This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →
Call the Map does not publish a binary control probability for the California Senate. The current district rows remain available below, with each publishable, structural, and unsettled seat labeled in its own claim class.
The district-by-district results for this chamber don't yet roll up into a chamber-wide total the model will stand behind, so no control probability is published. The seat estimate below is still the model's.
40 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.
Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.
| Democrat | Republican | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Modeled D-vs-R | Roger Niello — 55 in 100 | Sean Frame · Sara Velasco | Roger Niello | |
| 40 | Modeled D-vs-R | Mara Elliott — 65 in 100 | Mara Elliott | Kristie Bruce-Lane · Ed Musgrove | |
| 14 | Modeled D-vs-R | Democratic — 66 in 100 | Esmeralda Hurtado · Esmeralda Soria | Darin S. DuPont | |
| 36 | Modeled D-vs-R | Tony Strickland — 66 in 100 | Chris Duncan | Tony Strickland | |
| 16 | Modeled D-vs-R | Guillermo Asuncion Gonzalez — 82 in 100 | Melissa Hurtado · Manpreet Kaur | Guillermo Asuncion Gonzalez | |
| 4 | Modeled D-vs-R | Republican — 91 in 100 | Jaron Brandon | Alexandra Duarte · Marie Alvarado-Gil | |
| 38 | Modeled D-vs-R | Catherine S. Blakespear — 91 in 100 | Catherine S. Blakespear | Laura Bassett | |
| 18 | Modeled D-vs-R | Steve Padilla — 91 in 100 | Steve Padilla | Art Hodges | |
| 22 | Modeled D-vs-R | Susan Rubio — 93 in 100 | Susan Rubio | Mike Netter · R. R. Jimenez (O) | |
| 32 | Modeled D-vs-R | Kelly Seyarto — 94 in 100 | Tiffanie Tate | Kelly Seyarto |