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The North Carolina Senate Likely R

This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →

Forecast · candidate-independent chamber model

Republicans are favored to hold control of the North Carolina Senate.

Chance of R control83 in 100Expected Democratic seats 21.5 of 5080% range 1822
D 2050 seats · 26 for a majorityR 30
PVIR+1
Seats up in 202650
Chamber size50
Majority threshold26
District by district

50 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.

Rating band
Striped = seat changes partyModeled seats use forecast paint; legal carries and terrain remain explicitly distinct
Forecast margin — pale at Even, deep at safe

Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.

DemocratRepublican
18Republican — 52 in 100Haseeb FatmiCheryl Caulfield · Chris Stock · Brad Hessel (O)R+0.4
11Lisa Stone Barnes — 64 in 100James D. GailliardLisa Stone Barnes · Gavin Bell (O)R+3.5
13Lisa Grafstein — 69 in 100Lisa GrafsteinRobert van BrederodeD+4.9
7Michael Lee — 72 in 100Jessica BichlerMichael LeeR+5.6
42Mrs. Woodson Bradley — 75 in 100Mrs. Woodson BradleyStacie McGinnD+6.7
34Republican — 80 in 100April CookKevin Crutchfield · Chris MeasmerR+8.2
5Kandie D. Smith — 84 in 100Kandie D. SmithHenry Hostetler · Angelene MitchellD+9.7
4Buck Newton — 85 in 100Jessica (Jess) RiveraBuck NewtonR+10.1
1Republican — 94 in 100Melissa ZehnerDave Forsythe · Cole Johnson · Jay Lane · Jerry TillettR+15.0
24Danny Earl Britt, Jr. — 94 in 100Catina HammDanny Earl Britt, Jr.R+15.1
The Race Feed · 3 items across North Carolina races →