This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →
Democrats are favored to hold control of the Oregon Senate.
30 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.
Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.
| Democrat | Republican | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Modeled D-vs-R | Republican — 65 in 100 | Rachel Armitage · Aaron Dickie · Jordan Gutierrez | Courtney Bangs · Tripp Dietrich · Frank A Mansfield | |
| 11 | Modeled D-vs-R | Democratic — 70 in 100 | Teresa Alonso Leon · Virginia Stapleton | Tracy M Cramer | |
| 26 | Modeled D-vs-R | Jeff Helfrich — 76 in 100 | Nicole Bassett · Matthew Favro | Jeff Helfrich | |
| 3 | Modeled D-vs-R | Democratic — 90 in 100 | James (Jim) A Crary · Denise D Krause · Tonia Moro · Cristian Mendoza Ruvalcaba · Kevin Stine | Brad Hicks | |
| 20 | Modeled D-vs-R | Mark Meek — 93 in 100 | Mark Meek | Michele Stroh | |
| 10 | Modeled D-vs-R | Deb Patterson — 95 in 100 | Deb Patterson | Angela Plowhead | |
| 6 | Modeled D-vs-R | Republican — 99 in 100 | Sierrah Williams | Jami Cate · Nicole De Graff · Jack Tibbetts | |
| 8 | Modeled D-vs-R | Sara Gelser Blouin — 99 in 100 | Sara Gelser Blouin | Valerie Draper Woldeit | |
| 24 | Modeled D-vs-R | Kayse Jama — 99 in 100 | Kayse Jama | — | |
| 15 | Modeled D-vs-R | Democratic — >99 in 100 | Myrna A Munoz · Nelly A Donis-Purcell · Janeen Sollman | Harold Hutchison |