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The Wisconsin Senate Tossup

This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →

Forecast · candidate-independent chamber model

Republicans are favored to hold control of the Wisconsin Senate.

Chance of R control63 in 100Expected Democratic seats 15.7 of 3380% range 1518
D 1533 seatsR 18
PVIEVEN
Seats up in 202617
Chamber size33
District by district

33 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.

Rating band
Striped = seat changes partyModeled seats use forecast paint; legal carries and terrain remain explicitly distinct
Forecast margin — pale at Even, deep at safe Not on the 2026 ballot (staggered term)

Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.

DemocratRepublican
17Modeled D-vs-RDemocratic — 54 in 100Corrine Hendrickson · Jenna Jacobson · Lisa Rose WhiteHoward MarkleinD+1.0
21Modeled D-vs-RTrevor Jung — 55 in 100Trevor JungJim CroftD+1.3
31Modeled D-vs-RJeff Smith — 59 in 100Jeff SmithMichele Magadance SkinnerD+2.2
5Modeled D-vs-RRobyn Vining — 73 in 100Robyn ViningMike RobertsD+6.0
15Modeled D-vs-RMark Spreitzer — 79 in 100Mark SpreitzerChristopher Dean · Scott FlemingD+7.8
25Modeled D-vs-RRepublican — 92 in 100Charly RayAngie Sapik · Erik SeversonR+13.8
9Modeled D-vs-RAmy Binsfeld — 95 in 100Amy Binsfeld · Christian Ellis (O)R+15.9
29Modeled D-vs-RCory Tomczyk — 98 in 100Gillian BattinoCory TomczykR+19.5
1Modeled D-vs-RRepublican — 98 in 100Katie Baney · Barbara Bittner · Nic Cravillion · Jacob VandenPlas · Mark Becker (O)R+20.6
19Modeled D-vs-RRachael Ann Cabral-Guevara — >99 in 100Emily Daniels TseffosRachael Ann Cabral-GuevaraR+26.1
The Race Feed · 3 items across Wisconsin races →