2026 results · Iowa

Josh Turek, the Democrat, flips Iowa’s Senate seat

Josh Turek won by 4.1 points, 17.4 points more Democratic than the state voted for president in 2024.

Rob Sand, the Democrat, also took the governorship from the Republicans.

In the House, every one of the four contested seats moved toward Democrats, the median one 13.4 points.

Who won each county, and how far it moved

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Iowa’s four House seats

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Before0–4

20263–1

Solid: won. The tick marks a majority (3 of 4). 3 seats change party: IA-01, IA-03, IA-02.

Republicans lost 3 seats by under 10 points: IA-02 D+4.0, IA-03 D+7.3, IA-01 D+9.2. A majority took 3 of 4; they held 1, and the two closest would have made it.

The seat that decided the majority: IA-03, D+7.3, a district that voted R+4.3 for president in 2024.

Every seat, 2024 to 2026. Open circle: the 2024 presidential margin in the district. Filled: the 2026 House margin. Ordered from the most Democratic result to the most Republican; the rule marks the 3 seats needed for a majority.

← moved toward Democrats, → toward Republicans, in points from the 2024 presidential vote in the district. * still counting: the expected finish.

Close up: the four counties that moved most

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Each county’s move from the 2024 presidential vote in the Senate race; the maps above show the result beside it.

In the Senate race, these moved furthest toward Democrats, among counties with 2,000 or more votes in 2024 and at least half a percent of the state’s.

Wapello County
Moved 25.1 points toward Democrats: R+31.5 for president in 2024; Ashley Hinson, the Republican, carried it at R+6.4.
11,095 votes counted, 14,571 cast in 2024.
Muscatine County
Moved 21.5 points toward Democrats: R+14.9 for president in 2024; Josh Turek, the Democrat, carried it at D+6.5. The county changed sides.
15,882 votes counted, 19,695 cast in 2024.
Lee County
Moved 21.5 points toward Democrats: R+27.8 for president in 2024; Ashley Hinson, the Republican, carried it at R+6.4.
12,011 votes counted, 16,154 cast in 2024.
Webster County
Moved 20.9 points toward Democrats: R+31.2 for president in 2024; Ashley Hinson, the Republican, carried it at R+10.3.
12,671 votes counted, 16,706 cast in 2024.

No county compared moved the other way.

Who lives where it moved

Across counties, ten more points of adults with a degree went with a county about 0.8 points more Republican, on average (r = −0.34, a weak relationship).

By place

Suburban9 counties, 704,548 votes16.0 pts → D

Rural90 counties, 656,291 votes17.1 pts → D

By race and ethnicity

Hispanic residents 30% or more1 county, 4,962 votes26.3 pts → D

White non-Hispanic 85% or more77 counties, 584,268 votes16.5 pts → D

Every other county21 counties, 771,609 votes16.9 pts → D

Each group’s counties added together: its 2026 margin against its 2024 presidential margin. Census Bureau American Community Survey, 2019–2023. Counties, not voters: there are no exit polls here.

Every race in Iowa

Ballot measures

Constitutional Amendment 156.3% yespassing

Margins are the winner’s or leader’s lead in points of all votes cast. * Still counting: where we expect the count to finish. The move is the 2026 margin against the 2024 presidential margin on the same ground, for races between a Democrat and a Republican.

Ticket splitting

Compare

Across the 99 counties, the Senate race went D+4.1 and the governor's race D+11.0: the Senate margin ran 6.9 points more Republican than the governor's. 12 counties were carried by different parties in the two.

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Points of difference between the Senate margin and the governor's in each county.

Each circle is a county, its area the votes cast. Above the line the Senate Democrat did better than the governor Democrat; below it, worse.

19193carried by different parties

Senate: R+2.2Turek against Hinson
Governor: D+2.2Sand against Lahn
Difference: R+4.3Hinson ran ahead
Votes: about 33,685

Most votes firstSen.Gov.Diff.

Margins are the Democrat minus the Republican in points of all votes cast in that race, from the counts the state’s election office has published so far; a county still counting is compared on what it has counted in both. A difference is not a count of split tickets: a voter who skipped one race moves it too.

Iowa’s legislature

Senate25 of 50 seats on the ballotBefore17–321 vacantLeaders18–323 seats are led by another party than held them. Republicans keep control.Every district, mapped →House100 of 100 seats on the ballotBefore33–67Leaders44–5611 seats are led by another party than held them. Republicans keep control.Every district, mapped →

Counts are Iowa’s official state and county counts, published by the Iowa Secretary of State. Where a race is still being counted, its margin is where we expect the count to finish, marked *. A move from 2024 is the 2026 margin against Kamala Harris’s margin over Donald Trump in the same place. A race is won when we call it or the state certifies it.

Who won each county, and how far it moved

Iowa’s four House seats

Close up: the four counties that moved most

Wapello County

Muscatine County

Lee County

Webster County