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2026 midtermsResults

2026 results · power · the redraws

Seven states redrew their maps to add 15 Republican seats. They are on course to send 11 fewer Republicans than in 2024.

Texas, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Tennessee, Louisiana and Alabama enacted new congressional maps for 2026 that our redistricting tracker records as drawn to gain Republicans 15 seats.

On the old lines in 2024 those states elected 82 Republicans and 35 Democrats; Trump carried 97 of the 117 new districts.

This year Republicans have won 63 of those seats and lead in 8 more, Democrats have won 41 and lead in 3, and Louisiana’s 5th and 6th go to runoffs on December 12.

North Carolina went from 10 Republicans and 4 Democrats to 4 Republicans (3 of them leads) and 10 Democrats (1 a lead).

What the maps were drawn for, and what they got

  • 2024, old lines
  • 2026, won or leading
  • of which leads
  • what the map was drawn to reach

The maps drawn to gain Republican seats

  1. Texas: 25 Republicans and 13 Democrats in 2024 on the old lines; this year 24 Republicans won, 14 Democrats won. The map was drawn to gain 5 Republican seats, a goal of 30 Republicans. On the old lines, an estimate gives 24 Republicans.
  2. Florida: 20 Republicans and 8 Democrats in 2024 on the old lines; this year 16 Republicans won and 4 leading, 7 Democrats won and 1 leading. The map was drawn to gain 4 Republican seats, a goal of 24 Republicans. On the old lines, an estimate gives 17 Republicans.
  3. Ohio: 10 Republicans and 5 Democrats in 2024 on the old lines; this year 7 Republicans won, 8 Democrats won. The map was drawn to gain 2 Republican seats, a goal of 12 Republicans. On the old lines, an estimate gives 9 Republicans.
  4. North Carolina: 10 Republicans and 4 Democrats in 2024 on the old lines; this year 1 Republican won and 3 leading, 9 Democrats won and 1 leading. The map was drawn to gain 1 Republican seat, a goal of 11 Republicans. On the old lines, an estimate gives 8 Republicans.
  5. Tennessee: 8 Republicans and 1 Democrat in 2024 on the old lines; this year 7 Republicans won and 1 leading, 0 Democrats won and 1 leading. The map was drawn to gain 1 Republican seat, a goal of 9 Republicans. On the old lines, an estimate gives 7 Republicans.
  6. Louisiana: 4 Republicans and 2 Democrats in 2024 on the old lines; this year 3 Republicans won, 1 Democrat won, 2 headed to a runoff. The map was drawn to gain 1 Republican seat, a goal of 5 Republicans.
  7. Alabama: 5 Republicans and 2 Democrats in 2024 on the old lines; this year 5 Republicans won, 2 Democrats won. The map was drawn to gain 1 Republican seat, a goal of 6 Republicans. On the old lines, an estimate gives 5 Republicans.

The other redrawn maps

  1. California: 9 Republicans and 43 Democrats in 2024 on the old lines; this year 2 Republicans won and 2 leading, 45 Democrats won and 3 leading. The map was drawn to gain 5 Democratic seats, a goal of 4 Republicans. On the old lines, an estimate gives 5 Republicans.
  2. Utah: 4 Republicans and 0 Democrats in 2024 on the old lines; this year 1 Republican won and 2 leading, 1 Democrat won. The map was drawn to gain 1 Democratic seat, a goal of 3 Republicans. On the old lines, an estimate gives 3 Republicans.

Won: a call, or one candidate on the ballot. Leads: the count’s leader in a seat not yet called. A seat headed to a runoff counts for neither side. The goal is 2024’s Republican seats plus the gain our redistricting tracker records for each map.

One seat went from a Democrat to a Republican

Texas’s 32nd (R+17.7 for president in 2024 on its current lines) is the only House seat in the country Republicans have won where a Democrat held the seat with that number before. They also lead the count in Maine’s 2nd and Tennessee’s 9th.

In the states that redrew, a seat’s holder before is whoever held the district with the same number on the old lines.

The same swing on the old lines, an estimate

Applied to the 2024 districts, each state’s 2026 House swing gives Republicans about 70 seats on the old lines in the six states other than Louisiana, against 68 won or led on the new ones.

By that estimate the new maps cost them about 4 seats in North Carolina and 2 in Ohio and gained them about 3 seats in Florida and 1 in Tennessee; Texas and Alabama come out even.

How it is estimated: each state’s 2026 House vote in the districts with a Democrat and a Republican on the ballot, minus its 2024 House vote the same way, is added to every 2024 district’s margin; a 2024 district without both parties keeps its winner, and Louisiana, whose House races were an all-party primary, is left out. It assumes every district swung alike and ignores incumbency, so it is an estimate, not a count.

Sources: this year’s official counts; 2024’s House results on the old lines from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab; each map’s intended gain from our tracker of the 2025–26 redistricting wave (Wikipedia’s “2025–2026 United States redistricting”, checked against Ballotpedia, NBC News, Voting Rights Lab and NCSL in July and September 2026). Every district on the new maps is drawn on the power page.