13 elections
Who carried each state, 1976–2024, and by how much. Blue: the Democrat. Red: the Republican. The bar under each map counts the states carried by fewer than 5 points.
The Drift: Fifty years of presidential elections, state by state and county by county
How every state and county voted in the thirteen presidential elections from 1976 to 2024, how far each sat from the country as a whole, and what that means for this November. Every chart shows the actual result first; one switch shows each place against the nation instead. Read it in order, or open your own state from any chart.
The point
Fifty years ago America's states and counties voted much like one another. Now they have pulled apart.
22→8
From 22 in 1976 to 8 in 2024: of the 50 states and D.C. voted within 5 points of the nation, 1976 → 2024
7→16
From 7 in 1976 to 16 in 2024: points from the nation for the state in the middle: half sat nearer, half further, 1976 → 2024
D+4→R+58
From D+4 in 1976 to R+58 in 2024: rural counties against the big metros, their combined votes compared, 1976 → 2024
Every map and chart below can show either measure
Actual result, shown first, is a place’s own margin between the two parties’ nominees: who carried it, and by how much. Compared with the nation takes the country’s margin away, to show where a place sat against the country whoever won.
Where do you live?
Choose a county or a state, and every map and chart that follows will mark it. Or skip this and read on.
The middle emptied out
In 1976, 22 of the 50 states and D.C. voted within 5 points of the nation. In 2024, eight did.
In 1976, 20 of the 50 states and D.C. were carried by fewer than 5 points. In 2024, eight were.
In 1976, Jimmy Carter beat Gerald R. Ford by 2.1 points, counting only the votes for the two of them. His two best states were Georgia and Arkansas, 32 and 28 points more Democratic than the country. West Virginia was 14 points more Democratic than the country. California voted 4 points more Republican than the country, Vermont 15.
In 2024, Donald Trump won the national vote by 1.5 points. West Virginia voted 41 points more Republican than the country, and Arkansas 30. Vermont was 34 points more Democratic than the country, California 22. Georgia, 1976's best state for the Democrat, ended within a point of the nation, on the Republican side.
1976
Jimmy Carter won the national vote by 2.1 points and the electoral vote, 297 to 240. Of the 50 states and D.C., 22 voted within 5 points of the nation, among them Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Texas and New York.
Jimmy Carter won the national vote by 2.1 points and the electoral vote, 297 to 240. Of the 50 states and D.C., 20 were carried by fewer than 5 points, among them Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Texas and New York.
1980
Ronald Reagan won the national vote by 10.6 points and the electoral vote, 489 to 49. Compared with the nation, 25 of the 50 states and D.C. moved toward Republicans and 26 toward Democrats. The biggest moves: North Dakota, 23 points toward Republicans, and Vermont, 18 toward Democrats. About 8 percent of the votes that year went to other candidates; this measure counts only the two parties' nominees, so it leaves them out.
Ronald Reagan won the national vote by 10.6 points and the electoral vote, 489 to 49. Against 1976, 48 of the 50 states and D.C. swung toward the Republican and 3 toward the Democrat. The biggest swings: North Dakota, 36 points toward the Republican, and Vermont, 5 toward the Democrat. 17 states changed party.
1984
Ronald Reagan won the national vote by 18.3 points and the electoral vote, 525 to 13. Compared with the nation, 23 of the 50 states and D.C. moved toward Republicans and 28 toward Democrats. The biggest moves: Georgia, 28 points toward Republicans, and North Dakota, 18 toward Democrats.
Ronald Reagan won the national vote by 18.3 points and the electoral vote, 525 to 13. Against 1980, 39 of the 50 states and D.C. swung toward the Republican and 12 toward the Democrat. The biggest swings: Georgia, 36 points toward the Republican, and North Dakota, 10 toward the Democrat. Five changed party: Georgia, Hawaii, Maryland, Rhode Island and West Virginia.
1988
George Bush won the national vote by 7.8 points and the electoral vote, 426 to 111. Compared with the nation, 18 of the 50 states and D.C. moved toward Republicans and 33 toward Democrats. The biggest moves: District of Columbia, 12 points toward Republicans, and Oklahoma, 11 toward Democrats.
George Bush won the national vote by 7.8 points and the electoral vote, 426 to 111. Against 1984, 3 of the 50 states and D.C. swung toward the Republican and 48 toward the Democrat. The biggest swings: District of Columbia, 2 points toward the Republican, and Oklahoma, 21 toward the Democrat. 9 states changed party.
1992
Bill Clinton won the national vote by 6.9 points and the electoral vote, 370 to 168. Compared with the nation, 26 of the 50 states and D.C. moved toward Republicans and 25 toward Democrats. The biggest moves: Iowa, 18 points toward Republicans, and Arkansas, 20 toward Democrats. About 20 percent of the votes that year went to other candidates; this measure counts only the two parties' nominees, so it leaves them out.
Bill Clinton won the national vote by 6.9 points and the electoral vote, 370 to 168. Against 1988, 3 of the 50 states and D.C. swung toward the Republican and 48 toward the Democrat. The biggest swings: Iowa, 3 points toward the Republican, and Arkansas, 34 toward the Democrat. 22 states changed party.
1996
Bill Clinton won the national vote by 9.5 points and the electoral vote, 379 to 159. Compared with the nation, 28 of the 50 states and D.C. moved toward Republicans and 23 toward Democrats. The biggest moves: Kansas, 16 points toward Republicans, and New Jersey, 15 toward Democrats. About 10 percent of the votes that year went to other candidates; this measure counts only the two parties' nominees, so it leaves them out.
Bill Clinton won the national vote by 9.5 points and the electoral vote, 379 to 159. Against 1992, 20 of the 50 states and D.C. swung toward the Republican and 31 toward the Democrat. The biggest swings: Kansas, 13 points toward the Republican, and New Jersey, 17 toward the Democrat. Five changed party: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia and Montana.
2000
Al Gore, Jr. won the national vote by 0.5 points; George W. Bush won the electoral vote, 271 to 266. Compared with the nation, 28 of the 50 states and D.C. moved toward Republicans and 23 toward Democrats. The biggest moves: Wyoming, 18 points toward Republicans, and District of Columbia, 10 toward Democrats.
Al Gore, Jr. won the national vote by 0.5 points; George W. Bush won the electoral vote, 271 to 266. Against 1996, 50 of the 50 states and D.C. swung toward the Republican and 1 toward the Democrat. The biggest swings: Wyoming, 27 points toward the Republican, and District of Columbia, 1 toward the Democrat. 11 states changed party.
2004
George W. Bush won the national vote by 2.5 points and the electoral vote, 286 to 251. Compared with the nation, 23 of the 50 states and D.C. moved toward Republicans and 28 toward Democrats. The biggest moves: Hawaii, 8 points toward Republicans, and Vermont, 13 toward Democrats.
George W. Bush won the national vote by 2.5 points and the electoral vote, 286 to 251. Against 2000, 32 of the 50 states and D.C. swung toward the Republican and 19 toward the Democrat. The biggest swings: Hawaii, 11 points toward the Republican, and Vermont, 10 toward the Democrat. Three changed party: Iowa, New Hampshire and New Mexico.
2008
Barack Obama won the national vote by 7.4 points and the electoral vote, 365 to 173. Compared with the nation, 24 of the 50 states and D.C. moved toward Republicans and 27 toward Democrats. The biggest moves: Arkansas, 20 points toward Republicans, and Hawaii, 27 toward Democrats.
Barack Obama won the national vote by 7.4 points and the electoral vote, 365 to 173. Against 2004, 5 of the 50 states and D.C. swung toward the Republican and 46 toward the Democrat. The biggest swings: Arkansas, 10 points toward the Republican, and Hawaii, 37 toward the Democrat. 9 states changed party.
2012
Barack Obama won the national vote by 3.9 points and the electoral vote, 332 to 206. Compared with the nation, 27 of the 50 states and D.C. moved toward Republicans and 24 toward Democrats. The biggest moves: Utah, 17 points toward Republicans, and Alaska, 11 toward Democrats.
Barack Obama won the national vote by 3.9 points and the electoral vote, 332 to 206. Against 2008, 45 of the 50 states and D.C. swung toward the Republican and 6 toward the Democrat. The biggest swings: Utah, 20 points toward the Republican, and Alaska, 7 toward the Democrat. Two changed party: Indiana and North Carolina.
2016
Hillary Clinton won the national vote by 2.2 points; Donald Trump won the electoral vote, 304 to 227. Compared with the nation, 36 of the 50 states and D.C. moved toward Republicans and 15 toward Democrats. The biggest moves: North Dakota, 18 points toward Republicans, and Utah, 26 toward Democrats. (In Utah an independent, Evan McMullin, won about a fifth of the vote; his votes are left out the same way.)
Hillary Clinton won the national vote by 2.2 points; Donald Trump won the electoral vote, 304 to 227. Against 2012, 39 of the 50 states and D.C. swung toward the Republican and 12 toward the Democrat. The biggest swings: North Dakota, 19 points toward the Republican, and Utah, 24 toward the Democrat. Six changed party: Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
2020
Joe Biden won the national vote by 4.5 points and the electoral vote, 306 to 232. Compared with the nation, 17 of the 50 states and D.C. moved toward Republicans and 34 toward Democrats. The biggest moves: Hawaii, 7 points toward Republicans, and Colorado, 6 toward Democrats.
Joe Biden won the national vote by 4.5 points and the electoral vote, 306 to 232. Against 2016, 7 of the 50 states and D.C. swung toward the Republican and 44 toward the Democrat. The biggest swings: Hawaii, 5 points toward the Republican, and Colorado, 9 toward the Democrat. Five changed party: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
2024
Donald Trump won the national vote by 1.5 points and the electoral vote, 312 to 226. Compared with the nation, 12 of the 50 states and D.C. moved toward Republicans and 39 toward Democrats. The biggest moves: New York, 5 points toward Republicans, and Utah, 5 toward Democrats.
Donald Trump won the national vote by 1.5 points and the electoral vote, 312 to 226. Against 2020, every one of the 50 states and D.C. swung toward the Republican. The biggest swing: New York, 11 points; the smallest, Utah, 1. Six changed party: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
1976 to 2024
Of the 50 states and D.C., 27 ended on the other side of the nation from where they were in 1976: thirteen toward Republicans, 14 toward Democrats. The map is 2024 again, with those 27 outlined. Half the states now sit at least 16 points from the nation; in 1976, half sat within 8.
Of the 50 states and D.C., 28 are carried by a different party than in 1976: 16 now Republican, twelve now Democratic. The map is 2024 again, with those 28 outlined. Half the states were carried by at least 16 points in 2024; in 1976, half by fewer than 7.
The numbers: every state’s lean, 1976–2024
| State | 1976 | 1980 | 1984 | 1988 | 1992 | 1996 | 2000 | 2004 | 2008 | 2012 | 2016 | 2020 | 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | R+25.9 | R+24.0 | R+19.8 | R+16.5 | R+20.1 | R+30.3 | R+36.4 | R+24.0 | R+29.5 | R+18.6 | R+19.0 | R+15.1 | R+12.2 | D+13.7 |
| Alabama | D+11.2 | D+9.3 | R+4.2 | R+11.7 | R+14.6 | R+16.9 | R+15.7 | R+23.3 | R+29.2 | R+26.4 | R+31.0 | R+30.4 | R+29.4 | R+40.6 |
| Arkansas | D+28.0 | D+10.0 | R+4.1 | R+6.6 | D+13.1 | D+9.2 | R+6.1 | R+7.4 | R+27.7 | R+28.2 | R+30.8 | R+33.0 | R+29.8 | R+57.8 |
| Arizona | R+19.3 | R+25.8 | R+15.9 | R+13.7 | R+9.5 | R+7.0 | R+7.1 | R+8.1 | R+16.0 | R+13.2 | R+6.0 | R+4.2 | R+4.1 | D+15.2 |
| California | R+3.9 | R+8.3 | D+1.9 | D+4.2 | D+10.1 | D+5.0 | D+11.9 | D+12.6 | D+17.2 | D+19.8 | D+30.0 | D+25.3 | D+22.3 | D+26.2 |
| Colorado | R+13.9 | R+17.3 | R+10.4 | R+0.1 | R+1.3 | R+11.0 | R+9.5 | R+2.2 | D+1.7 | D+1.6 | D+3.1 | D+9.3 | D+12.8 | D+26.7 |
| Connecticut | R+7.3 | R+0.5 | R+3.7 | D+2.6 | D+1.3 | D+11.3 | D+18.0 | D+13.0 | D+15.3 | D+13.6 | D+12.1 | D+15.8 | D+16.3 | D+23.6 |
| District of Columbia | D+64.3 | D+80.2 | D+90.6 | D+78.3 | D+73.7 | D+70.8 | D+80.4 | D+83.5 | D+79.4 | D+81.2 | D+89.2 | D+84.4 | D+88.1 | D+23.9 |
| Delaware | D+3.4 | D+8.1 | R+1.6 | R+4.7 | D+3.5 | D+7.8 | D+12.9 | D+10.2 | D+17.9 | D+15.0 | D+9.8 | D+14.7 | D+16.5 | D+13.1 |
| Florida | D+3.3 | R+7.5 | R+12.3 | R+14.7 | R+9.3 | R+3.2 | R+0.5 | R+2.6 | R+4.5 | R+3.0 | R+3.5 | R+7.9 | R+11.7 | R+15.0 |
| Georgia | D+31.8 | D+25.9 | R+2.1 | R+12.6 | R+6.2 | R+10.7 | R+12.5 | R+14.2 | R+12.6 | R+11.8 | R+7.5 | R+4.3 | R+0.7 | R+32.5 |
| Hawaii | D+0.5 | D+12.8 | D+6.9 | D+17.4 | D+6.5 | D+19.1 | D+19.1 | D+11.3 | D+38.6 | D+39.5 | D+32.7 | D+25.5 | D+25.1 | D+24.6 |
| Iowa | R+3.1 | R+3.5 | D+10.9 | D+18.1 | D+0.6 | D+2.0 | R+0.2 | D+1.8 | D+2.3 | D+2.0 | R+12.4 | R+12.9 | R+11.9 | R+8.8 |
| Idaho | R+25.6 | R+34.4 | R+28.2 | R+18.8 | R+26.2 | R+31.1 | R+42.2 | R+36.2 | R+33.4 | R+36.8 | R+38.8 | R+36.3 | R+36.0 | R+10.5 |
| Illinois | R+4.1 | D+1.9 | D+5.4 | D+5.7 | D+10.3 | D+9.7 | D+11.8 | D+12.9 | D+18.1 | D+13.2 | D+15.8 | D+12.8 | D+12.6 | D+16.7 |
| Indiana | R+9.9 | R+9.0 | R+5.8 | R+12.4 | R+14.6 | R+15.8 | R+16.5 | R+18.4 | R+6.3 | R+14.3 | R+22.5 | R+20.9 | R+17.8 | R+7.9 |
| Kansas | R+9.8 | R+16.3 | R+15.7 | R+5.7 | R+14.0 | R+29.6 | R+22.4 | R+23.2 | R+22.6 | R+26.2 | R+24.4 | R+19.5 | R+14.9 | R+5.1 |
| Kentucky | D+5.2 | D+9.2 | R+2.4 | R+3.9 | R+3.2 | R+8.4 | R+16.0 | R+17.5 | R+23.8 | R+27.0 | R+33.6 | R+30.9 | R+29.5 | R+34.7 |
| Louisiana | D+3.8 | D+5.0 | R+4.5 | R+2.6 | R+1.6 | D+3.6 | R+8.4 | R+12.2 | R+26.3 | R+21.4 | R+22.6 | R+23.5 | R+20.9 | R+24.7 |
| Massachusetts | D+14.1 | D+10.4 | D+15.5 | D+15.8 | D+17.3 | D+27.8 | D+29.0 | D+28.0 | D+19.0 | D+19.6 | D+27.1 | D+29.7 | D+27.4 | D+13.3 |
| Maryland | D+4.0 | D+13.8 | D+12.8 | D+4.9 | D+9.7 | D+7.8 | D+16.3 | D+15.6 | D+18.5 | D+22.7 | D+25.8 | D+29.5 | D+31.0 | D+27.0 |
| Maine | R+3.0 | D+6.8 | R+3.8 | R+3.7 | D+5.2 | D+15.9 | D+5.0 | D+11.7 | D+10.3 | D+11.8 | D+1.0 | D+4.8 | D+8.6 | D+11.6 |
| Michigan | R+7.6 | D+3.5 | R+0.8 | R+0.2 | D+2.3 | D+5.2 | D+4.7 | D+5.9 | D+9.4 | D+5.7 | R+2.5 | R+1.7 | D+0.1 | D+7.6 |
| Minnesota | D+11.2 | D+15.0 | D+18.5 | D+14.9 | D+8.5 | D+9.3 | D+2.0 | D+6.0 | D+3.1 | D+4.0 | R+0.6 | D+2.7 | D+5.8 | R+5.3 |
| Missouri | D+1.6 | D+3.5 | R+1.7 | D+3.8 | D+6.1 | R+2.4 | R+4.0 | R+4.8 | R+7.5 | R+13.5 | R+21.9 | R+20.2 | R+17.2 | R+18.8 |
| Mississippi | R+0.2 | D+9.2 | R+6.3 | R+13.2 | R+16.8 | R+15.0 | R+17.7 | R+17.4 | R+20.7 | R+15.5 | R+20.4 | R+21.3 | R+21.6 | R+21.5 |
| Montana | R+9.7 | R+16.7 | R+4.3 | D+1.8 | R+3.5 | R+12.8 | R+27.8 | R+18.5 | R+9.7 | R+18.0 | R+24.4 | R+21.3 | R+19.1 | R+9.4 |
| North Carolina | D+9.0 | D+8.4 | R+5.7 | R+8.5 | R+7.8 | R+14.5 | R+13.5 | R+10.0 | R+7.0 | R+6.0 | R+6.0 | R+5.9 | R+1.8 | R+10.8 |
| North Dakota | R+8.2 | R+31.4 | R+13.1 | R+5.4 | R+22.7 | R+17.3 | R+30.0 | R+25.3 | R+16.2 | R+24.2 | R+41.8 | R+39.0 | R+35.9 | R+27.7 |
| Nebraska | R+23.4 | R+32.6 | R+23.7 | R+13.3 | R+29.5 | R+30.6 | R+30.9 | R+31.2 | R+22.6 | R+26.2 | R+29.3 | R+24.1 | R+19.3 | D+4.0 |
| New Hampshire | R+13.6 | R+23.5 | R+19.5 | R+18.7 | R+5.3 | D+1.8 | R+1.9 | D+3.9 | D+2.4 | D+1.7 | R+1.8 | D+3.0 | D+4.3 | D+17.9 |
| New Jersey | R+4.3 | R+4.2 | R+2.7 | R+6.0 | R+4.1 | D+10.5 | D+15.9 | D+9.2 | D+8.4 | D+14.0 | D+12.3 | D+11.6 | D+7.5 | D+11.8 |
| New Mexico | R+4.6 | R+9.2 | R+2.4 | D+2.8 | D+3.4 | R+1.4 | R+0.5 | D+1.7 | D+8.0 | D+6.7 | D+7.1 | D+6.5 | D+7.6 | D+12.2 |
| Nevada | R+6.6 | R+29.3 | R+16.3 | R+13.8 | R+3.3 | R+8.3 | R+4.2 | R+0.1 | D+5.4 | D+2.9 | D+0.4 | R+2.1 | R+1.7 | D+5.0 |
| New York | D+2.4 | D+7.7 | D+10.3 | D+11.9 | D+12.0 | D+22.6 | D+25.6 | D+21.1 | D+19.8 | D+24.7 | D+21.3 | D+18.9 | D+14.2 | D+11.8 |
| Ohio | R+1.9 | R+0.9 | R+0.6 | R+3.1 | R+4.6 | R+2.3 | R+4.2 | D+0.4 | R+2.7 | R+0.9 | R+10.8 | R+12.7 | R+9.8 | R+7.9 |
| Oklahoma | R+3.3 | R+16.1 | R+19.9 | R+9.0 | R+18.2 | R+18.3 | R+22.7 | R+28.7 | R+38.7 | R+37.5 | R+40.8 | R+38.4 | R+33.4 | R+30.1 |
| Oregon | R+2.3 | R+0.5 | D+6.1 | D+12.6 | D+6.4 | R+0.1 | R+0.1 | D+6.7 | D+9.4 | D+8.6 | D+10.1 | D+12.1 | D+16.4 | D+18.6 |
| Pennsylvania | D+0.6 | D+2.9 | D+10.9 | D+5.5 | D+4.2 | D+0.8 | D+3.8 | D+5.0 | D+3.1 | D+1.5 | R+3.0 | R+3.4 | R+0.2 | R+0.8 |
| Rhode Island | D+9.2 | D+22.9 | D+14.7 | D+19.6 | D+16.8 | D+28.5 | D+30.8 | D+23.6 | D+21.0 | D+24.1 | D+14.4 | D+16.7 | D+15.7 | D+6.4 |
| South Carolina | D+11.0 | D+9.3 | R+9.9 | R+16.3 | R+16.2 | R+15.7 | R+16.9 | R+14.8 | R+16.5 | R+14.5 | R+17.1 | R+16.4 | R+16.6 | R+27.7 |
| South Dakota | R+3.6 | R+20.7 | R+8.3 | D+1.4 | R+11.4 | R+13.3 | R+23.8 | R+19.3 | R+16.0 | R+22.4 | R+34.2 | R+31.4 | R+28.4 | R+24.8 |
| Tennessee | D+11.0 | D+10.3 | D+2.0 | R+8.6 | R+1.7 | R+6.9 | R+4.5 | R+11.9 | R+22.6 | R+24.6 | R+29.5 | R+28.2 | R+28.6 | R+39.7 |
| Texas | D+1.1 | R+3.7 | R+9.2 | R+4.9 | R+11.4 | R+14.8 | R+22.4 | R+20.5 | R+19.3 | R+19.9 | R+11.7 | R+10.2 | R+12.4 | R+13.5 |
| Utah | R+32.1 | R+45.3 | R+31.9 | R+27.0 | R+34.4 | R+33.5 | R+44.0 | R+44.2 | R+36.4 | R+53.2 | R+27.0 | R+25.9 | R+20.7 | D+11.3 |
| Virginia | R+3.5 | R+3.0 | R+7.0 | R+12.9 | R+12.0 | R+11.6 | R+8.8 | R+5.8 | R+1.0 | even | D+3.4 | D+5.8 | D+7.4 | D+10.9 |
| Vermont | R+14.8 | D+3.4 | D+1.0 | D+4.2 | D+13.6 | D+16.9 | D+10.3 | D+23.1 | D+30.4 | D+32.6 | D+28.1 | D+32.1 | D+34.3 | D+49.0 |
| Washington | R+6.1 | R+3.6 | D+5.2 | D+9.4 | D+8.3 | D+4.9 | D+5.4 | D+9.8 | D+10.1 | D+11.3 | D+15.3 | D+15.3 | D+20.4 | D+26.6 |
| Wisconsin | R+0.4 | D+5.4 | D+9.1 | D+11.4 | R+1.3 | D+2.4 | R+0.3 | D+2.9 | D+6.7 | D+3.1 | R+3.0 | R+3.9 | D+0.6 | D+1.0 |
| West Virginia | D+14.0 | D+15.3 | D+7.8 | D+12.6 | D+8.6 | D+7.2 | R+7.0 | R+10.5 | R+20.7 | R+31.3 | R+46.5 | R+44.1 | R+41.2 | R+55.2 |
| Wyoming | R+21.8 | R+27.7 | R+24.5 | R+15.0 | R+14.5 | R+24.4 | R+42.5 | R+38.1 | R+40.5 | R+46.2 | R+53.6 | R+49.5 | R+45.5 | R+23.7 |
| The nation (two-party margin) | D+2.1 | R+10.6 | R+18.3 | R+7.8 | D+6.9 | D+9.5 | D+0.5 | R+2.5 | D+7.4 | D+3.9 | D+2.2 | D+4.5 | R+1.5 |
The vote counts behind every figure are in the spreadsheet.
27 states switched sides
27 states ended on the other side of the nation from where they began. 13 crossed once, by 1988, and stayed; nine went back and forth.
28 states are carried by a different party than in 1976: 16 now Republican, twelve now Democratic.
Crossed once, 1980–1988, and stayed13
Crossed once, later: 1996–20165
Went back and forth9
The biggest moves
Main Street, Logan, West Virginia, April 1974. Photo: Jack Corn for the EPA's DOCUMERICA project, U.S. National Archives (public domain).
Arkansas moved 58 points toward Republicans against the nation, more than any other state; Vermont moved furthest the other way, 49 points.
Arkansas's margin moved 61 points toward Republicans, more than any other state's; Vermont's moved furthest the other way, 45 points.
West Virginia, in the photograph above, went from 14 points more Democratic than the nation in 1976 to 41 points more Republican in 2024: 55 points toward Republicans, the 2nd biggest move. The map below shows how far every state moved, in either measure and between any two elections; the tracks under it follow West Virginia and the other big movers down the years, and under them is every state, each one opening in full.
West Virginia, in the photograph above, went from carried by Carter by 16 points in 1976 to carried by Trump by 43 points in 2024: its margin moved 59 points toward Republicans, the 2nd biggest move. The map below shows how far every state moved, in either measure and between any two elections; the tracks under it follow West Virginia and the other big movers down the years, and under them is every state, each one opening in full.
How far each state moved in its own margin, 1976 to 2024. This map is not who won.
Toward Republicans Arkansas 61, West Virginia 59, Alabama 44Toward Democrats Vermont 45, Maryland 23, Colorado 23
Every state, fifty years
Each line is a state’s own two-party margin from 1976 to 2024; the solid line is an even race, the dashed one the national margin. Open one to see every result, its counties and its patterns.
Country and city traded places
Howard County, Iowa, October 2023. Photo: Wikideas1, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons.
In 1976, rural counties voted 4 points more Democratic than the big metros. In 2024, they voted 58 points more Republican.
The states moved because the places inside them did. Here is every county the story can map, one dot each.
Every county the story can map, 3,110 of them, each a dot where it sits. A dot's size is the vote it cast for the two parties in 2024, so the cities are the big ones. Its color is how far it voted from the nation in 1976, the first year the county file covers.
Every county the story can map, 3,110 of them, each a dot where it sits. A dot's size is the vote it cast for the two parties in 2024, so the cities are the big ones. Its color is its own two-party margin in 1976, the first year the county file covers: blue where Carter carried it, red where Ford did.
Now the dots line up by that lean. Left of the line, more Democratic than the nation; right of it, more Republican. About 5 in 10 counties sit to the right.
Now the dots line up by that margin. Left of the line, carried by Carter; right of it, by Ford. About 5 in 10 counties sit to the right.
The same dots, sorted by the kind of place, from the biggest metro areas at the top to rural counties at the bottom. In 1976 the rural counties, added together, voted 5 points more Democratic than the nation, and the big metros 1 point more Democratic. The countryside was the more Democratic of the two.
The same dots, sorted by the kind of place, from the biggest metro areas at the top to rural counties at the bottom. In 1976 the rural counties, added together, voted for Carter by 7 points, and the big metros for Carter by 3 points. The countryside was the more Democratic of the two.
2024. The rows have pulled apart: the rural counties 44 points more Republican than the nation, the big metros 14 points more Democratic. 58 points now separate them, the other way round from 1976, when 4 did.
2024. The rows have pulled apart: the rural counties voted for Trump by 46 points, the big metros for Harris by 12 points. 58 points now separate them, the other way round from 1976, when 4 did.
The numbers: each kind of place
| Counties | How many | 1976 | 1980 | 1984 | 1988 | 1992 | 1996 | 2000 | 2004 | 2008 | 2012 | 2016 | 2020 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big metroscounties in metro areas of 1 million people or more | 443 | D+0.9 | D+2.7 | D+4.7 | D+3.5 | D+4.7 | D+6.1 | D+9.2 | D+9.0 | D+9.7 | D+10.9 | D+15.5 | D+14.6 | D+13.7 |
| Smaller metroscounties in metro areas under 1 million | 739 | R+2.7 | R+3.3 | R+4.8 | R+4.3 | R+6.0 | R+6.7 | R+7.8 | R+7.6 | R+7.7 | R+8.7 | R+11.6 | R+10.6 | R+9.0 |
| Small cities and townsoutside a metro area, with a town or city of 5,000 or more | 897 | D+0.3 | R+2.5 | R+6.9 | R+4.5 | R+5.3 | R+7.7 | R+14.9 | R+15.8 | R+18.6 | R+21.1 | R+33.3 | R+34.0 | R+31.6 |
| Ruraloutside a metro area, with no town of 5,000 | 1,034 | D+5.3 | R+2.4 | R+4.9 | R+1.8 | R+3.8 | R+7.7 | R+18.8 | R+19.0 | R+24.8 | R+28.4 | R+43.8 | R+46.4 | R+44.2 |
What it means for 2026
This year's ballots carry no president, but 45 states elect a senator, a governor or both. Each row below is one of those races with one Democrat against one Republican. The open circle is where the state's presidential vote landed in 2024; the filled circle is where the forecast puts this race. A short arrow means the race is expected to run much as the state voted for president. A long one means a candidate is running well ahead of the party.
The forecast puts the national House vote at D+8.4; that is the nation each race is compared with.
Where the races run from the 2024 vote
The forecast puts this year's national House vote at D+8.4. The 2024 presidential vote was R+1.5, so the country as a whole is forecast to vote 10 points more Democratic than it did then (a House vote against a presidential one, the nearest pair there is). Each state is colored by how far its races are forecast to run from its own 2024 presidential margin. A state with two races shows their average. Gray: no race of one Democrat against one Republican.
Furthest toward DemocratsPennsylvania →D 24.9 · New Jersey →D 18.8 · Rhode Island →D 17.9 · Oklahoma →D 17.4 · Delaware →D 17.4
Toward RepublicansVermont →R 41.4 · New Hampshire →R 7.2 · Maine →R 6.5 · Nevada →R 1.6 · New York →R 0.6
Closest to their 2024 voteNew York →R 0.6 · Oregon →D 0.7 · California →D 1.0 · Minnesota →D 1.0 · Maryland →D 1.5
A Senate or governor’s race is not a presidential vote. The candidates are different, some are well known in their state and some are not, and a race can run far from the state’s usual lean for reasons that will not last. The forecast reads the polls, and polls have missed before, in both directions.
Point at, tap or tab to a race to see it here.
The numbers: each race
| Race | Forecast | Against the nation | State in 2024 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama governor | R+14.5 | R+22.9 | R+29.4 | D+6.5 |
| Alabama Senate | R+18.8 | R+27.2 | R+29.4 | D+2.2 |
| Arizona governor | D+6.5 | R+1.9 | R+4.1 | D+2.2 |
| Arkansas governor | R+19.2 | R+27.6 | R+29.8 | D+2.3 |
| Arkansas Senate | R+12.8 | R+21.2 | R+29.8 | D+8.7 |
| California governor | D+21.8 | D+13.4 | D+22.3 | R+8.9 |
| Colorado governor | D+21.7 | D+13.3 | D+12.8 | D+0.5 |
| Colorado Senate | D+27.1 | D+18.7 | D+12.8 | D+5.9 |
| Connecticut governor | D+18.6 | D+10.2 | D+16.3 | R+6.1 |
| Delaware Senate | D+32.3 | D+23.9 | D+16.5 | D+7.5 |
| Florida governor | R+6.8 | R+15.2 | R+11.7 | R+3.5 |
| Florida Senate | R+8.8 | R+17.2 | R+11.7 | R+5.5 |
| Georgia governor | R+1.5 | R+9.9 | R+0.7 | R+9.2 |
| Georgia Senate | D+8.6 | D+0.2 | R+0.7 | D+0.9 |
| Hawaii governor | D+37.9 | D+29.5 | D+25.1 | D+4.5 |
| Idaho governor | R+21.6 | R+30.0 | R+36.0 | D+6.1 |
| Illinois governor | D+22.8 | D+14.4 | D+12.6 | D+1.8 |
| Illinois Senate | D+16.7 | D+8.3 | D+12.6 | R+4.3 |
| Iowa governor | D+6.4 | R+2.0 | R+11.9 | D+9.9 |
| Iowa Senate | R+1.0 | R+9.4 | R+11.9 | D+2.6 |
| Kansas governor | R+6.7 | R+15.1 | R+14.9 | R+0.2 |
| Kansas Senate | R+1.9 | R+10.3 | R+14.9 | D+4.6 |
| Kentucky Senate | R+14.4 | R+22.8 | R+29.5 | D+6.7 |
| Louisiana Senate | R+17.0 | R+25.4 | R+20.9 | R+4.6 |
| Maine Senate | D+0.6 | R+7.8 | D+8.6 | R+16.4 |
| Maryland governor | D+31.0 | D+22.6 | D+31.0 | R+8.4 |
| Massachusetts governor | D+24.4 | D+16.0 | D+27.4 | R+11.4 |
| Massachusetts Senate | D+30.8 | D+22.4 | D+27.4 | R+5.0 |
| Michigan governor | D+6.6 | R+1.8 | D+0.1 | R+1.9 |
| Michigan Senate | D+1.7 | R+6.7 | D+0.1 | R+6.7 |
| Minnesota governor | D+8.1 | R+0.3 | D+5.8 | R+6.1 |
| Minnesota Senate | D+2.5 | R+5.9 | D+5.8 | R+11.7 |
| Nevada governor | R+4.8 | R+13.2 | R+1.7 | R+11.5 |
| New Hampshire governor | R+14.4 | R+22.8 | D+4.3 | R+27.1 |
| New Hampshire Senate | D+5.5 | R+2.9 | D+4.3 | R+7.2 |
| New Jersey Senate | D+24.8 | D+16.4 | D+7.5 | D+8.9 |
| New Mexico governor | D+7.4 | R+1.0 | D+7.6 | R+8.7 |
| New Mexico Senate | D+18.6 | D+10.2 | D+7.6 | D+2.6 |
| New York governor | D+12.1 | D+3.7 | D+14.2 | R+10.5 |
| North Carolina Senate | D+8.3 | R+0.1 | R+1.8 | D+1.7 |
| Ohio governor | D+1.2 | R+7.2 | R+9.8 | D+2.6 |
| Ohio Senate | D+1.8 | R+6.6 | R+9.8 | D+3.2 |
| Oklahoma governor | R+10.7 | R+19.1 | R+33.4 | D+14.3 |
| Oklahoma Senate | R+24.3 | R+32.7 | R+33.4 | D+0.8 |
| Oregon governor | R+0.1 | R+8.5 | D+16.4 | R+24.9 |
| Oregon Senate | D+31.1 | D+22.7 | D+16.4 | D+6.4 |
| Pennsylvania governor | D+23.1 | D+14.7 | R+0.2 | D+15.0 |
| Rhode Island Senate | D+32.1 | D+23.7 | D+15.7 | D+8.0 |
| South Carolina governor | R+13.4 | R+21.8 | R+16.6 | R+5.2 |
| South Carolina Senate | R+5.1 | R+13.5 | R+16.6 | D+3.1 |
| South Dakota governor | R+15.3 | R+23.7 | R+28.4 | D+4.7 |
| Tennessee governor | R+19.8 | R+28.2 | R+28.6 | D+0.4 |
| Tennessee Senate | R+27.2 | R+35.6 | R+28.6 | R+7.0 |
| Texas governor | R+6.5 | R+14.9 | R+12.4 | R+2.5 |
| Texas Senate | D+0.7 | R+7.7 | R+12.4 | D+4.6 |
| Vermont governor | R+8.6 | R+17.0 | D+34.3 | R+51.3 |
| Virginia Senate | D+22.8 | D+14.4 | D+7.4 | D+7.0 |
| West Virginia Senate | R+36.3 | R+44.7 | R+41.2 | R+3.5 |
| Wisconsin governor | D+2.0 | R+6.4 | D+0.6 | R+7.1 |
| Wyoming governor | R+29.4 | R+37.8 | R+45.5 | D+7.6 |
| Wyoming Senate | R+33.0 | R+41.4 | R+45.5 | D+4.1 |
Explore every election
The map in 1976, left of the line, and in 2024, right of it. Choose any election for either side, by county or by state, then drag the line or move it with the arrow keys. Point at a place to see its figures in both years.
1976 to 2024, every state at once
Top row: each state's own two-party margin in 1976. Bottom row: in 2024. The line joins the two; the tick on each row is the nation's margin. The shaded band is 5 points either side of an even race. D.C. (D+66 in 1976, D+87 in 2024) is drawn at the edge.
Point at a line to name it; click or tap it, or choose a state, to follow it.
Part two
The next fifty years
Part One ends at the bottom row, in 2024. Part Two picks up the lines where they stop and looks up to fifty years ahead. It will look at:
- Where each state's lean could drift from here, carried forward from fifty years of moves like the ones above.
- How many electoral votes each state could hold after the coming reapportionments, as the population shifts.
- How the electorate's makeup could change: age, race and ethnicity, education, and where people live.
- Which states could cross the national line next, and which look settled.
Scenarios, not a forecast: each one will say what it assumes.