Missouri · House · State Legislature

The Missouri House Likely R

This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →

Forecast · candidate-independent chamber model

Republicans are favored to hold control of the Missouri House.

Chance of R control99 in 100Expected Democratic seats 56.6 of 16380% range 49–60

D 52163 seats · 82 for a majorityR 111

PVIR+9

Seats up in 2026163

Chamber size163

Majority threshold82

District by district

163 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.

Rating band

Striped = seat changes partyModeled seats use forecast paint; legal carries and terrain remain explicitly distinct

Forecast margin — pale at Even, deep at safe

Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.

		Democrat	Republican
16	Dan Kinate — 50 in 100	Dan Kinate	Chris Brown	D+0.1
17	Republican — 53 in 100	Shawna Ackerson · Susan Hoisington	Bill Allen	R+0.7
132	Jeremy Dean — 53 in 100	Jeremy Dean	Russ Gosselin	D+0.7
136	Stephanie Hein — 54 in 100	Stephanie Hein	Jacey Buckles	D+1.0
30	Kevin Grover — 54 in 100	Kevin Grover	Phyllis Edson · Jeff Martin	D+1.0
105	Cat Clayton — 55 in 100	Cat Clayton	Colin Wellenkamp	D+1.1
34	Kemp Strickler — 59 in 100	Kemp Strickler	Sean Smith	D+2.2
89	Republican — 60 in 100	Bryan Troop	George Hruza	R+2.4
29	Tedi H. Rowland — 61 in 100	Tedi H. Rowland	Robert Bruette	D+2.7
100	Mary Ann Perkins — 61 in 100	Mary Ann Perkins	Philip Oehlerking · Ken Newhouse (O)	D+2.8