Bruce Blakeman 41% · Kathy Hochul 59%
- Field dates
- Oct 1–Oct 23, 2026
- Sample
- 400 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Pollster file
ActiVote
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 8
- Mean absolute error
- 1.58percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+0.58
- Represented cycles
- 12024
- Current archive
- 60canonical records
- History span
- Oct 17, 2024through Nov 2, 2024
Identity
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2024
8 eligible historical polls is a limited denominator; both MAE and bias may move materially as another cycle is added.
Canonical 2025–2026 archive
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-10-24. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
12 shown · 60 total
Governor
Pritzker +17.4Illinois · Governor
JB Pritzker 58.7% · Darren Bailey 41.3%
- Field dates
- Oct 2–Oct 22, 2026
- Sample
- 400 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot
Dem +7.4Generic ballot
Dem 53.7% · Rep 46.3%
- Field dates
- Oct 15–Oct 21, 2026
- Sample
- 1,000 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Governor
Shapiro +23Pennsylvania · Governor
Josh Shapiro 61.5% · Stacy Garrity 38.5%
- Field dates
- Oct 1–Oct 21, 2026
- Sample
- 400 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Senate
Talarico +2Texas · Senate
James Talarico 51% · Ken Paxton 49%
- Field dates
- Oct 17–Oct 21, 2026
- Sample
- 400 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Governor
Abbott +5Texas · Governor
Greg Abbott 52.5% · Gina Hinojosa 47.5%
- Field dates
- Oct 17–Oct 21, 2026
- Sample
- 400 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Don Tracy 41.5% · Juliana Stratton 58.5%
- Field dates
- Sep 26–Oct 20, 2026
- Sample
- 400 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Governor
Jackson +3Georgia · Governor
Keisha Lance Bottoms 48.5% · Rick Jackson 51.5%
- Field dates
- Oct 6–Oct 20, 2026
- Sample
- 400 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Senate
Ossoff +8Georgia · Senate
Jon Ossoff 54% · Mike Collins 46%
- Field dates
- Oct 6–Oct 20, 2026
- Sample
- 400 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Senate
Cooper +13.8North Carolina · Senate
Roy Cooper 56.9% · Michael Whatley 43.1%
- Field dates
- Oct 8–Oct 20, 2026
- Sample
- 400 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Governor
Donalds +3.4Florida · Governor
Byron Donalds 51.7% · David Jolly 48.3%
- Field dates
- Oct 1–Oct 19, 2026
- Sample
- 400 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Governor
Ramaswamy +2.8Ohio · Governor
Amy Acton 48.6% · Vivek Ramaswamy 51.4%
- Field dates
- Sep 27–Oct 19, 2026
- Sample
- 400 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Certified-result history
Eligible historical observations
8 shown · 8 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | PA · President | Pres-G | 2024-11-02 | — | D+1.0 | R+1.7 | D+2.7 |
| 2024 | NC · President | Pres-G | 2024-11-02 | — | R+2.0 | R+3.2 | D+1.2 |
| 2024 | MI · President | Pres-G | 2024-11-02 | — | 0 | R+1.4 | D+1.4 |
| 2024 | GA · President | Pres-G | 2024-11-02 | — | R+2.0 | R+2.2 | D+0.2 |
| 2024 | WI · President | Pres-G | 2024-11-01 | — | D+2.0 | R+0.9 | D+2.9 |
| 2024 | AZ · President | Pres-G | 2024-11-01 | — | R+2.0 | R+5.5 | D+3.5 |
| 2024 | national · President | Pres-G | 2024-10-17 | — | R+2.0 | R+1.5 | R+0.5 |
| 2024 | GA · President | Pres-G | 2024-10-17 | — | R+2.0 | R+2.2 | D+0.2 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.