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Pollster file

GBAO

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
13
Mean absolute error
5.20percentage points
Historical bias
D+1.83
Represented cycles
42012–2020
Current archive
39canonical records
History span
Oct 17, 2012through Oct 26, 2020
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
GBAO (D) · GBAO Strategies · GBAO Strategies (D)
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2012 · 2016 · 2018 · 2020

13 eligible historical polls across 4 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-10-24. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 39 total

Osborn +1

Don't know 7% · Pete Ricketts 45% · Dan Osborn 46%

Field dates
Oct 18–Oct 22, 2026
Sample
800 LV
Sponsor / client
Working Class Majority PAC
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Jackson +1

Rick Jackson 46% · Keisha Lance Bottoms 45%

Field dates
Oct 7–Oct 15, 2026
Sample
2,000 RV
Sponsor / client
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Osborn +1

Pete Ricketts 46% · Dan Osborn 47%

Field dates
Sep 3–Sep 8, 2026
Sample
800 LV
Sponsor / client
Working Class Majority PAC
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Hinojosa +2

Don't know 4% · Pat Dixon 4% · Greg Abbott 45% · Gina Hinojosa 47%

Field dates
Oct 5–Oct 8, 2026
Sample
800 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Kotek +4

Don't know 6% · Brett Smith 6% · Christine Drazan 42% · Tina Kotek 46%

Field dates
Oct 1–Oct 4, 2026
Sample
800 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Hamilton +5

David Graham 7% · Roger Marshall 41% · Adam Hamilton 46%

Field dates
Sep 30–Oct 4, 2026
Sample
600 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Hamilton +5

Roger Marshall 44% · Adam Hamilton 49%

Field dates
Sep 30–Oct 4, 2026
Sample
600 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Osborn +1

Don't know 7% · Pete Ricketts 45% · Dan Osborn 46%

Field dates
Apr 16–Apr 20, 2026
Sample
800 LV
Sponsor / client
Working Class Majority PAC
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Tied

Don't know 5% · Pete Ricketts 47% · Dan Osborn 47%

Field dates
Jul 22–Jul 26, 2026
Sample
800 LV
Sponsor / client
Working Class Majority PAC
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Johnson +1

Brad Finstad 46% · Jake Johnson 47%

Field dates
Sep 18–Sep 21, 2026
Sample
500 LV
Sponsor / client
House Majority PAC
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
McCann +1

Don't know 7% · Bill Huizenga 46% · Sean McCann 47%

Field dates
Sep 13–Sep 16, 2026
Sample
500 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

13 shown · 13 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
2020KS · SenateSen-G2020-10-26600D+0.5R+11.4D+11.9
2020national · PresidentPres-G2020-10-171,150D+13.0D+4.5D+8.5
2020national · HouseHouse-G2020-10-171,150D+12.0D+3.0D+9.0
2020NM · SenateSen-G2020-10-16600D+11.0D+6.1D+4.9
2020NM · PresidentPres-G2020-10-16600D+13.0D+10.8D+2.2
2020TX-6 · HouseHouse-G2020-10-15400R+4.0R+8.8D+4.8
2018OH-12 · HouseHouse-G2018-10-215700R+4.2D+4.2
2018TX · SenateSen-G2018-10-201,000R+4.0R+2.6R+1.4
2018OH-12 · HouseHouse-G2018-07-24500R+3.0R+0.8R+2.2
2016MN-2 · HouseHouse-G2016-10-28500D+5.0R+1.8D+6.8
2012NM · SenateSen-G2012-10-28600D+10.0D+5.7D+4.3
2012NY-25 · HouseHouse-G2012-10-18400D+10.0D+14.8R+4.8
2012IL-17 · HouseHouse-G2012-10-17450D+4.0D+6.6R+2.6

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.