Democrats are favored in the House. Democrats are slightly favored in the Senate.

What the model currently says

House

Democrats 79 in 100, Republicans 21 in 100 to control the chamber. Current calls: D 228 - R 207. Expected seats: D 231.8. Every House race →

Senate

Democrats 56 in 100, Republicans 44 in 100 to control the chamber. Current calls: D 51 - R 49. Expected seats: D 50.7, R 49.0, I 0.3. Every Senate race →

Governors

Of the 36 governorships up in 2026, current calls are D 16 - R 15. Expected Democratic wins: 19.0 of 36. Every governor race →

Four ways Congress can land

The chamber odds above are separate marginals; they cannot say how often the two land together, because the chambers move with a shared national environment. This reads the model’s joint simulation directly.

• Republicans win both chambers: 16 in 100
• Republican Senate, Democratic House: 28 in 100
• Democratic Senate, Republican House: 4 in 100
• Democrats win both chambers: 52 in 100

The largest moves since the last edition

The largest moves published between the previous edition and this one (1 day), across House, Senate and governor races.

• House · WI-01: +0.5 points
• Governors · Georgia: -0.3 points
• Senate · Georgia: +0.2 points

The closest contests

The smallest projected margins across all three chambers, closest first.

• House · NC-11: Tied, rated Toss-up
• Senate · Maine: D+0.1, rated Toss-up
• House · NY-17: D+0.1, rated Toss-up
• House · ME-02: D+0.4, rated Tilt R
• House · MI-07: D+0.4, rated Toss-up
• House · VA-01: D+0.5, rated Toss-up
• Governor · Ohio · Governor: D+0.5, rated Toss-up
• House · PA-08: R+0.6, rated Tilt R
• House · FL-22: R+0.7, rated Toss-up
• Senate · Kansas: D+0.7, rated Toss-up
• Governor · Oregon · Governor: R+0.7, rated Tilt R
• House · WI-03: D+0.8, rated Tilt D

Who is favored in every Senate race

All 35 Senate elections with a published forecast, as of October 4, 2026, closest first.

• Maine Senate (Toss-up): Troy Jackson ahead of Susan Collins, with a 53 in 100 chance of winning after ranked-choice transfers. The margin on first choices is D+0.1. No final-round margin is published.
• Kansas Senate (Toss-up): Adam Hamilton ahead of Roger Marshall by 0.7 points, with a 54 in 100 chance to win.
• Iowa Senate (Tilt R): Ashley Hinson ahead of Josh Turek by R+0.9, with a 56 in 100 chance to win.
• Texas Senate (Tilt D): James Talarico ahead of Ken Paxton by D+0.9, with a 56 in 100 chance to win.
• Ohio Senate (Tilt D): Sherrod Brown ahead of Jon Husted by D+1.4, with a 60 in 100 chance to win.
• Alaska Senate (Tilt R): Dan S. Sullivan ahead of Mary Peltola, with a 60 in 100 chance of winning after ranked-choice transfers. No final-round margin is published.
• Michigan Senate (Tilt D): Abdul El-Sayed ahead of Mike Rogers by D+2.0, with a 63 in 100 chance to win.
• Minnesota Senate (Tilt D): Peggy Flanagan ahead of Michele Tafoya by D+2.0, with a 63 in 100 chance to win.
• Mississippi Senate (Lean R): Cindy Hyde-Smith ahead of Scott Colom by 5.0 points, with a 70 in 100 chance to lead.
• Nebraska Senate (Lean R): Pete Ricketts ahead of Dan Osborn by 4.2 points, with a 75 in 100 chance to win.
• South Carolina Senate (Lean R): Darline Graham ahead of Annie Andrews by R+5.3, with a 77 in 100 chance to win.
• Montana Senate (Lean R): Kurt Alme ahead of Seth Bodnar by 17.6 points, with a 79 in 100 chance to lead.
• New Hampshire Senate (Lean D): Chris Pappas ahead of John Sununu by D+5.1, with an 81 in 100 chance to win.
• Florida Senate (Likely R): Ashley Moody ahead of Angie Nixon by R+7.8, with a 91 in 100 chance to win.
• North Carolina Senate (Likely D): Roy Cooper ahead of Michael Whatley by D+7.8, with a 91 in 100 chance to win.
• Arkansas Senate (Likely R): Tom Cotton ahead of Hallie Shoffner by R+11.1, with a 92 in 100 chance to win.
• Kentucky Senate (Likely R): Andy Barr ahead of Charles Booker by R+14.9, with a 94 in 100 chance to win.
• South Dakota Senate (Likely R): Mike Rounds ahead of Brian Bengs by 11.8 points, with a 95 in 100 chance to lead.
• Idaho Senate (Likely R): Jim Risch ahead of Todd Achilles by 13.4 points, with a 97 in 100 chance to lead.
• Louisiana Senate (Likely R): Julia Letlow ahead of Jamie Davis by R+17.3, with a 97 in 100 chance to win.
• Georgia Senate (Solid D): Jon Ossoff ahead of Mike Collins by D+8.8 in the first round, with a 98 in 100 chance to win, runoff included.
• Illinois Senate (Solid D): Juliana Stratton ahead of Don Tracy by D+20.8, with a 98 in 100 chance to win.
• Alabama Senate (Solid R): Barry Moore ahead of Everett Wess by R+19.1, with a 98 in 100 chance to win.
• New Mexico Senate (Solid D): Ben Ray Luján ahead of Larry Marker by D+19.2, with a 98 in 100 chance to win.
• New Jersey Senate (Solid D): Cory Booker ahead of Justin Murphy by D+24.2, with a 99 in 100 chance to win.
• Virginia Senate (Solid D): Mark Warner ahead of Bert Mizusawa by D+22.3, with a 99 in 100 chance to win.
• Colorado Senate (Solid D): John Hickenlooper ahead of Mark Baisley by D+26.5, with a 99 in 100 chance to win.
• Oregon Senate (Solid D): Jeff Merkley ahead of David Brock Smith by D+30.5, with a 99 in 100 chance to win.
• Oklahoma Senate (Solid R): Kevin Hern ahead of N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas by R+24.8, with a 99 in 100 chance to win.
• Delaware Senate (Solid D): Chris Coons ahead of Michael Katz by D+31.7, with a 99 in 100 chance to win.
• Wyoming Senate (Solid R): Harriet Hageman ahead of James Byrd by R+33.6, with a >99 in 100 chance to win.
• West Virginia Senate (Solid R): Shelley Moore Capito ahead of Rachel Fetty Anderson by R+36.9, with a >99 in 100 chance to win.
• Tennessee Senate (Solid R): Bill Hagerty ahead of Marquita Bradshaw by R+27.7, with a >99 in 100 chance to win.
• Rhode Island Senate (Solid D): Jack Reed ahead of Raymond McKay by D+28.2, with a >99 in 100 chance to win.
• Massachusetts Senate (Solid D): Ed Markey ahead of John Deaton by D+30.6, with a >99 in 100 chance to win.

Who is favored in every governor’s race

All 36 governor’s races with a published forecast, as of October 4, 2026, closest first.

• Ohio governor (Toss-up): Amy Acton ahead of Vivek Ramaswamy by D+0.5, with a 53 in 100 chance to win.
• Oregon governor (Tilt R): Christine Drazan ahead of Tina Kotek by R+0.7, with a 55 in 100 chance to win.
• Georgia governor (Tilt R): Rick Jackson ahead of Keisha Lance Bottoms by R+1.1 in the first round, with a 57 in 100 chance to win, runoff included.
• Wisconsin governor (Tilt D): David Crowley ahead of Tom Tiffany by D+1.9, with a 61 in 100 chance to win.
• Nevada governor (Lean R): Joe Lombardo ahead of Aaron Ford by R+4.9, with a 79 in 100 chance to win.
• Nebraska governor (Lean R): Jim Pillen ahead of Lynne Walz by 6.0 points, with an 80 in 100 chance to win.
• Rhode Island governor (Lean D): Helena Foulkes ahead of Ken Block by 18.8 points, with an 81 in 100 chance to lead.
• Florida governor (Lean R): Byron Donalds ahead of David Jolly by R+5.9, with an 81 in 100 chance to win.
• Iowa governor (Lean D): Rob Sand ahead of Zach Lahn by D+6.5, with an 83 in 100 chance to win.
• Kansas governor (Lean R): Ty Masterson ahead of Cindy Holscher by R+6.9, with an 84 in 100 chance to win.
• Alaska governor (Likely D): Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins ahead of Bernadette Wilson, with an 85 in 100 chance of winning after ranked-choice transfers. No final-round margin is published.
• Michigan governor (Likely D): Jocelyn Benson ahead of John James by D+7.1, with an 85 in 100 chance to win.
• Arizona governor (Likely D): Katie Hobbs ahead of Andy Biggs by D+6.4, with an 86 in 100 chance to win.
• Minnesota governor (Likely D): Amy Klobuchar ahead of Lisa Demuth by D+8.2, with an 88 in 100 chance to win.
• New Mexico governor (Likely D): Deb Haaland ahead of Gregg Hull by D+9.3, with a 90 in 100 chance to win.
• Texas governor (Likely R): Greg Abbott ahead of Gina Hinojosa by R+7.7, with a 90 in 100 chance to win.
• Oklahoma governor (Likely R): Mike Mazzei ahead of Cyndi Munson by R+11.1, with a 92 in 100 chance to win.
• Arkansas governor (Likely R): Sarah Huckabee Sanders ahead of Fredrick Love by R+10.2, with a 93 in 100 chance to win.
• Maine governor (Likely D): Hannah Pingree ahead of Bobby Charles by 12.1 points, with a 95 in 100 chance to win.
• Vermont governor (Likely R): Phil Scott ahead of Amanda Janoo by R+10.7, with a 95 in 100 chance to win.
• South Carolina governor (Likely R): Alan Wilson ahead of Jermaine Johnson by R+12.8, with a 95 in 100 chance to win.
• Alabama governor (Likely R): Tommy Tuberville ahead of Doug Jones by R+14.5, with a 97 in 100 chance to win.
• New York governor (Likely D): Kathy Hochul ahead of Bruce Blakeman by D+12.5, with a 97 in 100 chance to win.
• Idaho governor (Likely R): Brad Little ahead of Terri Pickens by 23.9 points, with a 97 in 100 chance to win.
• New Hampshire governor (Solid R): Kelly Ayotte ahead of Cinde Warmington by R+15.5, with a 98 in 100 chance to win.
• Connecticut governor (Solid D): Ned Lamont ahead of Ryan Fazio by D+16.1, with a 98 in 100 chance to win.
• Tennessee governor (Solid R): Marsha Blackburn ahead of Jerri Green by R+19.9, with a 99 in 100 chance to win.
• Colorado governor (Solid D): Phil Weiser ahead of Victor Marx by D+21.3, with a 99 in 100 chance to win.
• South Dakota governor (Solid R): Larry Rhoden ahead of Dan Ahlers by R+20.0, with a 99 in 100 chance to win.
• Pennsylvania governor (Solid D): Josh Shapiro ahead of Stacy Garrity by D+22.7, with a 99 in 100 chance to win.
• Massachusetts governor (Solid D): Maura Healey ahead of Michael Minogue by D+25.1, with a 99 in 100 chance to win.
• California governor (Solid D): Xavier Becerra ahead of Steve Hilton by D+24.2, with a 99 in 100 chance to win.
• Illinois governor (Solid D): JB Pritzker ahead of Darren Bailey by D+29.3, with a 99 in 100 chance to win.
• Wyoming governor (Solid R): Eric Barlow ahead of Kenneth Casner by R+29.8, with a 99 in 100 chance to win.
• Maryland governor (Solid D): Wes Moore ahead of Dan Cox by D+30.3, with a 99 in 100 chance to win.
• Hawaii governor (Solid D): Josh Green ahead of Gary Cordery by D+37.6, with a >99 in 100 chance to win.

The competitive House districts

The 75 of 435 House districts where the leader’s published chance is under 90 in 100, as of October 4, 2026, closest first. All 435 districts →

• NC-11 (Toss-up): Jennifer Balkcom ahead of Jamie Ager by Tied, with a 50 in 100 chance to win.
• NY-17 (Toss-up): Cait Conley ahead of Mike Lawler by D+0.1, with a 51 in 100 chance to win.
• MI-07 (Toss-up): William Lawrence ahead of Tom Barrett by D+0.4, with a 53 in 100 chance to win.
• VA-01 (Toss-up): Shannon Taylor ahead of Rob Wittman by D+0.5, with a 54 in 100 chance to win.
• FL-22 (Toss-up): Casey Askar ahead of Pia Dandiya by R+0.7, with a 54 in 100 chance to win.
• PA-08 (Tilt R): Rob Bresnahan ahead of Paige Cognetti by R+0.6, with a 55 in 100 chance to win.
• WI-03 (Tilt D): Rebecca Cooke ahead of Derrick Van Orden by D+0.8, with a 55 in 100 chance to win.
• MT-01 (Tilt R): Aaron Flint ahead of Sam Forstag by R+0.8, with a 55 in 100 chance to win.
• MI-10 (Tilt R): Michael Bouchard Jr. ahead of Christina Hines by R+0.9, with a 56 in 100 chance to win.
• CA-40 (Solid R): Young Kim ahead of Ken Calvert by 2.9 points, with a 56 in 100 chance to win.
• CA-34 (Solid D): Angela Gonzales-Torres ahead of Jimmy Gomez by 3.8 points, with a 58 in 100 chance to win.
• ME-02 (Tilt R): Paul LePage ahead of Matthew Dunlap, with a 58 in 100 chance of winning after ranked-choice transfers. The margin on first choices is D+0.4. No final-round margin is published.
• VA-02 (Tilt D): Elaine Luria ahead of Jen Kiggans by D+1.1, with a 58 in 100 chance to win.
• IA-03 (Tilt R): Zach Nunn ahead of Sarah Trone Garriott by R+1.3, with a 59 in 100 chance to win.
• MO-02 (Tilt R): Ann Wagner ahead of Fred Wellman by R+1.5, with a 61 in 100 chance to win.
• IA-02 (Tilt R): Joe Mitchell ahead of Lindsay James by R+1.9, with a 62 in 100 chance to win.
• OH-09 (Tilt R): Derek Merrin ahead of Marcy Kaptur by R+1.6, with a 62 in 100 chance to win.
• CO-03 (Tilt R): Jeff Hurd ahead of Dwayne Romero by R+1.7, with a 62 in 100 chance to win.
• AZ-06 (Tilt D): JoAnna Mendoza ahead of Juan Ciscomani by D+1.7, with a 62 in 100 chance to win.
• MI-04 (Tilt R): Bill Huizenga ahead of Sean McCann by R+1.6, with a 62 in 100 chance to win.
• FL-25 (Tilt D): Jared Moskowitz ahead of Scott Singer by D+2.1, with a 63 in 100 chance to win.
• WA-03 (Tilt D): Marie Gluesenkamp Perez ahead of John Braun by D+1.7, with a 63 in 100 chance to win.
• TX-34 (Tilt D): Vicente Gonzalez ahead of Eric Flores by D+1.8, with a 63 in 100 chance to win.
• CA-07 (Solid D): Mai Vang ahead of Doris Matsui by 6.8 points, with a 63 in 100 chance to win.
• TX-35 (Lean R): Carlos De La Cruz ahead of Johnny Garcia by R+2.4, with a 65 in 100 chance to win.
• TX-15 (Lean D): Bobby Pulido ahead of Monica De La Cruz by D+2.1, with a 66 in 100 chance to win.
• WI-01 (Lean R): Bryan Steil ahead of Mitchell Berman by R+2.1, with a 66 in 100 chance to win.
• CO-08 (Lean D): Manny Rutinel ahead of Gabe Evans by D+2.3, with a 66 in 100 chance to win.
• AK-AL (Lean R): Nick Begich ahead of Bill Hill, with a 67 in 100 chance of winning after ranked-choice transfers. No final-round margin is published.
• IA-01 (Lean D): Christina Bohannan ahead of Mariannette Miller-Meeks by D+2.6, with a 68 in 100 chance to win.
• NV-02 (Lean R): Dave Flippo ahead of Teresa Benitez-Thompson by R+2.9, with a 68 in 100 chance to win.
• PA-10 (Lean D): Janelle Stelson ahead of Scott Perry by D+2.6, with a 68 in 100 chance to win.
• FL-16 (Lean R): Sydney Gruters ahead of Kelly Kirschner by R+3.0, with a 68 in 100 chance to win.
• CA-11 (Solid D): Scott Wiener ahead of Connie Chan by 9.7 points, with a 69 in 100 chance to win.
• NY-01 (Lean R): Nick LaLota ahead of Chris Gallant by R+2.8, with a 69 in 100 chance to win.
• CA-22 (Lean D): Randy Villegas ahead of David G. Valadao by D+2.7, with a 69 in 100 chance to win.
• AL-02 (Lean R): Rhett Marques ahead of Shomari Figures by R+2.7, with a 69 in 100 chance to win.
• CO-05 (Lean R): Jeff Crank ahead of Jessica Killin by R+2.9, with a 70 in 100 chance to win.
• KY-06 (Lean R): Ralph Alvarado ahead of Zach Dembo by R+3.1, with a 70 in 100 chance to win.
• AR-02 (Lean R): French Hill ahead of Chris Jones by R+3.0, with a 71 in 100 chance to win.
• MN-01 (Lean R): Brad Finstad ahead of Jake Johnson by R+3.4, with a 73 in 100 chance to win.
• AZ-01 (Lean D): Amish Shah ahead of Jay Feely by D+4.2, with a 74 in 100 chance to win.
• PA-07 (Lean D): Bob Brooks ahead of Ryan Mackenzie by D+3.5, with a 74 in 100 chance to win.
• FL-09 (Lean R): Dan Green ahead of Darren Soto by R+3.7, with a 75 in 100 chance to win.
• FL-13 (Lean R): Anna Paulina Luna ahead of Leela Gray by R+3.7, with a 76 in 100 chance to win.
• FL-11 (Lean R): Joe Strada ahead of James Pericola by R+4.5, with a 76 in 100 chance to win.
• FL-07 (Lean R): Ryan Elijah ahead of Bale Dalton by R+4.8, with a 77 in 100 chance to win.
• GA-11 (Lean R): John Cowan ahead of Chris Harden by R+8.5 in the first round, with a 77 in 100 chance to win, runoff included.
• NC-01 (Lean D): Don Davis ahead of Laurie Buckhout by D+4.1, with a 77 in 100 chance to win.
• NJ-07 (Lean D): Rebecca Bennett ahead of Thomas Kean Jr. by D+4.2, with a 78 in 100 chance to win.
• OH-15 (Lean R): Mike Carey ahead of Don Leonard by R+4.4, with a 79 in 100 chance to win.
• OH-07 (Lean D): Brian Poindexter ahead of Max Miller by D+4.3, with a 79 in 100 chance to win.
• TX-28 (Lean D): Henry Cuellar ahead of Tano Tijerina by D+4.4, with a 79 in 100 chance to win.
• FL-27 (Lean R): Maria Elvira Salazar ahead of Eliott Rodriguez by R+4.4, with an 80 in 100 chance to win.
• SC-01 (Lean R): Jenny Costa Honeycutt ahead of Nancy Lacore by R+5.0, with an 80 in 100 chance to win.
• CA-48 (Lean D): Marni von Wilpert ahead of Jim Desmond by D+5.3, with an 80 in 100 chance to win.
• NE-01 (Lean R): Mike Flood ahead of Chris Backemeyer by R+4.6, with an 80 in 100 chance to win.
• OH-01 (Lean D): Greg Landsman ahead of Eric Conroy by D+4.9, with an 81 in 100 chance to win.
• FL-14 (Lean D): Kathy Castor ahead of Mike Beltran by D+5.1, with an 82 in 100 chance to win.
• PA-01 (Lean R): Brian Fitzpatrick ahead of Bob Harvie by R+4.8, with an 82 in 100 chance to win.
• VA-05 (Lean R): John McGuire ahead of Tom Perriello by R+5.1, with an 83 in 100 chance to win.
• NE-02 (Lean D): Denise Powell ahead of Brinker Harding by D+6.2, with an 83 in 100 chance to win.
• TX-23 (Lean R): Brandon Herrera ahead of Katy Padilla Stout by R+6.4, with an 83 in 100 chance to win.
• NY-21 (Lean R): Anthony Constantino ahead of Blake Gendebien by R+6.0, with an 84 in 100 chance to win.
• NJ-02 (Lean R): Jeff Van Drew ahead of Zack Mullock by R+5.9, with an 84 in 100 chance to win.
• CO-04 (Likely R): Lauren Boebert ahead of Eileen Laubacher by R+6.4, with an 86 in 100 chance to win.
• NM-02 (Likely D): Gabe Vasquez ahead of Greg Cunningham by D+6.1, with an 86 in 100 chance to win.
• NC-03 (Likely R): Greg Murphy ahead of Raymond Smith Jr. by R+6.6, with an 88 in 100 chance to win.
• UT-02 (Likely R): Blake Moore ahead of Peter Crosby by R+7.2, with an 88 in 100 chance to win.
• AZ-02 (Likely R): Eli Crane ahead of Jonathan Nez by R+6.5, with an 88 in 100 chance to win.
• WA-05 (Likely R): Michael Baumgartner ahead of Carmela Conroy by R+6.9, with an 88 in 100 chance to win.
• NH-01 (Likely D): Stefany Shaheen ahead of Anthony DiLorenzo by D+7.6, with an 88 in 100 chance to win.
• GA-07 (Likely R): Rich McCormick ahead of Anthony Kozycki by R+11.8 in the first round, with an 88 in 100 chance to win, runoff included.
• MN-08 (Likely R): Pete Stauber ahead of Trina Swanson by R+7.4, with a 90 in 100 chance to win.
• FL-04 (Likely R): Aaron Bean ahead of LaShonda Holloway by R+7.5, with a 90 in 100 chance to win.

Honest uncertainty

A chance of winning is a statement about a distribution, not a prediction: a race at 75 in 100 should lose about one time in four, and when that happens the forecast is working, not broken. A race rated close can still resolve decisively on election night, and a race rated safe can still surprise. These figures update as new polling, fundraising and structural evidence arrive — sometimes several times a day — and every published edition of them is kept, never edited after the fact.

Not affiliated with, authorized by or paid for by any news organization, candidate, campaign, party or committee. No expert ratings feed the current model.

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