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2026 midtermsResults

2026 results · Arkansas

Tom Cotton, the Republican, wins Arkansas’s Senate race by 11.8 points

Donald Trump carried Arkansas by 30.6 points in 2024; the Senate race moved 18.8 points toward Democrats.

In the House, every one of the four contested seats moved toward Democrats, the median one 11.0 points.

Who won each county, and how far it moved

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Arkansas’s four House seats

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Before0–4
20260–4

Solid: won. The tick marks a majority (3 of 4).

Democrats lost 1 seat by under 2 points: AR-02 R+1.7.

The seat that decided the majority: AR-04, R+31.0, a district that voted R+39.6 for president in 2024.

Every seat, 2024 to 2026. Open circle: the 2024 presidential margin in the district. Filled: the 2026 House margin. Ordered from the most Democratic result to the most Republican; the rule marks the 3 seats needed for a majority.
  1. AR-02French HillR+1.7← 13.8
  2. AR-03Steve WomackR+13.4← 11.5
  3. AR-04Bruce WestermanR+31.0← 8.7
  4. AR-01Rick CrawfordR+34.5← 10.5

← moved toward Democrats, → toward Republicans, in points from the 2024 presidential vote in the district. * still counting: the expected finish.

Close up: the four counties that moved most

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Each county’s move from the 2024 presidential vote in the Senate race; the maps above show the result beside it.

In the Senate race, these moved furthest toward Democrats, among counties with 2,000 or more votes in 2024 and at least half a percent of the state’s.

  1. Mississippi County

    Moved 24.7 points toward Democrats: R+31.6 for president in 2024; Tom Cotton, the Republican, carried it at R+6.9.

    7,681 votes counted, 10,717 cast in 2024.

  2. Washington County

    Moved 24.2 points toward Democrats: R+6.7 for president in 2024; Hallie Shoffner, the Democrat, carried it at D+17.5. The county changed sides.

    76,041 votes counted, 97,158 cast in 2024.

  3. Craighead County

    Moved 23.9 points toward Democrats: R+37.4 for president in 2024; Tom Cotton, the Republican, carried it at R+13.6.

    26,180 votes counted, 37,242 cast in 2024.

  4. Franklin County

    Moved 23.3 points toward Democrats: R+62.4 for president in 2024; Tom Cotton, the Republican, carried it at R+39.1.

    5,165 votes counted, 6,971 cast in 2024.

No county compared moved the other way.

Who lives where it moved

Across counties, ten more points of adults with a degree went with a county about 1.2 points more Democratic, on average (r = 0.26, a weak relationship).

0D+5D+10D+15D+20D+25D+30D+350%10%20%30%40%% with a bachelor's degree →↑ moved toward Democrats from 2024

By place

Suburban9 counties, 496,232 votes19.7 pts → D
Rural66 counties, 389,879 votes16.4 pts → D

By race and ethnicity

Black residents 30% or more16 counties, 214,262 votes14.4 pts → D
Hispanic residents 30% or more1 county, 3,098 votes31.3 pts → D
White non-Hispanic 85% or more22 counties, 141,253 votes14.7 pts → D
Every other county36 counties, 527,498 votes19.6 pts → D

Each group’s counties added together: its 2026 margin against its 2024 presidential margin. Census Bureau American Community Survey, 2019–2023. Counties, not voters: there are no exit polls here.

Every race in Arkansas

Senate and governor

SenateTom Cotton Rover Hallie Shoffner (D)R+11.8R+30.618.8 pts → DwonGovernorSarah Huckabee Sanders Rover Fredrick Love (D)R+15.3R+30.615.4 pts → Dwon

House

District 2French Hill Rover Chris Jones (D)R+1.7R+15.513.8 pts → DwonDistrict 3Steve Womack Rover Robb Ryerse (D)R+13.4R+24.911.5 pts → DwonDistrict 4Bruce Westerman Rover James Russell (D)R+31.0R+39.68.7 pts → DwonDistrict 1Rick Crawford Rover Terri Yarbrough Green (D)R+34.5R+45.010.5 pts → Dwon

Other statewide offices

Secretary of StateKim Hammer Rover Kelly Grappe (D)R+16.3R+30.614.4 pts → DwonLieutenant GovernorLeslie Rutledge Rover Michael Kalagias (L)+27.8——wonCommissioner of State LandsCole Jester Rover Chris Olson (L)+28.2*——99% counted

Ballot measures

Citizenship Requirement for Voting Amendment69.1% yespassing
Creation of Economic Development Districts Amendment49.3% yesfailing
Right to Keep and Bear Arms Amendment70.8% yespassing

Margins are the winner’s or leader’s lead in points of all votes cast. * Still counting: where we expect the count to finish. The move is the 2026 margin against the 2024 presidential margin on the same ground, for races between a Democrat and a Republican.

Ticket splitting

Compare

Across the 75 counties, the Senate race went R+11.8 and the governor's race R+15.3: the Senate margin ran 3.4 points more Democratic than the governor's. Every county was carried by the same party in both.

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Points of difference between the Senate margin and the governor's in each county.

Sen. D, Gov. RSen. R, Gov. DR+70R+35R+3500D+35D+35D+70D+70same margin in both ↗Governor marginSenate margin
Each circle is a county, its area the votes cast. Above the line the Senate Democrat did better than the governor Democrat; below it, worse.

05119Democratic in both

Senate
D+35.2Shoffner against Cotton
Governor
D+28.7Love against Sanders
Difference
D+6.5Shoffner ran ahead
Votes
about 130,184
Most votes firstSen.Gov.Diff.
  • 05119D+35.2D+28.7D+6.5
  • 05007R+6.1R+12.0D+5.9
  • 05143D+17.5D+11.7D+5.8
  • 05125R+23.2R+27.5D+4.2
  • 05045R+12.4R+16.6D+4.2
  • 05131R+19.3R+21.5D+2.2
  • 05051R+23.0R+27.5D+4.5
  • 05031R+13.6R+18.4D+4.9
  • 05085R+36.6R+40.3D+3.6
  • 05145R+45.9R+48.7D+2.7
  • 05069D+29.0D+27.9D+1.1
  • 05115R+34.4R+36.2D+1.8
  • 05033R+42.0R+43.7D+1.7
  • 05005R+46.6R+49.6D+3.0
  • 05139R+19.5R+21.0D+1.4
  • 05009R+49.4R+46.8R+2.6
  • 05035D+18.7D+15.6D+3.1
  • 05091R+38.7R+38.9D+0.2
  • 05055R+41.4R+45.0D+3.6
  • 05023R+58.0R+60.7D+2.7
  • 05063R+43.2R+46.3D+3.1
  • 05015R+12.9R+14.2D+1.3
  • 05059R+36.0R+36.7D+0.6
  • 05093R+6.9R+10.2D+3.3
  • 05071R+30.3R+31.6D+1.3
  • 05029R+26.2R+26.30
  • 05103R+8.4R+9.1D+0.7
  • 05019R+5.7R+5.0R+0.7
  • 05027R+22.2R+22.20
  • 05083R+44.2R+41.3R+2.9
  • 05089R+49.4R+51.6D+2.3
  • 05141R+48.1R+51.0D+2.9
  • 05135R+50.7R+55.7D+4.9
  • 05113R+57.6R+57.5R+0.1
  • 05053R+51.3R+53.4D+2.2
  • 05111R+43.4R+45.7D+2.3
  • 05003R+34.7R+36.4D+1.7
  • 05047R+39.1R+28.5R+10.6
  • 05087R+38.0R+41.2D+3.2
  • 05043R+18.7R+18.9D+0.2
  • 05123D+12.6D+14.5R+1.9
  • 05149R+39.9R+41.0D+1.1
  • 05065R+53.1R+56.8D+3.7
  • 05121R+45.7R+50.3D+4.6
  • 05137R+48.9R+52.4D+3.5
  • 05037R+26.6R+25.4R+1.2
  • 05107D+23.5D+22.8D+0.7
  • 05057R+22.7R+21.5R+1.2
  • 05001R+27.4R+28.8D+1.4
  • 05075R+47.7R+51.4D+3.7
  • 05081R+42.6R+38.4R+4.1
  • 05049R+46.4R+51.4D+5.0
  • 05021R+46.7R+51.0D+4.2
  • 05067R+29.9R+35.2D+5.3
  • 05105R+42.1R+45.7D+3.6
  • 05061R+30.2R+26.5R+3.7
  • 05133R+30.4R+25.8R+4.6
  • 05017D+19.1D+17.8D+1.4
  • 05109R+56.7R+54.6R+2.1
  • 05101R+48.4R+39.8R+8.6
  • 05041D+12.3D+12.8R+0.5
  • 05097R+52.5R+54.4D+1.9
  • 05129R+52.8R+48.1R+4.8
  • 05127R+63.1R+59.0R+4.1
  • 05079R+34.6R+31.1R+3.5
  • 05025R+56.7R+53.5R+3.2
  • 05117R+52.6R+53.1D+0.4
  • 05011R+23.2R+23.0R+0.1
  • 05099R+28.4R+25.6R+2.8
  • 05095R+2.0R+4.0D+2.0
  • 05077D+18.7D+17.3D+1.3
  • 05073R+24.3R+22.9R+1.4
  • 05147R+18.9R+25.6D+6.7
  • 05039R+18.8R+15.7R+3.1
  • 05013R+45.9R+47.1D+1.2

Margins are the Democrat minus the Republican in points of all votes cast in that race, from the counts the state’s election office has published so far; a county still counting is compared on what it has counted in both. A difference is not a count of split tickets: a voter who skipped one race moves it too.

Arkansas’s legislature

Senate18 of 35 seats on the ballotBefore6–281 vacantLeaders5–255 seats have no votes counted yet (gray). 1 seat is led by another party than held it. Republicans keep control.Every district, mapped →House100 of 100 seats on the ballotBefore20–791 vacantLeaders21–5821 seats have no votes counted yet (gray). 8 seats are led by another party than held them. Republicans keep control.Every district, mapped →

Counts are Arkansas’s official state and county counts. Where a race is still being counted, its margin is where we expect the count to finish, marked *. A move from 2024 is the 2026 margin against Kamala Harris’s margin over Donald Trump in the same place. A race is won when we call it or the state certifies it.