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Joint polling team

The New York Times/Siena College

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
101
Mean absolute error
3.98percentage points
Historical bias
D+1.22
Represented cycles
62016–2024
Current archive
52canonical records
History span
Oct 22, 2016through Nov 2, 2024
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
New York Times/Siena College · New York Times/Siena University · The New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena University · The New York Times/Siena College/The Philadelphia Inquirer · The New York Times/Siena University · The New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University
Participating organizations
The New York Times · Siena College
Cycles represented
2016 · 2017 · 2018 · 2020 · 2022 · 2024

101 eligible historical polls across 6 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-10-24. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 52 total

Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +10.5

Dem 51.73% · Rep 41.22%

Field dates
Oct 12–Oct 19, 2026
Sample
3,494 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +11.5

Dem 50.86% · Rep 39.32%

Field dates
Oct 12–Oct 19, 2026
Sample
3,494 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +6.8

Dem 49.01% · Rep 42.18%

Field dates
Sep 8–Sep 13, 2026
Sample
1,503 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +8.5

Dem 51.28% · Rep 42.76%

Field dates
Sep 8–Sep 13, 2026
Sample
1,503 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Kreiss-Tomkins +20.2

Don't know 13.25% · Someone else 0.37% · Bernadette Wilson 20.07% · Treg Taylor 11.2% · Dave Bronson 14.87% · Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 40.24%

Field dates
Sep 24–Oct 1, 2026
Sample
504 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Sand +11.2

Don't know 7.12% · Zach Lahn 40.85% · Rob Sand 52.03%

Field dates
Sep 22–Oct 1, 2026
Sample
606 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Acton +3.9

Don't know 6.01% · Vivek Ramaswamy 45.02% · Amy Acton 48.97%

Field dates
Sep 22–Oct 1, 2026
Sample
616 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Masterson +4.1

Don't know 6.74% · Someone else 0.36% · Ty Masterson 48.52% · Cindy Holscher 44.38%

Field dates
Sep 22–Sep 30, 2026
Sample
605 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

50 shown · 101 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
2024WI · PresidentPres-G2024-11-02—D+2.5R+0.9D+3.4
2024PA · PresidentPres-G2024-11-02—R+0.5R+1.7D+1.2
2024NV · PresidentPres-G2024-11-02—D+2.5R+3.1D+5.6
2024NC · PresidentPres-G2024-11-02—D+4.0R+3.2D+7.2
2024MI · PresidentPres-G2024-11-02—R+1.0R+1.4D+0.4
2024GA · PresidentPres-G2024-11-02—D+0.5R+2.2D+2.7
2024AZ · PresidentPres-G2024-11-02—R+4.5R+5.5D+1.0
2022GA · SenateSen-G2022-10-26604D+3.0D+1.0D+2.0
2022GA · GovernorGov-G2022-10-26604R+5.0R+7.5D+2.5
2022PA · SenateSen-G2022-10-25620D+5.0D+4.9D+0.1
2022AZ · SenateSen-G2022-10-25604D+6.0D+4.9D+1.1
2022PA · GovernorGov-G2022-10-25620D+13.0D+14.8R+1.8
2022AZ · GovernorGov-G2022-10-256040D+0.7R+0.7
2022NV · SenateSen-G2022-10-228850D+0.8R+0.8
2022NM-2 · HouseHouse-G2022-10-22398D+1.0D+0.7D+0.3
2022KS-3 · HouseHouse-G2022-10-22431D+14.0D+12.2D+1.8
2022NV · GovernorGov-G2022-10-22885R+4.0R+1.5R+2.5
2022PA-8 · HouseHouse-G2022-10-20415D+6.0D+2.5D+3.5
2022NV-1 · HouseHouse-G2022-10-203990D+5.6R+5.6
2020PA · PresidentPres-G2020-10-291,862D+6.0D+1.2D+4.8
2020FL · PresidentPres-G2020-10-291,451D+3.0R+3.4D+6.4
2020AZ · SenateSen-G2020-10-281,252D+7.0D+2.4D+4.7
2020WI · PresidentPres-G2020-10-281,253D+11.0D+0.6D+10.4
2020AZ · PresidentPres-G2020-10-281,252D+6.0D+0.3D+5.7
2020NC · SenateSen-G2020-10-251,034D+3.0R+1.8D+4.8
2020MI · SenateSen-G2020-10-25856D+8.0D+1.7D+6.3
2020NV · PresidentPres-G2020-10-25809D+6.0D+2.4D+3.6
2020NC · PresidentPres-G2020-10-251,034D+3.0R+1.4D+4.3
2020MI · PresidentPres-G2020-10-25856D+8.0D+2.8D+5.2
2020NC · GovernorGov-G2020-10-251,034D+9.0D+4.5D+4.5
2020TX · SenateSen-G2020-10-23802R+10.0R+9.6R+0.4
2020TX · PresidentPres-G2020-10-23802R+4.0R+5.6D+1.6
2020MT · SenateSen-G2020-10-19758R+3.0R+10.0D+7.0
2020KS · SenateSen-G2020-10-19755R+4.0R+11.4D+7.4
2020IA · SenateSen-G2020-10-19753R+1.0R+6.6D+5.6
2020MT · PresidentPres-G2020-10-19758R+6.0R+16.4D+10.4
2020KS · PresidentPres-G2020-10-19755R+7.0R+14.7D+7.7
2020IA · PresidentPres-G2020-10-19753D+3.0R+8.2D+11.2
2020MT-1 · HouseHouse-G2020-10-19758R+4.0R+12.8D+8.8
2020MT · GovernorGov-G2020-10-19758R+4.0R+12.9D+8.9
2020national · PresidentPres-G2020-10-17987D+9.0D+4.5D+4.5
2020GA · SenateSen-G2020-10-16759D+9.0D+7.0D+2.0
2020GA · SenateSen-G2020-10-167590R+1.8D+1.8
2020GA · PresidentPres-G2020-10-167590D+0.2R+0.2
2018NY-22 · HouseHouse-G2018-11-03506R+0.9D+1.8R+2.7
2018NY-19 · HouseHouse-G2018-11-03505D+1.7D+5.2R+3.5
2018KY-6 · HouseHouse-G2018-11-03438R+0.4R+3.2D+2.8
2018WA-8 · HouseHouse-G2018-11-02477D+2.8D+4.8R+2.0
2018VA-7 · HouseHouse-G2018-11-02500R+1.8D+1.9R+3.8
2018MI-8 · HouseHouse-G2018-11-02447D+6.6D+3.8D+2.8

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.