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2026 midtermsResults

2026 results · Oregon

Jeff Merkley, the Democrat, wins Oregon’s Senate race by 19.4 points

Kamala Harris carried Oregon by 14.4 points in 2024; the Senate race moved 5.0 points toward Democrats.

In the House, the median contested seat moved 4.0 points toward Democrats.

Who won each county, and how far it moved

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Oregon’s six House seats

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Before5–1
20265–1

Solid: won. The tick marks a majority (4 of 6).

The seat that decided the majority: OR-06, D+16.6, a district that voted D+11.4 for president in 2024.

Every seat, 2024 to 2026. Open circle: the 2024 presidential margin in the district. Filled: the 2026 House margin. Ordered from the most Democratic result to the most Republican; the rule marks the 4 seats needed for a majority.
  1. OR-03Maxine E DexterD+54.8← 8.4
  2. OR-01Suzanne BonamiciD+42.2← 4.1
  3. OR-06Andrea SalinasD+16.6← 5.2
  4. OR-04Val HoyleD+10.9→ 1.3
  5. OR-05Janelle S BynumD+10.6← 2.0
  6. OR-02Cliff BentzR+23.3← 3.9

← moved toward Democrats, → toward Republicans, in points from the 2024 presidential vote in the district. * still counting: the expected finish.

Close up: the four counties that moved most

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Each county’s move from the 2024 presidential vote in the Senate race; the maps above show the result beside it.

In the Senate race, these moved furthest toward Democrats, among counties with 2,000 or more votes in 2024 and at least half a percent of the state’s.

  1. Marion County

    Moved 7.4 points toward Democrats: R+2.0 for president in 2024; Jeff Merkley, the Democrat, carried it at D+5.4. The county changed sides.

    95,126 votes counted, 155,732 cast in 2024.

  2. Jefferson County

    Moved 6.6 points toward Democrats: R+30.2 for president in 2024; David Brock Smith, the Republican, carried it at R+23.6.

    10,119 votes counted, 11,653 cast in 2024.

  3. Wasco County

    Moved 6.4 points toward Democrats: R+5.7 for president in 2024; Jeff Merkley, the Democrat, carried it at D+0.7. The county changed sides.

    10,645 votes counted, 13,185 cast in 2024.

  4. Jackson County

    Moved 6.2 points toward Democrats: R+6.4 for president in 2024; David Brock Smith, the Republican, carried it at R+0.2.

    101,226 votes counted, 118,577 cast in 2024.

No county compared moved the other way.

Who lives where it moved

Across counties, ten more points of adults with a degree went with a county about 0.4 points more Republican, on average (r = −0.31, a weak relationship).

0D+5D+10D+150%20%40%60%% with a bachelor's degree →↑ moved toward Democrats from 2024

By place

Urban1 county, 362,595 votes4.6 pts → D
Suburban6 counties, 676,547 votes4.5 pts → D
Rural29 counties, 823,142 votes5.1 pts → D

By race and ethnicity

Hispanic residents 30% or more3 counties, 24,220 votes7.8 pts → D
White non-Hispanic 85% or more8 counties, 98,427 votes3.0 pts → D
Every other county25 counties, 1,739,637 votes5.2 pts → D

Each group’s counties added together: its 2026 margin against its 2024 presidential margin. Census Bureau American Community Survey, 2019–2023. Counties, not voters: there are no exit polls here.

Every race in Oregon

Senate and governor

SenateJeff Merkley Dover David Brock Smith (R)D+19.4D+14.45.0 pts → DwonGovernorTina Kotek Dover Christine Drazan (R)D+9.6D+14.44.8 pts → Rwon

House

District 5Janelle S Bynum Dover Patti Adair (R)D+10.6D+8.62.0 pts → DwonDistrict 4Val Hoyle Dover Monique DeSpain (R)D+10.9D+12.11.3 pts → RwonDistrict 6Andrea Salinas Dover David Russ (R)D+16.6D+11.45.2 pts → DwonDistrict 2Cliff Bentz Rover Chris Beck (D)R+23.3R+27.23.9 pts → DwonDistrict 1Suzanne Bonamici Dover Barbara J Kahl (R)D+42.2D+38.14.1 pts → DwonDistrict 3Maxine E Dexter Dover Loran Ayles (R)D+54.8D+46.48.4 pts → Dwon

Margins are the winner’s or leader’s lead in points of all votes cast. * Still counting: where we expect the count to finish. The move is the 2026 margin against the 2024 presidential margin on the same ground, for races between a Democrat and a Republican.

Ticket splitting

Compare

Across the 36 counties, the Senate race went D+19.4 and the governor's race D+9.6: the Senate margin ran 9.8 points more Democratic than the governor's. 3 counties were carried by different parties in the two.

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Points of difference between the Senate margin and the governor's in each county.

Sen. D, Gov. RSen. R, Gov. DR+80R+40R+4000D+40D+40D+80D+80same margin in both ↗Governor marginSenate margin
Each circle is a county, its area the votes cast. Above the line the Senate Democrat did better than the governor Democrat; below it, worse.

41047carried by different parties

Senate
D+5.4Merkley against Smith
Governor
R+3.6Kotek against Drazan
Difference
D+9.0Merkley ran ahead
Votes
about 96,100
Most votes firstSen.Gov.Diff.
  • 41051D+66.7D+58.9D+7.8
  • 41067D+37.4D+26.6D+10.7
  • 41005D+12.8D+0.5D+12.3
  • 41039D+26.5D+17.2D+9.3
  • 41017D+15.5D+4.9D+10.6
  • 41029R+0.2R+8.6D+8.4
  • 41047D+5.4R+3.6D+9.0
  • 41043R+20.3R+30.1D+9.8
  • 41019R+35.1R+44.5D+9.4
  • 41071R+1.2R+11.9D+10.7
  • 41003D+40.7D+31.1D+9.5
  • 41033R+23.7R+32.8D+9.1
  • 41053R+1.3R+11.5D+10.2
  • 41011R+16.7R+25.0D+8.2
  • 41035R+37.4R+47.6D+10.2
  • 41009R+8.0R+20.0D+12.0
  • 41059R+31.7R+41.7D+10.0
  • 41041D+24.2D+14.7D+9.5
  • 41007D+16.3D+4.6D+11.6
  • 41057D+2.4R+7.2D+9.6
  • 41013R+48.0R+57.0D+9.1
  • 41061R+38.1R+47.2D+9.1
  • 41015R+12.3R+18.8D+6.5
  • 41027D+41.5D+29.4D+12.1
  • 41065D+0.7R+10.7D+11.4
  • 41031R+23.6R+34.2D+10.6
  • 41045R+38.1R+45.7D+7.6
  • 41001R+43.4R+54.9D+11.4
  • 41063R+34.2R+43.0D+8.8
  • 41049R+39.4R+50.2D+10.8
  • 41023R+54.7R+66.3D+11.7
  • 41025R+53.2R+65.1D+11.8
  • 41037R+62.1R+70.1D+8.0
  • 41055R+52.9R+63.3D+10.4
  • 41021R+35.3R+49.5D+14.3
  • 41069R+44.0R+56.1D+12.1

Margins are the Democrat minus the Republican in points of all votes cast in that race, from the counts the state’s election office has published so far; a county still counting is compared on what it has counted in both. A difference is not a count of split tickets: a voter who skipped one race moves it too.

Counts are Oregon’s official state and county counts, published by the Oregon Secretary of State. Where a race is still being counted, its margin is where we expect the count to finish, marked *. A move from 2024 is the 2026 margin against Kamala Harris’s margin over Donald Trump in the same place. A race is won when we call it or the state certifies it.