This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →
Democrats are favored to hold control of the Hawaii Senate.
25 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.
Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.
| Democrat | Republican | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Modeled D-vs-R | Republican — 67 in 100 | Mike GABBARD | — | |
| 20 | Modeled D-vs-R | Republican — 69 in 100 | Markus OWENS | Rida CABANILLA ARAKAWA · Kurt FEVELLA · Bob MCDERMOTT | |
| 19 | Modeled D-vs-R | Democratic — 74 in 100 | Rachele F. LAMOSAO · Inam Ikeda Perreira RAHMAN | Elijah PIERICK | |
| 15 | Modeled D-vs-R | Glenn WAKAI — 93 in 100 | Glenn WAKAI | — | |
| 17 | Modeled D-vs-R | Democratic — 95 in 100 | Nani H. BROWN · Donovan DELA CRUZ | — | |
| 14 | Modeled D-vs-R | Democratic — 97 in 100 | Donna Mercado KIM · Christy Kikue MACPHERSON | — | |
| 8 | Modeled D-vs-R | Ronald D. KOUCHI — 98 in 100 | Ronald D. KOUCHI | — | |
| 5 | Modeled D-vs-R | Troy N. HASHIMOTO — 99 in 100 | Troy N. HASHIMOTO | — | |
| 2 | Modeled D-vs-R | Democratic — >99 in 100 | Tanya Yamanaka AYNESSAZIAN · Joy SAN BUENAVENTURA | — · Frederick F. FOGEL (O) | |
| 25 | Modeled D-vs-R | Democratic — >99 in 100 | Chris LEE · Bobby SILVA | — |