Approval
Disapprove +4.6Presidential approval · Approval
Approve 46% · Disapprove 50.6%
- Field dates
- Oct 1–Oct 31, 2025
- Sample
- 574 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Pollster file
ActiVote
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 8
- Mean absolute error
- 1.58percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+0.58
- Represented cycles
- 12024
- Current archive
- 38canonical records
- History span
- Oct 17, 2024through Nov 2, 2024
Identity
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2024
8 eligible historical polls is a limited denominator; both MAE and bias may move materially as another cycle is added.
Canonical 2025–2026 archive
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
12 shown · 38 total
Approval
Disapprove +8Presidential approval · Approval
Approve 43.5% · Disapprove 51.5%
- Field dates
- Sep 1–Sep 30, 2025
- Sample
- 485 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Approval
Disapprove +6.7Presidential approval · Approval
Approve 43.7% · Disapprove 50.4%
- Field dates
- Aug 1–Aug 31, 2025
- Sample
- 412 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Approval
Disapprove +7.6Presidential approval · Approval
Approve 44.5% · Disapprove 52.1%
- Field dates
- Jul 1–Jul 31, 2025
- Sample
- 454 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Approval
Disapprove +7Presidential approval · Approval
Approve 44.5% · Disapprove 51.5%
- Field dates
- Jun 1–Jun 30, 2025
- Sample
- 523 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Approval
Disapprove +3.9Presidential approval · Approval
Approve 46.3% · Disapprove 50.2%
- Field dates
- May 1–May 31, 2025
- Sample
- 488 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Approval
Disapprove +6.1Presidential approval · Approval
Approve 45% · Disapprove 51.1%
- Field dates
- Apr 1–Apr 30, 2025
- Sample
- 576 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Approval
Disapprove +1.8Presidential approval · Approval
Approve 47.6% · Disapprove 49.4%
- Field dates
- Mar 1–Mar 31, 2025
- Sample
- 799 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Approval
Approve +0.7Presidential approval · Approval
Approve 49.5% · Disapprove 48.8%
- Field dates
- Feb 1–Feb 28, 2025
- Sample
- 1,760 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Approval
Approve +6.1Presidential approval · Approval
Approve 52% · Disapprove 45.9%
- Field dates
- Jan 20–Jan 31, 2025
- Sample
- 1,182 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Approval
Disapprove +15Presidential approval · Approval
Approve 40% · Disapprove 55%
- Field dates
- May 1–May 31, 2026
- Sample
- 672 A
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Approval
Disapprove +16Presidential approval · Approval
Approve 40% · Disapprove 56%
- Field dates
- Apr 1–Apr 30, 2026
- Sample
- 636 A
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Certified-result history
Eligible historical observations
8 shown · 8 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | PA · President | Pres-G | 2024-11-02 | — | D+1.0 | R+1.7 | D+2.7 |
| 2024 | NC · President | Pres-G | 2024-11-02 | — | R+2.0 | R+3.2 | D+1.2 |
| 2024 | MI · President | Pres-G | 2024-11-02 | — | 0 | R+1.4 | D+1.4 |
| 2024 | GA · President | Pres-G | 2024-11-02 | — | R+2.0 | R+2.2 | D+0.2 |
| 2024 | WI · President | Pres-G | 2024-11-01 | — | D+2.0 | R+0.9 | D+2.9 |
| 2024 | AZ · President | Pres-G | 2024-11-01 | — | R+2.0 | R+5.5 | D+3.5 |
| 2024 | national · President | Pres-G | 2024-10-17 | — | R+2.0 | R+1.5 | R+0.5 |
| 2024 | GA · President | Pres-G | 2024-10-17 | — | R+2.0 | R+2.2 | D+0.2 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.