← Back to the Chamber Board
Washington · Senate · State Legislature

The Washington Senate Safe D

This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →

Forecast · candidate-independent chamber model

Democrats are favored to hold control of the Washington Senate.

Chance of D control97 in 100Expected Democratic seats 30.2 of 4980% range 2932
D 3049 seatsR 19
PVID+10
Seats up in 202624
Chamber size49
District by district

49 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.

Rating band
Striped = seat changes partyModeled seats use forecast paint; legal carries and terrain remain explicitly distinct
Forecast margin — pale at Even, deep at safe Not on the 2026 ballot (staggered term)

Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.

DemocratRepublican
35Modeled D-vs-RDemocratic — 53 in 100Carolina MejiaDrew C MacEwenD+0.7
31Modeled D-vs-RPhil Fortunato — 77 in 100Tamara StramelPhil FortunatoR+7.3
26Modeled D-vs-RDeborah Krishnadasan — 84 in 100Deborah KrishnadasanGary ParkerD+9.7
42Modeled D-vs-RDemocratic — 85 in 100Eamonn Collins · Michael Alvarez ShepardErika Creydt · Ryan Bowman (O)D+10.2
6Modeled D-vs-RJeff Holy — 88 in 100Jeff HolyR+11.3
47Modeled D-vs-RClaudia Kauffman — 94 in 100Claudia KauffmanKristina SoltysD+15.7
38Modeled D-vs-RJune Robinson — 98 in 100June RobinsonBrad BenderD+20.0
30Modeled D-vs-RClaire Wilson — 98 in 100Claire WilsonMichael RutlandD+20.6
29Modeled D-vs-RDemocratic — 99 in 100David Anderson · Sharlett MenaD+21.4
44Modeled D-vs-RJohn Lovick — 99 in 100John LovickSherri LarkinD+21.6