2026 results · Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania moved 24 points toward Democrats as Josh Shapiro won the governor's race by 22.1 points

Donald Trump carried Pennsylvania by 1.7 points in 2024.

It is the seventh-largest move among the 66 Senate and governor's races between a Democrat and a Republican.

In the House, every one of the 16 contested seats moved toward Democrats, the median one 15.3 points.

Who won each county, and how far it moved

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Pennsylvania’s 17 House seats

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Before7–10

202611–6

Solid: won. The tick marks a majority (9 of 17). 4 seats change party: PA-07, PA-10, PA-08, PA-01.

Republicans lost 2 seats by under 9 points: PA-01 D+5.5, PA-08 D+8.9.

The seat that decided the majority: PA-10, D+10.1, a district that voted R+5.2 for president in 2024.

Every seat, 2024 to 2026. Open circle: the 2024 presidential margin in the district. Filled: the 2026 House margin. Ordered from the most Democratic result to the most Republican; the rule marks the 9 seats needed for a majority.

One seat had two Democrats on the ballot, so no party margin to plot: PA-03.

← moved toward Democrats, → toward Republicans, in points from the 2024 presidential vote in the district. * still counting: the expected finish.

Close up: the four counties that moved most

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Each county’s move from the 2024 presidential vote in the governor's race; the maps above show the result beside it.

In the governor's race, these moved furthest toward Democrats, among counties with 2,000 or more votes in 2024 and at least half a percent of the state’s.

Lackawanna County
Moved 30.0 points toward Democrats: D+2.8 for president in 2024; Josh Shapiro, the Democrat, carried it at D+32.8.
85,972 votes counted, 116,590 cast in 2024.
Schuylkill County
Moved 28.4 points toward Democrats: R+42.1 for president in 2024; Stacy Garrity, the Republican, carried it at R+13.7.
47,933 votes counted, 73,184 cast in 2024.
Luzerne County
Moved 28.2 points toward Democrats: R+19.2 for president in 2024; Josh Shapiro, the Democrat, carried it at D+9.0. The county changed sides.
111,652 votes counted, 156,150 cast in 2024.
Carbon County
Moved 27.9 points toward Democrats: R+34.8 for president in 2024; Stacy Garrity, the Republican, carried it at R+6.9.
24,461 votes counted, 35,395 cast in 2024.

No county compared moved the other way.

Who lives where it moved

Barely related across counties. On average, ten more points of adults with a degree went with a county about 0.1 points more Republican (r = −0.06).

By place

Urban6 counties, 2,071,523 votes22.3 pts → D

Suburban34 counties, 2,497,894 votes24.8 pts → D

Rural27 counties, 415,957 votes20.7 pts → D

By race and ethnicity

Black residents 30% or more1 county, 490,015 votes20.1 pts → D

White non-Hispanic 85% or more46 counties, 1,290,536 votes23.7 pts → D

Every other county20 counties, 3,204,823 votes23.9 pts → D

Each group’s counties added together: its 2026 margin against its 2024 presidential margin. Census Bureau American Community Survey, 2019–2023. Counties, not voters: there are no exit polls here.

Every race in Pennsylvania

Senate and governor

GovernorJosh Shapiro Dover Stacy Garrity (R)D+22.1R+1.723.9 pts → Dwon

House · Changes first, then the closest

District 1FlipBob Harvie Dover Brian Fitzpatrick (R)D+5.5D+0.35.2 pts → Dwon District 8FlipPaige Cognetti Dover Rob Bresnahan (R)D+8.9R+8.317.3 pts → Dwon District 10FlipJanelle Stelson Dover Scott Perry (R)D+10.1R+5.215.3 pts → Dwon District 7FlipBob Brooks Dover Ryan Mackenzie (R)D+12.2R+3.215.4 pts → Dwon District 16Mike Kelly Rover Justin Wagner (D)R+7.9R+22.414.5 pts → Dwon District 11Lloyd Smucker Rover Nancy Mannion (D)R+11.1R+21.010.0 pts → Dwon

Margins are the winner’s or leader’s lead in points of all votes cast. * Still counting: where we expect the count to finish. The move is the 2026 margin against the 2024 presidential margin on the same ground, for races between a Democrat and a Republican.

Ticket splitting

Across the 33 counties that lie wholly in one district, the governor's race went R+3.8 and the House races R+14.1: the governor's margin ran 10.4 points more Democratic than the House margin. One county was carried by different parties in the two.

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Points of difference between the Governor margin and the House margin in each county.

Each circle is a county, its area the votes cast. Above the line the Governor Democrat did better than the House Democrat; below it, worse.

42093carried by different parties

Governor: D+3.5Shapiro against Garrity
House: R+8.3the district's race
Difference: D+11.7Shapiro ran ahead
Votes: about 6,967

Most votes firstGov.HouseDiff.

Margins are the Democrat minus the Republican in points of all votes cast in that race, from the counts the state’s election office has published so far; a county still counting is compared on what it has counted in both. The House is compared only in counties that lie wholly inside one congressional district, so the county's House margin is one race's margin; a county divided between districts, or in a district without a Democrat against a Republican, is left out. 34 counties are left out. A difference is not a count of split tickets: a voter who skipped one race moves it too.

Pennsylvania’s legislature

Senate25 of 50 seats on the ballotBefore23–27Leaders26–245 seats are led by another party than held them. Control moves to the Democrats.Every district, mapped →House203 of 203 seats on the ballotBefore102–1001 vacantLeaders113–8913 seats are led by another party than held them. Democrats keep control.Every district, mapped →

Counts are Pennsylvania’s official state and county counts. Where a race is still being counted, its margin is where we expect the count to finish, marked *. A move from 2024 is the 2026 margin against Kamala Harris’s margin over Donald Trump in the same place. A race is won when we call it or the state certifies it.