Oregon · House · State Legislature

The Oregon House Safe D

This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →

Forecast · candidate-independent chamber model

Democrats are favored to hold control of the Oregon House.

Chance of D control96 in 100Expected Democratic seats 38.4 of 6080% range 36–41

D 3660 seats · 31 for a majorityR 24

PVID+8

Seats up in 202660

Chamber size60

Majority threshold31

District by district

60 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.

Rating band

Striped = seat changes partyModeled seats use forecast paint; legal carries and terrain remain explicitly distinct

Forecast margin — pale at Even, deep at safe

Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.

		Democrat	Republican
15	Shelly Boshart Davis — 65 in 100	Joanna Robinson	Shelly Boshart Davis	R+3.7
22	Lesly M Munoz — 70 in 100	Lesly M Munoz	Noemi Legaspi	D+5.0
32	Cyrus Javadi — 71 in 100	Cyrus Javadi	Adam Dean · Christian Honl · Max Sherman	D+5.4
21	Michael Welsh — 71 in 100	Michael Welsh	Kevin L Mannix · Art Stevenson	D+5.4
52	Democratic — 76 in 100	David Osborn · Nick Walden Poublon · Hank Sanders · Bernard R Seeger	Robert M Fleming · Scott C Hege · Darcy Lapier	D+6.9
12	Darin Harbick — 77 in 100	Amber Smith	Darin Harbick	R+7.2
6	Kim Wallan — 78 in 100	John P Holm	Kim Wallan	R+7.7
24	Lucetta A Elmer — 79 in 100	Andrew Brunello	Lucetta A Elmer	R+8.0
9	Republican — 80 in 100	John Ezra Scheirman	Troy Cribbins · Claire Lynn	R+8.4
48	Lamar Wise — 86 in 100	Lamar Wise	Andrew Morrison	D+10.4