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The Delaware Senate Likely D

This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →

Forecast · candidate-independent chamber model

Democrats are favored to hold control of the Delaware Senate.

Chance of D control>99 in 100Expected Democratic seats 15.0 of 2180% range 1416
D 1521 seatsR 6
PVID+8
Seats up in 202611
Chamber size21
District by district

21 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.

Rating band
Striped = seat changes partyModeled seats use forecast paint; legal carries and terrain remain explicitly distinct
Forecast margin — pale at Even, deep at safe Not on the 2026 ballot (staggered term)

Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.

DemocratRepublican
14Modeled D-vs-RDemocratic — 89 in 100Chris Beardsley · Kyra L HoffnerMark PughD+11.9
19Modeled D-vs-RBrian G. Pettyjohn — 89 in 100Brian G. PettyjohnR+12.0
20Modeled D-vs-RGerald W. Hocker — 94 in 100Gerald W. HockerR+15.4
7Modeled D-vs-RDemocratic — 97 in 100Jose A. Lopez · Spiros MantzavinosChris RoweD+18.1
9Modeled D-vs-RDemocratic — 99 in 100Dawn Briggs · Jack WalshD+24.3
12Modeled D-vs-RDemocratic — >99 in 100Nicole Poore · Keonna WatsonMark EspositoD+26.0
8Modeled D-vs-RMara Gorman — >99 in 100Mara GormanShane CavanaughD+28.1
15Modeled D-vs-REmily A. Thompson — >99 in 100Nisha LodhaviaEmily A. ThompsonR+28.2
5Modeled D-vs-RDemocratic — >99 in 100Shay Frisby · Ray SeigfriedD+32.3
1Modeled D-vs-RDemocratic — >99 in 100Adriana Leela Bohm · Dan CruceD+47.3