Official counts from the states · updated Nov 7, 6:36 PM EST

The vote moved 14.5 points toward Democrats

Taken together, the top races in 3,111 counties in 49 states moved 14.5 points toward the Democrats from the 2024 presidential vote (R+1.6 then, D+12.9 this year). 47 of 49 states with most of their vote compared moved toward the Democrats from 2024. The two exceptions are Maine, whose Senate race moved 0.8 points toward the Republicans and Vermont, whose governor's race moved 38.4 points toward the Republicans.

Of the 3,112 counties with an official count read, 3,111 are compared: a county counts once a quarter of its 2024 vote is in (one is still short of that), and a state is ranked once those counties hold half its 2024 vote. Every figure updates as the count grows.

Where the vote moved, state by state

The 49 states with most of their vote compared, ranked by how far their counties moved from 2024. Choose one, or step through them, for its counties, its races and its biggest movers.

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Texas: 25.8 points toward the Democrats

James Talarico, the Democrat, flipped Texas's Senate seat, winning by 12.1 points, in a state Donald Trump carried by 13.7 points in 2024.

Across its 254 compared counties the vote moved 25.8 points toward the Democrats, from R+13.7 to D+12.1. That is the largest move of the 47 states shown that moved toward the Democrats.

28 counties voted for a different party than for president in 2024, all for the Democrat.

The biggest move was Starr County, from R+16.0 in 2024 to D+55.8.

Texas's governor's race moved 20.8 points toward the Democrats from 2024. Gina Hinojosa, the Democrat, won by 7.1 points.

Texas Senate Texas Governor

Where do you live?

Choose a county and every map and chart on this page marks it, with every race counted there and how far it moved.

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How the vote moved from 2024

Each county is shown by the top race on its ballot this year: the Senate, else the governor, else the House vote added across its districts. It is set against how the county voted for president in 2024. Scroll, and the map follows.

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The country

2,980 of 3,111 counties moved toward the Democrats

Each county is colored by how far its vote in this year's top race moved from the 2024 presidential vote. Of the 3,111 counties with at least a quarter of their 2024 vote counted, 2,980 moved toward the Democrats.

Added together, they went from R+1.6 for president in 2024 to D+12.9 this year, a move of 14.5 points.

How far

563 counties moved 20 points or more toward the Democrats

Each arrow is one county, pointing left for a move toward the Democrats and right for a move toward the Republicans, longer for a bigger move and thicker for more votes. The county in the middle moved 14.0 points toward the Democrats.

The 563 are lit, each with its arrow; every other county is faded.

The region

Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Arkansas moved most

Of the nine regions the Census Bureau draws, Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Arkansas together moved furthest: 24.4 points toward the Democrats across 470 counties, from R+18.0 to D+6.5.

New England moved least, 4.0 points toward the Democrats.

The state that moved most

Texas: 25.8 points toward the Democrats

James Talarico, the Democrat, flipped Texas's Senate seat, winning by 12.1 points, in a state Donald Trump carried by 13.7 points in 2024.

Across its compared counties the vote moved 25.8 points toward the Democrats, the most of any state with a Senate or governor's race.

28 of its 254 counties voted for a different party than for president in 2024, every one of them for the Democrat.

The biggest move was Starr County, from R+16.0 in 2024 to D+55.8.

The race that moved furthest

Oklahoma's governor's race moved 28.2 points toward the Democrats

Mike Mazzei, the Republican, won Oklahoma's governor's race by 6.0 points, in a state Donald Trump carried by 34.3 points in 2024. That is the largest move of any Senate or governor's race not shown above.

On the same ballot, Oklahoma's Senate race moved 16.3 points toward the Democrats; Kevin Hern, the Republican, won it by 17.9 points.

Against the tide

Vermont moved toward the Republicans

Vermont moved the other way, 38.4 points toward the Republicans across its compared counties. Phil Scott, the Republican, won Vermont's governor's race by 6.6 points, in a state Kamala Harris carried by 31.8 points in 2024.

Two states moved toward the Republicans: Vermont and Maine.

Every one of Vermont's 14 compared counties moved 20 points or more that way, the only counties in the country to move so far toward the Republicans.

Changed sides

269 counties voted for the other party

269 of the compared counties voted for a different party in this year's top race than for president in 2024: 259 for the Democrat and 10 for the Republican.

The most were in Texas, 28.

The result

And who carried each county

The same counties by this year's result: the Democrat carried 700, the Republican 2,411. Most counties are small and rural, so the map stays mostly red in a year the vote moved toward the Democrats.

Point at any county, or find your own below, for every race counted there.

Furthest from 2024

Measured against the 2024 presidential vote on the same ground, not against a forecast. Only decided races count. A race still being counted joins once it is called.

Decided races with a Democrat against a Republican, by how far the result sits from the 2024 presidential vote on the same ground (the state, or the district as it is drawn now).

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Point at a row to find it on the map. The map is each county's move from 2024 in its top race.

Democratic candidates drew 98 votes for every 100 Harris won; Republicans drew 62 for every 100 Trump won

In the 166 counties whose counting offices mark the count finished (4 states, 4.5 million 2024 presidential votes), the Democrat at the top of this year's ballot drew 98.0 votes for every 100 Harris received there, and the Republican 61.7 for every 100 Trump received. In 30 of the 31 states whose top race is at least 95% counted, the Democrat's figure is the higher of the two; Maine is the exception (86 against 88). In Texas, South Carolina and Kansas the Democrat drew more votes than Harris did.

Texas66.5112.6
South Carolina
Kansas
Alabama
Hawaii
Rhode Island
North Carolina
New Mexico
Georgia
Louisiana
West Virginia
Wyoming
New Jersey
Iowa
Arizona
Virginia
Tennessee
Ohio
Colorado
Illinois
Nebraska
Delaware
New Hampshire
Florida
Nevada
Michigan
New York
Massachusetts
Minnesota
Connecticut
Maine88.086.3

Table: every state’s two figures

State	Race	Democrat per 100 Harris votes	Republican per 100 Trump votes	Counted
Texas	Senate	112.6	66.5	98%
South Carolina	Senate	101.5	64.2	99%
Kansas	Senate	103.0	66.6	98%
Alabama	Senate	98.2	62.8	97%
Hawaii	Governor	89.0	54.2	96%
Rhode Island	Senate	83.9	49.1	95%
North Carolina	Senate	90.9	56.7	97%
New Mexico	Senate	95.8	62.9	97%
Georgia	Senate	96.8	64.3	98%
Louisiana	Senate	93.9	61.7	97%
West Virginia	Senate	80.7	49.9	99%
Wyoming	Senate	93.6	63.4	99%
New Jersey	Senate	82.2	52.0	97%
Iowa	Senate	97.1	68.0	98%
Arizona	Governor	89.4	61.1	96%
Virginia	Senate	94.2	66.5	98%
Tennessee	Senate	84.0	57.9	96%
Ohio	Senate	90.8	65.3	98%
Colorado	Senate	93.0	67.7	97%
Illinois	Senate	81.6	61.7	96%
Nebraska	Governor	86.8	67.5	98%
Delaware	Senate	82.9	64.3	99%
New Hampshire	Senate	85.1	67.9	97%
Florida	Senate	84.9	68.9	96%
Nevada	Governor	79.7	63.8	98%
Michigan	Senate	91.6	77.1	98%
New York	Governor	78.2	67.5	96%
Massachusetts	Senate	77.6	66.9	96%
Minnesota	Senate	91.8	81.2	98%
Connecticut	Governor	77.8	71.1	95%
Maine	Senate	86.3	88.0	97%

The vote fell most where Trump was strongest: 65 votes for every 100 of 2024's in finished counties Trump won by 50 points or more, 80 where the 2024 margin was within 10 points. Inside each state, the counties where the vote fell further swung further toward the Democrats, about 0.3 points for each extra point of fall-off (r = -0.28).

A county counts once its counting office marks it finished. Each state's top race, the Senate or else the governor, Democrat against Republican; Vermont left out. These are vote totals, not voters: they cannot say who stayed home or who switched, and a race's total leaves out ballots that skipped it. The other 1,180 counties of races at least 97% counted give 95.6 and 67.5.

The finished counties, state by state

West Virginia, 55 of 55; South Carolina, 46 of 46; Georgia, 42 of 159; Wyoming, 23 of 23.

What the places that moved have in common

The fifth of the vote in the counties with the fewest college graduates shifted 4.8 points more Democratic than the fifth with the most: 16.0 pts → D against 11.2 pts → D. In counties where at least 30% of residents are Hispanic, the shift from 2024 was 18.5 pts → D; where at least 85% of residents are white and not Hispanic, 12.3 pts → D.

Each county’s move from 2024 against Census Bureau figures on who lives there. Choose a measure and narrow to a region or a state. The line is refitted on the counties that remain.

Counties in

Drag across the chart, or use the sliders under it, to pick a band; draw around places on the map to pick them; the counties you pick light up on both, and a table of them opens underneath.

From To Every county

Barely related across counties. On average, each 10 more points of adults with a degree went with a county about 1.4 points more Republican (r = −0.19).

Counties: 3,111
Votes counted: 115,666,660
Correlation (r): −0.19
Shown: All counties

County patterns, not exit polls. Each bubble is a place, and the line says how places with more of something moved on average. It cannot say how any group of people voted: a county with more college graduates that moved toward the Democrats may have moved because of the voters without degrees who live there.

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Table: the shift by fifths of the vote, for each measure

Measure and range	Counties	Votes counted	Shift from 2024	Against its state, average
College graduates
0–25%	2,016	23,330,458	16.0 pts → D	0.9 pts → R
25–33%	581	22,736,397	15.3 pts → D	0.3 pts → R
33–37%	184	23,335,642	15.0 pts → D	0.2 pts → D
37–45%	174	23,005,708	12.3 pts → D	0.8 pts → R
45–80%	156	23,258,455	11.2 pts → D	2.5 pts → R
White non-Hispanic residents
2–41%	250	23,763,526	17.4 pts → D	2.0 pts → D
41–56%	319	22,539,385	15.0 pts → D	1.3 pts → R
56–69%	429	23,096,126	13.9 pts → D	1.1 pts → R
69–81%	531	23,052,635	13.8 pts → D	1.8 pts → R
81–100%	1,582	23,214,988	12.8 pts → D	2.3 pts → R
Density
0.0–120 per sq mi	2,331	23,143,176	13.6 pts → D	2.3 pts → R
120–405 per sq mi	449	23,109,388	14.5 pts → D	1.3 pts → R
406–870 per sq mi	160	23,159,385	14.5 pts → D	0.4 pts → R
877–1,980 per sq mi	100	22,885,649	13.8 pts → D	0.7 pts → R
1,984–71,842 per sq mi	71	23,369,062	14.5 pts → D	0.2 pts → D

The redder the state, the bigger its swing. Inside each state, the reddest counties moved least.

States Trump won by 20 or more swung 17.0 points toward the Democrats on average; states Harris won by 20 or more, 8.6.

Point at a state for its own counties on the right.

Inside states the order reverses: counties Trump won by 60 or more moved 3.4 points less than their own state, counties outside any metro or micropolitan area 3.0 points less, and central counties of metro areas 0.4 points more.

Trump +60 or more−3.4
Trump +40 to 60−1.1
Trump +20 to 40−0.7
Trump +10 to 20+0.2
Trump by under 10+1.0
Harris by under 10+0.8
Harris +10 to 20+0.5
Harris +20 to 40+0.2
Harris +40 or more+0.2

States: 58 Senate and governor's races at least 85% counted, Vermont's governor's race left out (r = -0.35); each state's House vote, 43 states, r = -0.41. Counties: 2,507 of 3,112, with the top race at least 90% counted and a quarter of the 2024 vote in, Vermont's left out; a band's move is its counties' votes added up, less their states'. Places, not people.

How far each state moved from 2024, measured on the House vote

Pick a 2026 race and what to set it against: the president in 2024 or 2020, the 2024 House vote in the same districts, the seat’s last Senate race, the last governor’s race, or another 2026 race on the same ballot. Each state’s move is shown on its own, or against the nation’s own move over the same states.

compared with

Each state’s move from its margin for president in 2024. Over all 49 states: 14.0 toward the Democrats.

House: every district with a Democrat against a Republican, votes added up by state, against the 2024 presidential vote in the same districts as drawn this year. Uncontested seats are left out. States runoff-bound or in ranked-choice rounds are left out until they finish. A pale bar and * mark a state our estimate has under 95% counted.

Democrats carried 25 metro areas Trump won in 2024

Of the 84 metropolitan areas with at least 250,000 votes in 2024 whose counties are counted, Trump carried 25 that voted for the Democrat at the top of this year's ballot, Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, Charlotte, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati the largest of them. El Paso moved most, 32.8 points toward the Democrats, 8.4 more than Texas. Portland, Maine (0.3), Baltimore (0.2) and Buffalo (1.2) moved least.

Find a metro area

El PasoEl Paso, TX32.8 pts → D
ScrantonScranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA28.9 pts → D
HoustonHouston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX26.8 pts → D
AllentownAllentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ25.8 pts → D
PittsburghPittsburgh, PA25.5 pts → D
Winston-SalemWinston-Salem, NC24.9 pts → D
GreenvilleGreenville-Anderson-Greer, SC24.8 pts → D
San AntonioSan Antonio-New Braunfels, TX24.2 pts → D
ColumbiaColumbia, SC23.8 pts → D
DallasDallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX23.8 pts → D
HarrisburgHarrisburg-Carlisle, PA23.4 pts → D
GreensboroGreensboro-High Point, NC23.3 pts → D
RaleighRaleigh-Cary, NC23.2 pts → D
BirminghamBirmingham, AL23.1 pts → D
CharlotteCharlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC22.8 pts → D

23 of the 107 metro areas that size are left out, under 90% of their 2024 vote in counties counted enough to compare: Bakersfield, Fresno, Indianapolis, Jackson, Los Angeles, Ogden, Oxnard, Provo, Riverside, Sacramento, Salt Lake City, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, Santa Rosa, Seattle, Spokane and Stockton (no county counted enough yet); Kansas City (42%), Louisville (79%), Memphis (78%), Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA (79%) and St. Louis (24%). Each area is measured on its counties' top races, the Senate or else the governor; the move against its state takes most of that difference out.

How this is figured

The shift. A county’s margin is the Democrat’s votes minus the Republican’s, as a share of all votes cast. The shift is its margin this year in its state’s top race minus its margin for president in 2024. It sets one office against another, so a candidate’s own following moves it along with the national mood. Only Democrat-against-Republican races are included.

Which counties. A county is compared once its count reaches 25% of its 2024 presidential vote, since the first ballots counted are not always like the rest. Of the 3,112 counties with an official count read, 3,111 pass. The map leaves the others pale.

Regions. The Census Bureau’s four regions and nine divisions, as the Bureau draws them. A region’s or a state’s move adds its compared counties’ votes together.

The surprises. Each race is measured against the 2024 presidential vote on its own ground: the state for a statewide race, the district as drawn this year for a House race. Only decided races with a Democrat against a Republican are ranked. The closest finishes list takes races between any two candidates.

Votes kept, metro areas, red and blue places. Votes for every 100 of 2024’s are a party’s votes in its state’s top race over its presidential nominee’s in the same counties, added up. Metro areas are the Office of Management and Budget’s July 2023 metropolitan statistical areas. Those three sections compare a county only where its top race is at least 90% counted (the counties the counting office marks finished, for the votes kept), so they cover fewer counties than the map above; each says how many.

Groups and lines. A group’s shift adds its counties’ votes together. The fitted lines are least squares with each county weighted by its votes counted, and r is the weighted correlation. They show how the shift and each measure go together across counties. They do not say why, and they say nothing about how any group of people voted. “Against its state” subtracts the state’s own swing from each county’s.

Sources. Votes: each state’s election office, read directly. The 2024 presidential returns are the same county returns every results page compares with. People: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019–2023 five-year estimates, tables B01003 (population), B03002 (Hispanic origin by race), B15003 (education, 25 and over) and B19013 (median household income); land area from the 2023 Gazetteer files. Read November 4, 2026. Urban, suburban and rural are our own cut by density, not the Bureau’s classification. Connecticut is its nine planning regions, as in its count.