2026 results · Pennsylvania · Pennsylvania 16th District
Mike Kelly, the Republican, wins re-election in Pennsylvania's 16th District
Donald Trump carried the district by 22.4 points in 2024; this year's count is a 14.5-point move toward the Democrats.
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Share of the vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike KellyRepublican, incumbent | 154,144 | 53.9% | |
| Justin WagnerDemocrat | 131,637 | 46.1% |
Called by Call the Map, Nov 4, 10:46 AM EST · 91% counted.
About 91% of the expected vote counted285,781 votesCount last changed Nov 7, 1:09 PM EST · checked Nov 7, 5:10 PM ESTSource: the official state and county counts, gathered by civicAPI
The map
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About the seat
Pennsylvania's 16th District takes in all or part of 6 counties. The Republicans held it before this election. Its voters went R+22.4 for president in 2024. Its move from that vote, 14.5 points toward the Democrats, ranks 10 of 16 among the state's districts, counting from the largest move toward the Democrats.
- 2024 president
- R+22.4
- 2024 House race, same lines
- R+27.3
- Move from 2024, rank in state
- 10 of 16
- Erie County33%
- Butler County30%
- Mercer County14%
- Lawrence County11%
- Crawford County10%
- Venango County2%
Shares are of the votes counted this year. The 2024 House figure is the same district, on the same lines.
What the count shows
Added together, the 6 counties compared moved 14.5 points toward the Democrats from the 2024 presidential vote.
The counties compared cast 68% as many votes as in 2024, from 71% in Butler County to 63% in Venango County.
Mercer County moved most: R+29.6 for president in 2024, R+14.1 this year
The 6 counties with the largest moves from the 2024 presidential vote, among those with 2,000 or more votes for president in 2024 and a quarter of that counted. Each line runs from the 2024 margin to this year’s.
2024 president 2026
Butler County added 23,516 net votes for Wagner against the 2024 margin, 33% of the district's change
Across the 6 counties compared, the margin moved by 72,030 votes toward Wagner: this year’s lead in votes against the 2024 presidential lead in votes, county by county. The figure counts voters who changed sides and differences in who turned out alike; the count cannot tell them apart.
- Butler County+23,516 Wagner
- Erie County+14,790 Wagner
- Mercer County+12,201 Wagner
- Lawrence County+10,327 Wagner
- Crawford County+8,552 Wagner
- Venango County+2,644 Wagner
1 county Donald Trump carried in 2024 is led by Wagner this year
Striped on the map above. Largest first.
- Erie CountyR+1.0D+14.2
Pennsylvania’s ballot
The seats that changed party
Statewide
U.S. HouseBefore the election R 10–7, now D 11–6
won leads, still counting changed party. Margins are the leader’s share minus the runner-up’s, in points.
Every count on this page is the official count, from the state and its counties. Counts are unofficial until the state certifies them. The 2024 comparison is the presidential vote, Kamala Harris against Donald Trump, on the same ground. Margins are the Democrat minus the Republican, in points of all votes.