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FORECAST55 DAYS OUT
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Joint polling team

The New York Times/Siena College

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
101
Mean absolute error
3.98percentage points
Historical bias
D+1.22
Represented cycles
62016–2024
Current archive
36canonical records
History span
Oct 22, 2016through Nov 2, 2024
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
New York Times/Siena College · New York Times/Siena University · The New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena University · The New York Times/Siena College/The Philadelphia Inquirer · The New York Times/Siena University · The New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University
Participating organizations
The New York Times · Siena College
Cycles represented
2016 · 2017 · 2018 · 2020 · 2022 · 2024

101 eligible historical polls across 6 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 36 total

Pingree +15.8

Don't know 4.11% · Someone else 0.9% · Bobby Charles 39.62% · Hannah Pingree 55.38%

Field dates
Jun 19–Jun 26, 2026
Sample
608 LV
Sponsor / client
Portland Press Herald
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Platner +2.2

Don't know 3.46% · Someone else 0.32% · Susan Collins 47.02% · Graham Platner 49.2%

Field dates
Jun 19–Jun 26, 2026
Sample
608 LV
Sponsor / client
Portland Press Herald
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +5.3

Dem 47.95% · Rep 42.7%

Field dates
Jan 12–Jan 17, 2026
Sample
1,625 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +1.9

Dem 47.12% · Rep 45.18%

Field dates
Sep 22–Sep 27, 2025
Sample
1,313 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +3

Dem 47% · Rep 44%

Field dates
Apr 21–Apr 24, 2025
Sample
913 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +10.3

Dem 49.72% · Rep 39.46%

Field dates
May 11–May 15, 2026
Sample
1,507 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

50 shown · 101 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
2024WI · PresidentPres-G2024-11-02—D+2.5R+0.9D+3.4
2024PA · PresidentPres-G2024-11-02—R+0.5R+1.7D+1.2
2024NV · PresidentPres-G2024-11-02—D+2.5R+3.1D+5.6
2024NC · PresidentPres-G2024-11-02—D+4.0R+3.2D+7.2
2024MI · PresidentPres-G2024-11-02—R+1.0R+1.4D+0.4
2024GA · PresidentPres-G2024-11-02—D+0.5R+2.2D+2.7
2024AZ · PresidentPres-G2024-11-02—R+4.5R+5.5D+1.0
20222022_Sen-G_GASen-G2022-10-26604D+3.0D+1.0D+2.0
20222022_Gov-G_GAGov-G2022-10-26604R+5.0R+7.5D+2.5
20222022_Sen-G_PASen-G2022-10-25620D+5.0D+4.9D+0.1
20222022_Sen-G_AZSen-G2022-10-25604D+6.0D+4.9D+1.1
20222022_Gov-G_PAGov-G2022-10-25620D+13.0D+14.8R+1.8
20222022_Gov-G_AZGov-G2022-10-256040D+0.7R+0.7
20222022_Sen-G_NVSen-G2022-10-228850D+0.8R+0.8
20222022_House-G_NM-2House-G2022-10-22398D+1.0D+0.7D+0.3
20222022_House-G_KS-3House-G2022-10-22431D+14.0D+12.2D+1.8
20222022_Gov-G_NVGov-G2022-10-22885R+4.0R+1.5R+2.5
20222022_House-G_PA-8House-G2022-10-20415D+6.0D+2.5D+3.5
20222022_House-G_NV-1House-G2022-10-203990D+5.6R+5.6
20202020_Pres-G_PAPres-G2020-10-291,862D+6.0D+1.2D+4.8
20202020_Pres-G_FLPres-G2020-10-291,451D+3.0R+3.4D+6.4
20202020_Sen-GS_AZSen-G2020-10-281,252D+7.0D+2.4D+4.7
20202020_Pres-G_WIPres-G2020-10-281,253D+11.0D+0.6D+10.4
20202020_Pres-G_AZPres-G2020-10-281,252D+6.0D+0.3D+5.7
20202020_Sen-G_NCSen-G2020-10-251,034D+3.0R+1.8D+4.8
20202020_Sen-G_MISen-G2020-10-25856D+8.0D+1.7D+6.3
20202020_Pres-G_NVPres-G2020-10-25809D+6.0D+2.4D+3.6
20202020_Pres-G_NCPres-G2020-10-251,034D+3.0R+1.4D+4.3
20202020_Pres-G_MIPres-G2020-10-25856D+8.0D+2.8D+5.2
20202020_Gov-G_NCGov-G2020-10-251,034D+9.0D+4.5D+4.5
20202020_Sen-G_TXSen-G2020-10-23802R+10.0R+9.6R+0.4
20202020_Pres-G_TXPres-G2020-10-23802R+4.0R+5.6D+1.6
20202020_Sen-G_MTSen-G2020-10-19758R+3.0R+10.0D+7.0
20202020_Sen-G_KSSen-G2020-10-19755R+4.0R+11.4D+7.4
20202020_Sen-G_IASen-G2020-10-19753R+1.0R+6.6D+5.6
20202020_Pres-G_MTPres-G2020-10-19758R+6.0R+16.4D+10.4
20202020_Pres-G_KSPres-G2020-10-19755R+7.0R+14.7D+7.7
20202020_Pres-G_IAPres-G2020-10-19753D+3.0R+8.2D+11.2
20202020_House-G_MT-1House-G2020-10-19758R+4.0R+12.8D+8.8
20202020_Gov-G_MTGov-G2020-10-19758R+4.0R+12.9D+8.9
20202020_Pres-G_USPres-G2020-10-17987D+9.0D+4.5D+4.5
20202020_Sen-OS_GASen-G2020-10-16759D+9.0D+7.0D+2.0
20202020_Sen-G_GASen-G2020-10-167590R+1.8D+1.8
20202020_Pres-G_GAPres-G2020-10-167590D+0.2R+0.2
20182018_House-G_NY-22House-G2018-11-03506R+0.9D+1.8R+2.7
20182018_House-G_NY-19House-G2018-11-03505D+1.7D+5.2R+3.5
20182018_House-G_KY-6House-G2018-11-03438R+0.4R+3.2D+2.8
20182018_House-G_WA-8House-G2018-11-02477D+2.8D+4.8R+2.0
20182018_House-G_VA-7House-G2018-11-02500R+1.8D+1.9R+3.8
20182018_House-G_MI-8House-G2018-11-02447D+6.6D+3.8D+2.8

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.