This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →
Republicans are favored to hold control of the Florida Senate.
40 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.
Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.
| Democrat | Republican | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Modeled D-vs-R | Republican — 57 in 100 | H. Alexander Duncan · John Lowndes | Jason Brodeur | |
| 26 | Modeled D-vs-R | David Silvers — 72 in 100 | David Silvers | Rick Roth | |
| 14 | Modeled D-vs-R | Josie Tomkow — 78 in 100 | Brian Nathan | Josie Tomkow | |
| 30 | Modeled D-vs-R | Lauren Book — 81 in 100 | Lauren Book | Hector Rivera · Jerusa Zitta | |
| 18 | Modeled D-vs-R | Nick DiCeglie — 84 in 100 | Linda Kellis Harris · Karla Kemp | Nick DiCeglie | |
| 24 | Modeled D-vs-R | Mack Bernard — 85 in 100 | Mack Bernard | Jackie Green | |
| 38 | Modeled D-vs-R | Alexis Maria Calatayud — 86 in 100 | Richard Lamondin Jr. | Alexis Maria Calatayud · Jeffrey "Doc" Solomon (O) | |
| 12 | Modeled D-vs-R | Colleen Burton — 95 in 100 | Alfred Reynolds | Colleen Burton | |
| 36 | Modeled D-vs-R | Ileana Garcia — 95 in 100 | George Lavin | Ileana Garcia | |
| 22 | Modeled D-vs-R | Republican — 97 in 100 | Lew Wasserman | James Buchanan · Vic Rohe · Martin Hyde (O) |