This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →
Democrats are favored to hold control of the Massachusetts Senate.
40 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.
Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.
| Democrat | Republican | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D06 | Shannon M. Teabo — 51 in 100 | Shannon M. Teabo | Peter J. Durant | |
| D38 | Mark C.W. Montigny — 62 in 100 | Mark C.W. Montigny | Robert Scott McConnell | |
| D36 | Kelly A. Dooner — 69 in 100 | — | Kelly A. Dooner | |
| D07 | Ryan C. Fattman — 69 in 100 | — | Ryan C. Fattman | |
| D37 | Republican — 76 in 100 | Michael J. Rodrigues | Gabriel Boomer Amaral · Manny Silva | |
| D04 | Jacob R. Oliveira — 80 in 100 | Jacob R. Oliveira | — | |
| D02 | John Christopher Velis — 83 in 100 | John Christopher Velis | — | |
| D19 | Pavel M. Payano — 85 in 100 | Pavel M. Payano | — | |
| D39 | Dylan A. Fernandes — 86 in 100 | Dylan A. Fernandes | Kari Della MacRae | |
| D11 | Vanna Howard — 88 in 100 | Vanna Howard | Sam Meas |