2026 results · Tennessee

Tennessee moved 27 points toward Democrats, and Marsha Blackburn held the governorship by 2.5

Donald Trump carried Tennessee by 29.7 points in 2024.

It is the third-largest move among the 66 Senate and governor's races between a Democrat and a Republican.

In the House, every one of the nine contested seats moved toward Democrats, the median one 19.8 points (the fourth-largest median move of the 44 states with two or more).

Who won each county, and how far it moved

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Tennessee’s nine House seats

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Before1–8

20261–8

Solid: won; paler: leading, still counting. The tick marks a majority (5 of 9).

Democrats lost or trail in 5 seats by under 6 points: TN-09 R+1.1*, TN-07 R+2.2, TN-06 R+3.3, TN-05 R+4.9, TN-08 R+5.3. A majority took 5 of 9; they held 1, and the four closest would have made it.

The seat that decided the majority: TN-05, R+4.9, a district that voted R+22.8 for president in 2024.

Every seat, 2024 to 2026. Open circle: the 2024 presidential margin in the district. Filled: the 2026 House margin (the expected finish where still counting, marked *). Ordered from the most Democratic result to the most Republican; the rule marks the 5 seats needed for a majority.

← moved toward Democrats, → toward Republicans, in points from the 2024 presidential vote in the district. * still counting: the expected finish.

Close up: the four counties that moved most

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Each county’s move from the 2024 presidential vote in the governor's race; the maps above show the result beside it.

In the governor's race, these moved furthest toward Democrats, among counties with 2,000 or more votes in 2024 and at least half a percent of the state’s.

Warren County
Moved 37.4 points toward Democrats: R+56.1 for president in 2024; Marsha Blackburn, the Republican, carried it at R+18.7.
10,403 votes counted, 17,015 cast in 2024.
Carter County
Moved 36.0 points toward Democrats: R+63.2 for president in 2024; Marsha Blackburn, the Republican, carried it at R+27.2.
15,807 votes counted, 24,852 cast in 2024.
Hamblen County
Moved 35.7 points toward Democrats: R+58.9 for president in 2024; Marsha Blackburn, the Republican, carried it at R+23.2.
15,212 votes counted, 25,501 cast in 2024.
Bedford County
Moved 33.5 points toward Democrats: R+58.0 for president in 2024; Marsha Blackburn, the Republican, carried it at R+24.5.
13,198 votes counted, 20,090 cast in 2024.

No county compared moved the other way.

Who lives where it moved

Across counties, ten more points of adults with a degree went with a county about 2.1 points more Republican, on average (r = −0.44, a moderate relationship).

By place

Urban2 counties, 478,496 votes17.6 pts → D

Suburban32 counties, 1,217,416 votes27.3 pts → D

Rural61 counties, 405,351 votes27.4 pts → D

By race and ethnicity

Black residents 30% or more5 counties, 298,687 votes15.3 pts → D

White non-Hispanic 85% or more64 counties, 678,601 votes28.2 pts → D

Every other county26 counties, 1,123,975 votes26.8 pts → D

Each group’s counties added together: its 2026 margin against its 2024 presidential margin. Census Bureau American Community Survey, 2019–2023. Counties, not voters: there are no exit polls here.

Every race in Tennessee

Senate and governor

SenateBill Hagerty Rover Marquita Bradshaw (D)R+12.2R+29.717.6 pts → Dwon GovernorMarsha Blackburn Rover Jerri Green (D)R+2.5R+29.727.2 pts → Dwon

House · Changes first, then the closest

District 4Victoria Broderick Dover Scott DesJarlais (R)D+0.1*R+23.723.8 pts → Dcounting District 9Brent Taylor Rover Justin Pearson (D)R+1.1*R+20.919.8 pts → Dcounting District 7Matt Van Epps Rover Darden Copeland (D)R+2.2R+22.220.0 pts → Dwon District 6Johnny Garrett Rover Mike Croley (D)R+3.3R+26.222.9 pts → Dwon District 5Charlie Hatcher Rover Chaz Molder (D)R+4.9R+22.817.9 pts → Dwon

Margins are the winner’s or leader’s lead in points of all votes cast. * Still counting: where we expect the count to finish. The move is the 2026 margin against the 2024 presidential margin on the same ground, for races between a Democrat and a Republican.

Ticket splitting

Compare

Across the 95 counties, the Senate race went R+12.2 and the governor's race R+2.5: the Senate margin ran 9.7 points more Republican than the governor's. 2 counties were carried by different parties in the two.

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Points of difference between the Senate margin and the governor's in each county.

Each circle is a county, its area the votes cast. Above the line the Senate Democrat did better than the governor Democrat; below it, worse.

47093carried by different parties

Senate: R+1.9Bradshaw against Hagerty
Governor: D+6.1Green against Blackburn
Difference: R+7.9Hagerty ran ahead
Votes: about 156,639

Most votes firstSen.Gov.Diff.

Margins are the Democrat minus the Republican in points of all votes cast in that race, from the counts the state’s election office has published so far; a county still counting is compared on what it has counted in both. A difference is not a count of split tickets: a voter who skipped one race moves it too.

Tennessee’s legislature

Senate17 of 33 seats on the ballotBefore6–27Leaders6–27Republicans keep control.Every district, mapped →House99 of 99 seats on the ballotBefore24–75Leaders28–683 seats have no votes counted yet (gray). 6 seats are led by another party than held them. Republicans keep control.Every district, mapped →

Counts are Tennessee’s official state and county counts. Where a race is still being counted, its margin is where we expect the count to finish, marked *. A move from 2024 is the 2026 margin against Kamala Harris’s margin over Donald Trump in the same place. A race is won when we call it or the state certifies it.