Bruce Blakeman 45.9% · Kathy Hochul 50.3%
- Field dates
- Oct 12–Oct 14, 2026
- Sample
- 1,000 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Pollster file
OnMessage Inc.
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 18
- Mean absolute error
- 4.77percentage points
- Historical bias
- R+2.08
- Represented cycles
- 72003–2024
- Current archive
- 8canonical records
- History span
- Nov 11, 2003through Oct 31, 2024
Identity
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- OnMessage Inc. (R) · OnMessage Inc.(R)
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2003 · 2008 · 2010 · 2012 · 2013 · 2018 · 2024
18 eligible historical polls across 7 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Canonical 2025–2026 archive
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-10-24. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
8 shown · 8 total
Race
Brown +2Ohio · Senate
Don't know 8% · Jon Husted 45% · Sherrod Brown 47%
- Field dates
- Mar 3–Mar 8, 2026
- Sample
- 600 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Insurance Watchdog Coalition
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Don't know 8% · Ned Lamont 50% · Erin Stewart 42%
- Field dates
- Aug 11–Aug 14, 2025
- Sample
- 600 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Primary · R primary
Blackburn +4Tennessee · Governor
Marsha Blackburn 35% · John Rose 31% · Monty Fritts 26%
- Field dates
- Jul 25, 2026
- Sample
- 800 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Primary · R primary
James +25Michigan · Governor
John James 46% · Perry Johnson 21%
- Field dates
- Jun 30, 2026
- Sample
- 800 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Primary · R primary
James +23Michigan · Governor
John James 41% · Perry Johnson 18% · Aric Nesbitt 5%
- Field dates
- Apr 18, 2026
- Sample
- 400 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Primary · R primary
James +18Michigan · Governor
John James 37% · Perry Johnson 19% · Tom Leonard 1% · Aric Nesbitt 4%
- Field dates
- Mar 19, 2026
- Sample
- 509 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Primary · R primary
James +40Michigan · Governor
John James 46% · Tom Leonard 1% · Aric Nesbitt 6%
- Field dates
- Jan 19, 2025
- Sample
- 1,000 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Certified-result history
Eligible historical observations
18 shown · 18 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | WI · President | Pres-G | 2024-10-31 | — | R+1.0 | R+0.9 | R+0.1 |
| 2024 | PA · President | Pres-G | 2024-10-31 | — | R+2.0 | R+1.7 | R+0.3 |
| 2024 | MI · President | Pres-G | 2024-10-31 | — | 0 | R+1.4 | D+1.4 |
| 2024 | AZ · President | Pres-G | 2024-10-31 | — | R+3.0 | R+5.5 | D+2.5 |
| 2024 | WI · President | Pres-G | 2024-10-22 | — | R+1.0 | R+0.9 | R+0.1 |
| 2024 | NV · President | Pres-G | 2024-10-22 | — | R+3.0 | R+3.1 | D+0.1 |
| 2018 | MO · Senate | Sen-G | 2018-10-17 | 800 | R+7.0 | R+5.8 | R+1.2 |
| 2018 | FL · Senate | Sen-G | 2018-10-16 | 2,200 | R+5.0 | R+0.1 | R+4.9 |
| 2018 | FL · Governor | Gov-G | 2018-10-16 | 2,200 | R+3.0 | R+0.4 | R+2.6 |
| 2013 | MA · Senate | Sen-G | 2013-06-17 | 600 | D+7.0 | D+10.2 | R+3.2 |
| 2012 | RI-1 · House | House-G | 2012-10-25 | 400 | R+6.0 | D+12.1 | R+18.1 |
| 2012 | OH-16 · House | House-G | 2012-10-25 | 400 | R+10.0 | R+4.1 | R+5.9 |
| 2012 | MN-8 · House | House-G | 2012-10-25 | 400 | R+10.0 | D+8.9 | R+18.9 |
| 2010 | TX-23 · House | House-G | 2010-10-20 | 400 | R+6.0 | R+5.0 | R+1.1 |
| 2010 | AR-2 · House | House-G | 2010-10-14 | 400 | R+12.0 | R+19.6 | D+7.6 |
| 2008 | LA · Senate | Sen-G | 2008-10-28 | 500 | D+1.0 | D+6.4 | R+5.4 |
| 2008 | LA · Senate | Sen-G | 2008-10-15 | 500 | D+5.0 | D+6.4 | R+1.4 |
| 2003 | LA · Governor | Gov-G | 2003-11-11 | 1,000 | R+7.0 | D+3.9 | R+10.9 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.