This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →
Republicans are favored to hold control of the Texas Senate.
31 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.
Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.
| Democrat | Republican | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Modeled D-vs-R | ROLAND GUTIERREZ — 55 in 100 | ROLAND GUTIERREZ | MARCUS CARDENAS · ROBERT MARKS, JR · ADAM ERNEST SALYER | |
| 21 | Modeled D-vs-R | Democratic — 63 in 100 | CORTNEY JONES · JUDITH ZAFFIRINI | JULIE DAHLBERG | |
| 9 | Modeled D-vs-R | LEIGH WAMBSGANSS — 96 in 100 | TAYLOR REHMET | LEIGH WAMBSGANSS | |
| 11 | Modeled D-vs-R | DENNIS PAUL — 98 in 100 | SHANNON DICELY · CAMERON A. ROLLWITZ | DENNIS PAUL | |
| 2 | Modeled D-vs-R | Republican — 98 in 100 | KEENEN COLBERT | JASON K. EDDINGTON · BOB HALL | |
| 26 | Modeled D-vs-R | JOSE MENENDEZ — 99 in 100 | JOSE MENENDEZ | — | |
| 5 | Modeled D-vs-R | Republican — 99 in 100 | KEVIN NELSON · PAUL THOMASSON | APOLLO HERNANDEZ · LARRY NANCE · CHARLES SCHWERTNER | |
| 24 | Modeled D-vs-R | PETE FLORES — >99 in 100 | JOE PAZ HERRERA | PETE FLORES | |
| 18 | Modeled D-vs-R | LOIS W. KOLKHORST — >99 in 100 | ERICA GILLUM | LOIS W. KOLKHORST | |
| 22 | Modeled D-vs-R | Republican — >99 in 100 | AMY MARTINEZ-SALAS | DAVID COOK · JON GIMBLE · RENA SCHROEDER |