This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →
Republicans are favored to hold control of the Utah Senate.
29 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.
Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.
| Democrat | Republican | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Modeled D-vs-R | KAREN KWAN — 75 in 100 | KAREN KWAN | DEIDRE TYLER | |
| 19 | Modeled D-vs-R | KIRK CULLIMORE — 82 in 100 | SHANA ANDERSON | KIRK CULLIMORE | |
| 5 | Modeled D-vs-R | JILL F. KOFORD — 88 in 100 | "CJ" CHRISTINA HERNANDEZ · DAKOTA WURTH | JILL F. KOFORD | |
| 7 | Modeled D-vs-R | Republican — >99 in 100 | GARRET RUSHFORTH | STUART ADAMS · BRADEN HESS · STEPHANIE HOLLIST · JEFFREY OSTLER (O) | |
| 18 | Modeled D-vs-R | Republican — >99 in 100 | A DANE ANDERSON | DOUG FIEFIA · DANIEL MCCAY | |
| 23 | Modeled D-vs-R | KEITH GROVER — >99 in 100 | TUCKER SMITH | KEITH GROVER | |
| 14 | Modeled D-vs-R | STEPHANIE PITCHER — >99 in 100 | STEPHANIE PITCHER | — | |
| 6 | Modeled D-vs-R | TAMI TRAN — >99 in 100 | JARED NEAL | TAMI TRAN · JOSH SMITH (O) | |
| 20 | Modeled D-vs-R | RONALD M WINTERTON — >99 in 100 | — | RONALD M WINTERTON · ANNETTE MCRAE (O) | |
| 11 | Modeled D-vs-R | BROOKS BENSON — >99 in 100 | MACKENZIE MILLER | BROOKS BENSON · EMILY BUSS (O) |