2026 results · Texas

James Talarico, the Democrat, flips Texas’s Senate seat

James Talarico won by 12.1 points, 25.8 points more Democratic than the state voted for president in 2024.

Gina Hinojosa, the Democrat, also took the governorship from the Republicans.

In the House, every one of the 38 contested seats moved toward Democrats, the median one 17.8 points.

Who won each county, and how far it moved

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Texas’s 38 House seats

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Before13–25

202614–24

Solid: won. The tick marks a majority (20 of 38). 3 seats change party: TX-15, TX-23, TX-32.

Democrats lost 18 seats by under 10 points: TX-02 R+2.0, TX-27 R+2.3, TX-32 R+2.9, TX-05 R+2.9, TX-22 R+3.6, TX-38 R+4.2, TX-06 R+4.3, TX-03 R+5.5 and 10 more. A majority took 20 of 38; they held 14, and the six closest would have made it.

The seat that decided the majority: TX-38, R+4.2, a district that voted R+20.8 for president in 2024.

Every seat, 2024 to 2026. Open circle: the 2024 presidential margin in the district. Filled: the 2026 House margin. Ordered from the most Democratic result to the most Republican; the rule marks the 20 seats needed for a majority.

← moved toward Democrats, → toward Republicans, in points from the 2024 presidential vote in the district. * still counting: the expected finish.

Close up: the four counties that moved most

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Each county’s move from the 2024 presidential vote in the Senate race; the maps above show the result beside it.

In the Senate race, these moved furthest toward Democrats, among counties with 2,000 or more votes in 2024 and at least half a percent of the state’s.

Webb County
Moved 49.5 points toward Democrats: R+2.2 for president in 2024; James Talarico, the Democrat, carried it at D+47.3. The county changed sides.
58,356 votes counted, 65,845 cast in 2024.
Hidalgo County
Moved 49.3 points toward Democrats: R+2.9 for president in 2024; James Talarico, the Democrat, carried it at D+46.5. The county changed sides.
202,572 votes counted, 217,194 cast in 2024.
Cameron County
Moved 44.3 points toward Democrats: R+5.8 for president in 2024; James Talarico, the Democrat, carried it at D+38.5. The county changed sides.
102,032 votes counted, 116,122 cast in 2024.
El Paso County
Moved 32.8 points toward Democrats: D+15.1 for president in 2024; James Talarico, the Democrat, carried it at D+47.9.
218,537 votes counted, 251,371 cast in 2024.

No county compared moved the other way.

Who lives where it moved

Barely related across counties. On average, ten more points of adults with a degree went with a county about 1.2 points more Republican (r = −0.19).

By place

Urban7 counties, 4,956,927 votes24.6 pts → D

Suburban40 counties, 3,517,932 votes26.8 pts → D

Rural207 counties, 1,414,845 votes21.3 pts → D

By race and ethnicity

Black residents 30% or more1 county, 72,801 votes22.1 pts → D

Hispanic residents 30% or more116 counties, 5,148,012 votes28.2 pts → D

White non-Hispanic 85% or more6 counties, 10,635 votes11.0 pts → D

Every other county131 counties, 4,658,256 votes22.7 pts → D

Each group’s counties added together: its 2026 margin against its 2024 presidential margin. Census Bureau American Community Survey, 2019–2023. Counties, not voters: there are no exit polls here.

Every race in Texas

Margins are the winner’s or leader’s lead in points of all votes cast. * Still counting: where we expect the count to finish. The move is the 2026 margin against the 2024 presidential margin on the same ground, for races between a Democrat and a Republican.

Ticket splitting

Compare

Across the 254 counties, the Senate race went D+12.1 and the governor's race D+7.1: the Senate margin ran 5.0 points more Democratic than the governor's. 3 counties were carried by different parties in the two.

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Points of difference between the Senate margin and the governor's in each county.

Each circle is a county, its area the votes cast. Above the line the Senate Democrat did better than the governor Democrat; below it, worse.

48027carried by different parties

Senate: D+5.1Talarico against Paxton
Governor: R+0.6Hinojosa against Abbott
Difference: D+5.7Talarico ran ahead
Votes: about 110,801

Most votes firstSen.Gov.Diff.

Margins are the Democrat minus the Republican in points of all votes cast in that race, from the counts the state’s election office has published so far; a county still counting is compared on what it has counted in both. A difference is not a count of split tickets: a voter who skipped one race moves it too.

Texas’s legislature

Senate16 of 31 seats on the ballotBefore12–181 vacantLeaders12–19Republicans keep control.Every district, mapped →House150 of 150 seats on the ballotBefore62–871 vacantLeaders83–6720 seats are led by another party than held them. Control is not settled.Every district, mapped →

Counts are Texas’s official state and county counts, published by the Texas Secretary of State. Where a race is still being counted, its margin is where we expect the count to finish, marked *. A move from 2024 is the 2026 margin against Kamala Harris’s margin over Donald Trump in the same place. A race is won when we call it or the state certifies it.

Who won each county, and how far it moved

Texas’s 38 House seats

Close up: the four counties that moved most

Webb County

Hidalgo County

Cameron County

El Paso County