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The Wisconsin Assembly Tossup

This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →

Forecast · candidate-independent chamber model

Republicans are favored to hold control of the Wisconsin Assembly.

Chance of R control73 in 100Expected Democratic seats 45.1 of 9980% range 3654
D 4599 seatsR 54
PVIEVEN
Seats up in 202699
Chamber size99
District by district

99 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.

Rating band
Striped = seat changes partyModeled seats use forecast paint; legal carries and terrain remain explicitly distinct
Forecast margin — pale at Even, deep at safe

Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.

DemocratRepublican
88Brandy Tollefson — 51 in 100Brandy TollefsonBen FranklinD+0.4
85Republican — 52 in 100John KrollPatrick SnyderR+0.6
89Ryan Spaude — 58 in 100Ryan SpaudeBobby R. LindseyD+2.1
94Republican — 59 in 100Steve DoyleKeith PurnellR+2.2
95Jill Billings — 59 in 100Jill BillingsCedric Schnitzler · Paul Michael Weber (O)D+2.2
61Democratic — 59 in 100Brian Bock · Ben Brist · Lawanda ChambersBob DonovanD+2.2
26Joe Sheehan — 61 in 100Joe SheehanJohn Belanger · James Brotz · Tyler SchneeklothD+2.7
51Ben Gruber — 64 in 100Ben GruberTodd NovakD+3.5
21Democratic — 66 in 100Daniel J. Bukiewicz · David LinersDylan PfaffenbachD+4.2
53Becky Nichols — 67 in 100Becky NicholsDavid Daniels · Rachael Dowling (O)D+4.4
The Race Feed · 3 items across Wisconsin races →