Massachusetts · House · State Legislature

The Massachusetts House Safe D

This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →

Forecast · candidate-independent chamber model

Democrats are favored to hold control of the Massachusetts House.

Chance of D control>99 in 100Expected Democratic seats 134.6 of 16080% range 128–144

D 134159 seats · 81 for a majorityR 25

PVID+14

Seats up in 2026160

Chamber size160

Majority threshold81

District by district

160 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.

Rating band

Striped = seat changes partyModeled seats use forecast paint; legal carries and terrain remain explicitly distinct

Forecast margin — pale at Even, deep at safe No forecast — field unsettled or outside the D-vs-R model

Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.

			Democrat	Republican
49	Modeled D-vs-R	Republican — 50 in 100	Michael James Finn	—	R+0.0
138	Modeled D-vs-R	Republican — 50 in 100	Jessica Ann Giannino	—	R+0.1
115	Modeled D-vs-R	Republican — 51 in 100	Lori Childs	David F. DeCoste	R+0.3
15	Modeled D-vs-R	Carole A. Fiola — 52 in 100	Carole A. Fiola	Robert G. Anctil	D+0.5
148	Modeled D-vs-R	Republican — 52 in 100	Nicholas Lazzaro	Paul K. Frost	R+0.5
122	Modeled D-vs-R	Kathleen LaNatra — 52 in 100	Kathleen LaNatra	Eric J. Meschino	D+0.6
18	Modeled D-vs-R	Republican — 54 in 100	Stephen J. Medeiros · Edward M. Pacheco	Henry George Bousquet · Chester M. Tam	R+1.1
77	Modeled D-vs-R	David Allen Robertson — 56 in 100	David Allen Robertson	—	D+1.4
80	Modeled D-vs-R	Daniel Ronald Darris-O'Connor — 56 in 100	Daniel Ronald Darris-O'Connor	Marc T. Lombardo	D+1.6
47	Modeled D-vs-R	Republican — 57 in 100	Colby Walshe Hoffman	Kelly W. Pease	R+1.8