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Hawaii · House · State Legislature

The Hawaii House Safe D

This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →

Forecast · candidate-independent chamber model

Democrats are favored to hold control of the Hawaii House.

Chance of D control>99 in 100Expected Democratic seats 43.1 of 5180% range 41–47
D 4251 seats · 26 for a majorityR 9
PVID+13
Seats up in 202651
Chamber size51
Majority threshold26
District by district

51 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.

Rating band
Striped = seat changes partyModeled seats use forecast paint; legal carries and terrain remain explicitly distinct
Forecast margin — pale at Even, deep at safe

Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.

DemocratRepublican
36Democratic — 57 in 100Eric C. BARSATAN · Daisy Balais HARTSFIELD · Maurice MORITA—D+1.7
30Democratic — 60 in 100Faatea S. FAATEA · Kekoa O Pololu KEALOHA · Shirley Ann TEMPLOAmanda YBANEZ · Angela Melody YOUNGD+2.4
43Republican — 60 in 100—Sheila MEDEIROS · Kanani SOUZAR+2.5
39Democratic — 61 in 100Loren Keola DOCTOLERO · Corey ROSENLEEDaniel (Danny) DEGRACIA · Wayne KAIWID+2.7
47Republican — 61 in 100Sean QUINLANMark TALAEAIR+2.8
41Republican — 61 in 100—David A., III ALCOSR+2.9
46Amy A. PERRUSO — 68 in 100Amy A. PERRUSODaniel Michael GABRIEL · Rocklin YOUNGSTROMD+4.6
42Diamond GARCIA — 74 in 100Anthony Makana PARISDiamond GARCIAR+6.3
40Julie REYES ODA — 81 in 100Rose MARTINEZJulie REYES ODAR+8.6
45Chris MURAOKA — 85 in 100Kalehua KAOPUAChris MURAOKAR+10.4