Idaho · Senate · State Legislature

The Idaho Senate Safe R

This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →

Forecast · candidate-independent chamber model

Republicans are favored to hold control of the Idaho Senate.

Chance of R control>99 in 100Expected Democratic seats 5.1 of 3580% range 4–6

D 635 seats · 18 for a majorityR 29

PVIR+18

Seats up in 202635

Chamber size35

Majority threshold18

District by district

35 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.

Rating band

Striped = seat changes partyModeled seats use forecast paint; legal carries and terrain remain explicitly distinct

Forecast margin — pale at Even, deep at safe

Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.

		Democrat	Republican
15	Desi Burbank — 71 in 100	Nancy Gregory	Desi Burbank	R+5.3
26	Bryan Hyde — 71 in 100	Ron Taylor	Bryan Hyde	R+5.4
29	John Crowder — 91 in 100	James D. Ruchti	John Crowder	R+13.0
17	Carrie Semmelroth — 91 in 100	Carrie Semmelroth	Benjamin Chafetz	D+13.5
6	Republican — 97 in 100	Richard Gayler · Robin Weldy	Dan Foreman · Lori McCann	R+18.6
16	Democratic — 98 in 100	Soñia Galaviz · Justin "Justice" Mitson	LeeJoe Lay · Geoffrey Surbeck	D+19.6
18	Janie Ward-Engelking — 99 in 100	Janie Ward-Engelking	—	D+23.4
22	Republican — >99 in 100	Karlie Easley	Lori Den Hartog · Josh Haver	R+28.9
33	Dave Lent — >99 in 100	Jan Brown	Dave Lent	R+29.8
21	Treg A. Bernt — >99 in 100	Brenda H. Quick	Treg A. Bernt	R+30.7