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FORECAST55 DAYS OUT
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Joint polling team

The New York Times/Siena College

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
101
Mean absolute error
3.98percentage points
Historical bias
D+1.22
Represented cycles
62016–2024
Current archive
36canonical records
History span
Oct 22, 2016through Nov 2, 2024
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
New York Times/Siena College · New York Times/Siena University · The New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena University · The New York Times/Siena College/The Philadelphia Inquirer · The New York Times/Siena University · The New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University
Participating organizations
The New York Times · Siena College
Cycles represented
2016 · 2017 · 2018 · 2020 · 2022 · 2024

101 eligible historical polls across 6 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 36 total

Shapiro +16.1

Don't know 6.16% · Someone else 0.4% · Stacy Garrity 38.69% · Josh Shapiro 54.75%

Field dates
Aug 17–Aug 21, 2026
Sample
760 LV
Sponsor / client
The Philadelphia Inquirer
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Shapiro +17.1

Don't know 7.87% · Someone else 0.45% · Stacy Garrity 37.3% · Josh Shapiro 54.37%

Field dates
Aug 17–Aug 21, 2026
Sample
760 RV
Sponsor / client
The Philadelphia Inquirer
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Race

HOU-AK-01

Begich +12

Don't know 8.63% · Someone else 1.07% · Nick Begich 51.14% · Matt Schultz 39.16%

Field dates
Jun 15–Jun 29, 2026
Sample
593 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Sullivan +2.4

Don't know 5.35% · Someone else 2.11% · Dan Sullivan 47.47% · Mary Peltola 45.06%

Field dates
Jun 15–Jun 29, 2026
Sample
593 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Husted +2.8

Don't know 3% · Someone else 0.23% · Jon Husted 49.8% · Sherrod Brown 47%

Field dates
Jun 15–Jun 28, 2026
Sample
601 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Ramaswamy +0.2

Don't know 6.06% · Someone else 0.41% · Vivek Ramaswamy 46.85% · Amy Acton 46.67%

Field dates
Jun 15–Jun 28, 2026
Sample
601 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Paxton +0.1

Don't know 5.85% · Someone else 0.91% · Ken Paxton 46.67% · James Talarico 46.57%

Field dates
Jun 19–Jun 27, 2026
Sample
656 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Abbott +6.4

Don't know 4.65% · Someone else 0.48% · Greg Abbott 50.64% · Gina Hinojosa 44.23%

Field dates
Jun 19–Jun 27, 2026
Sample
656 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Cooper +6.8

Don't know 6.44% · Someone else 0.41% · Michael Whatley 43.19% · Roy Cooper 50%

Field dates
Jun 15–Jun 27, 2026
Sample
601 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Hinson +2.5

Don't know 5.2% · Someone else 0.32% · Ashley Hinson 48.48% · Josh Turek 46.01%

Field dates
Jun 15–Jun 27, 2026
Sample
600 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Sand +1.6

Don't know 5.12% · Someone else 0.15% · Zach Lahn 46.54% · Rob Sand 48.19%

Field dates
Jun 15–Jun 27, 2026
Sample
600 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Pingree +13.3

Don't know 5.49% · Someone else 0.44% · Rick Bennett 8.06% · Bobby Charles 36.38% · Hannah Pingree 49.63%

Field dates
Jun 19–Jun 26, 2026
Sample
608 LV
Sponsor / client
Portland Press Herald
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

50 shown · 101 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
20182018_House-G_IL-14House-G2018-11-02428D+5.2D+5.0D+0.2
20182018_House-G_IA-4House-G2018-11-02423R+4.8R+3.3R+1.4
20182018_House-G_TX-32House-G2018-11-01477D+4.0D+6.5R+2.5
20182018_House-G_GA-6House-G2018-11-01421D+2.1D+1.0D+1.1
20182018_House-G_CA-48House-G2018-11-01491D+1.7D+7.1R+5.4
20182018_House-G_NJ-7House-G2018-10-30503D+7.9D+5.0D+2.9
20182018_House-G_IA-1House-G2018-10-30452D+6.5D+5.1D+1.4
20182018_House-G_KS-2House-G2018-10-29501D+4.5R+0.8D+5.3
20182018_House-G_CA-45House-G2018-10-29499D+1.3D+4.1R+2.8
20182018_House-G_PA-1House-G2018-10-28502R+1.3R+2.5D+1.2
20182018_House-G_NY-27House-G2018-10-27501R+4.4R+0.4R+4.0
20182018_House-G_CA-25House-G2018-10-27504R+4.4D+8.7R+13.2
20182018_House-G_IA-3House-G2018-10-26504D+2.2D+2.2R+0.0
20182018_Sen-G_FLSen-G2018-10-25737D+3.5R+0.1D+3.6
20182018_House-G_UT-4House-G2018-10-25526D+0.3D+0.3D+0.1
20182018_House-G_PA-10House-G2018-10-25498R+1.6R+2.6D+1.1
20182018_House-G_NY-11House-G2018-10-25495R+3.3D+6.5R+9.8
20182018_Gov-G_FLGov-G2018-10-25737D+4.4R+0.4D+4.8
20182018_House-G_NJ-3House-G2018-10-23508R+0.6D+1.3R+1.9
20182018_House-G_IL-6House-G2018-10-23497D+1.2D+7.2R+5.9
20182018_House-G_IL-13House-G2018-10-23501R+5.1R+0.8R+4.3
20182018_House-G_CA-10House-G2018-10-23501D+2.4D+4.5R+2.1
20182018_House-G_TX-7House-G2018-10-22499R+0.9D+5.1R+5.9
20182018_House-G_OH-1House-G2018-10-22492R+8.7R+4.4R+4.3
20182018_House-G_FL-26House-G2018-10-22499D+0.9D+1.8R+0.9
20182018_House-G_CA-49House-G2018-10-22500D+14.7D+12.8D+1.9
20182018_House-G_NM-2House-G2018-10-21522R+0.1D+1.9R+1.9
20182018_House-G_CA-39House-G2018-10-21496D+1.0D+3.1R+2.1
20182018_House-G_VA-2House-G2018-10-20508R+2.8D+2.2R+5.0
20182018_House-G_IL-12House-G2018-10-20502R+8.5R+6.2R+2.3
20182018_House-G_VA-5House-G2018-10-19501D+1.0R+6.5D+7.6
20182018_House-G_PA-8House-G2018-10-18506D+12.6D+9.3D+3.3
20182018_House-G_FL-15House-G2018-10-18499R+0.7R+6.0D+5.4
20182018_Sen-G_AZSen-G2018-10-17606R+1.8D+2.3R+4.1
20182018_House-G_WA-3House-G2018-10-17497R+7.0R+5.3R+1.6
20182018_House-G_ME-2House-G2018-10-17501D+0.1D+1.3R+1.1
20182018_House-G_FL-27House-G2018-10-17542D+7.2D+6.0D+1.2
20182018_House-G_WV-3House-G2018-10-16490R+4.6R+12.8D+8.1
20182018_House-G_TX-23House-G2018-10-16488R+15.4R+0.4R+15.0
20182018_House-G_KS-3House-G2018-10-16503D+9.0D+9.7R+0.6
20172017_Gov-G_VAGov-G2017-10-31985D+3.0D+8.9R+5.9
20162016_Sen-G_NCSen-G2016-11-05800R+1.0R+5.7D+4.7
20162016_Pres-G_NCPres-G2016-11-058000R+3.7D+3.7
20162016_Gov-G_NCGov-G2016-11-05800D+1.0D+0.2D+0.8
20162016_Sen-G_FLSen-G2016-10-26815R+9.0R+7.7R+1.3
20162016_Pres-G_FLPres-G2016-10-26815R+3.5R+1.2R+2.3
20162016_Sen-G_PASen-G2016-10-24824D+3.0R+1.4D+4.4
20162016_Pres-G_PAPres-G2016-10-24824D+7.0R+0.7D+7.7
20162016_Sen-G_NCSen-G2016-10-22792D+1.0R+5.7D+6.7
20162016_Pres-G_NCPres-G2016-10-22792D+7.5R+3.7D+11.2

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.