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Pollster file

Emerson College

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls: 230
Mean absolute error: 4.19percentage points
Historical bias: D+0.37
Represented cycles: 112013–2025
Current archive: 141canonical records
History span: Jun 20, 2013through Oct 31, 2025

Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases: Emerson · Emerson College (D)
Organization type: Single canonical organization
Cycles represented: 2013 · 2014 · 2016 · 2017 · 2018 · 2019 · 2020 · 2021 · 2022 · 2024 · 2025

230 eligible historical polls across 11 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 141 total

Race

Iowa · Senate

Hinson +4.4

Don't know 4.71% · Thomas Laehn 0.76% · Ashley Hinson 49.47% · Josh Turek 45.05%

Field dates: Aug 31–Sep 1, 2026
Sample: 750 LV
Sponsor / client: Nexstar
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Race

Iowa · Governor

Sand +3.1

Don't know 5.84% · Zach Lahn 45.52% · Rob Sand 48.64%

Field dates: Aug 31–Sep 1, 2026
Sample: 750 LV
Sponsor / client: Nexstar
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Primary · D primary

Massachusetts · Senate

Markey +27

Ed Markey 60% · Seth Moulton 33%

Field dates: Aug 29, 2026
Sample: 550 LV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Race

Rhode Island · Governor

McKee +10.4

Don't know 18.48% · Christopher Reynolds 1.8% · Jasjit Gotra 0.98% · Ken Block 25.51% · Generic Republican 17.36% · Daniel McKee 35.87%

Field dates: Aug 21–Aug 22, 2026
Sample: 1,000 LV
Sponsor / client: WPRI-TV
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Race

Rhode Island · Governor

Foulkes +23.5

Don't know 13.66% · Christopher Reynolds 0.96% · Jasjit Gotra 1.31% · Ken Block 21.14% · Generic Republican 18.26% · Helena Foulkes 44.67%

Field dates: Aug 21–Aug 22, 2026
Sample: 1,000 LV
Sponsor / client: WPRI-TV
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Generic ballot

Dem +7.6

Dem 50.65% · Rep 43.04%

Field dates: Aug 16–Aug 17, 2026
Sample: 1,000 LV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Race

Texas · Governor

Abbott +3.5

Don't know 3.95% · Someone else 2.54% · Greg Abbott 48.49% · Gina Hinojosa 45%

Field dates: Aug 9–Aug 10, 2026
Sample: 1,000 LV
Sponsor / client: Nexstar
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Race

Texas · Senate

Paxton +1

Don't know 4.5% · Someone else 2% · Ken Paxton 47.25% · James Talarico 46.25%

Field dates: Aug 9–Aug 10, 2026
Sample: 1,000 LV
Sponsor / client: Nexstar
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Race

Iowa · Senate

Hinson +2.5

Someone else 1.42% · Don't know 6.07% · Josh Turek 44.98% · Ashley Hinson 47.52%

Field dates: Aug 2–Aug 4, 2026
Sample: 712 LV
Sponsor / client: Nexstar
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Race

Iowa · Governor

Sand +5.7

Don't know 6.49% · Someone else 2.44% · Zach Lahn 42.69% · Rob Sand 48.4%

Field dates: Aug 2–Aug 4, 2026
Sample: 712 LV
Sponsor / client: Nexstar
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Primary · R primary

Michigan · Governor

James +8

John James 40% · Perry Johnson 32% · Aric Nesbitt 3%

Field dates: Jul 27, 2026
Sample: 350 LV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Primary · D primary

Michigan · Senate

El-Sayed +15

Abdul El-Sayed 54% · Haley Stevens 39%

Field dates: Jul 27, 2026
Sample: 700 LV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →

Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

50 shown · 230 total

Cycle	Race	Type	Field end	Sample	Poll	Result	Error
2018	2018_Gov-G_OR	Gov-G	2018-10-27	747	D+5.1	D+6.4	R+1.3
2018	2018_Gov-G_OH	Gov-G	2018-10-27	566	D+3.5	R+3.7	D+7.2
2018	2018_Gov-G_KS	Gov-G	2018-10-27	976	R+1.3	D+5.1	R+6.4
2018	2018_Sen-G_NM	Sen-G	2018-10-25	936	D+16.5	D+23.6	R+7.1
2018	2018_Sen-G_NJ	Sen-G	2018-10-25	659	D+5.3	D+11.2	R+5.9
2018	2018_Sen-G_MI	Sen-G	2018-10-25	822	D+9.4	D+6.5	D+2.9
2018	2018_House-G_NM-3	House-G	2018-10-25	331	D+17.0	D+32.2	R+15.2
2018	2018_House-G_NM-2	House-G	2018-10-25	278	D+0.4	D+1.9	R+1.5
2018	2018_House-G_NM-1	House-G	2018-10-25	327	D+10.0	D+22.8	R+12.8
2018	2018_Gov-G_NM	Gov-G	2018-10-25	936	D+9.0	D+14.4	R+5.4
2018	2018_Gov-G_MI	Gov-G	2018-10-25	822	D+10.4	D+9.6	D+0.8
2018	2018_Gov-G_CA	Gov-G	2018-10-18	671	D+19.9	D+23.9	R+4.0
2018	2018_House-GS_OH-12	House-G	2018-08-03	431	D+1.0	R+0.8	D+1.8
2018	2018_House-GS_AZ-8	House-G	2018-04-21	400	R+6.0	R+4.7	R+1.3
2018	2018_House-GS_AZ-8	House-G	2018-04-14	400	D+1.0	R+4.7	D+5.7
2018	2018_House-GS_PA-18	House-G	2018-03-02	474	D+3.0	D+0.3	D+2.7
2017	2017_Sen-GS_AL	Sen-G	2017-12-08	600	R+9.0	D+1.6	R+10.7
2017	2017_Sen-GS_AL	Sen-G	2017-12-01	500	R+3.0	D+1.6	R+4.7
2017	2017_Sen-GS_AL	Sen-G	2017-11-26	500	R+6.0	D+1.6	R+7.7
2017	2017_Gov-G_VA	Gov-G	2017-11-03	810	D+3.0	D+8.9	R+5.9
2017	2017_Gov-G_NJ	Gov-G	2017-10-27	540	D+16.0	D+14.1	D+1.9
2017	2017_House-OS_GA-6	House-G	2017-04-14	324	D+26.0	D+28.4	R+2.4
2016	2016_Sen-GR_LA	Sen-G	2016-11-30	400	R+18.0	R+21.3	D+3.3
2016	2016_Sen-G_OH	Sen-G	2016-11-05	900	R+20.5	R+20.9	D+0.4
2016	2016_Sen-G_NV	Sen-G	2016-11-05	600	D+1.1	D+2.5	R+1.4
2016	2016_Sen-G_NH	Sen-G	2016-11-05	1,000	R+3.2	D+0.1	R+3.3
2016	2016_Sen-G_MO	Sen-G	2016-11-05	750	D+0.7	R+2.8	D+3.5
2016	2016_Pres-G_OH	Pres-G	2016-11-05	900	R+6.7	R+8.1	D+1.4
2016	2016_Pres-G_NV	Pres-G	2016-11-05	600	D+1.2	D+2.5	R+1.3
2016	2016_Pres-G_NH	Pres-G	2016-11-05	1,000	D+1.6	D+0.4	D+1.2
2016	2016_Pres-G_MO	Pres-G	2016-11-05	750	R+6.0	R+18.6	D+12.6
2016	2016_Sen-G_IA	Sen-G	2016-11-02	700	R+28.0	R+24.5	R+3.5
2016	2016_Pres-G_IA	Pres-G	2016-11-02	700	R+2.7	R+9.5	D+6.8
2016	2016_Pres-G_UT	Pres-G	2016-11-01	1,000	R+20.2	R+18.1	R+2.1
2016	2016_Pres-G_TX	Pres-G	2016-11-01	700	R+14.7	R+9.0	R+5.7
2016	2016_Sen-G_MO	Sen-G	2016-10-30	650	0	R+2.8	D+2.8
2016	2016_Sen-G_GA	Sen-G	2016-10-30	650	R+8.0	R+13.8	D+5.8
2016	2016_Sen-G_CO	Sen-G	2016-10-30	750	D+5.0	D+5.7	R+0.7
2016	2016_Sen-G_AZ	Sen-G	2016-10-30	700	R+6.0	R+13.0	D+7.0
2016	2016_Pres-G_MO	Pres-G	2016-10-30	650	R+15.0	R+18.6	D+3.6
2016	2016_Pres-G_GA	Pres-G	2016-10-30	650	R+9.0	R+5.1	R+3.9
2016	2016_Pres-G_CO	Pres-G	2016-10-30	750	D+3.0	D+4.9	R+1.9
2016	2016_Pres-G_AZ	Pres-G	2016-10-30	700	R+4.0	R+3.5	R+0.5
2016	2016_Sen-G_IL	Sen-G	2016-10-29	500	D+17.5	D+15.1	D+2.4
2016	2016_Pres-G_VA	Pres-G	2016-10-29	800	D+4.0	D+5.4	R+1.4
2016	2016_Pres-G_ME	Pres-G	2016-10-29	750	D+4.0	D+3.0	D+1.0
2016	2016_Pres-G_M2	Pres-G	2016-10-29	375	D+1.4	R+10.3	D+11.7
2016	2016_Pres-G_M1	Pres-G	2016-10-29	375	D+6.3	D+14.8	R+8.5
2016	2016_Pres-G_IL	Pres-G	2016-10-29	500	D+12.0	D+17.1	R+5.1
2016	2016_Sen-G_WI	Sen-G	2016-10-28	400	D+5.0	R+3.4	D+8.4

5 further rows are held in this pollster’s history shard as within-party or nonpartisan contests (NYC-G · Prim). Those carry no D/R orientation, so they are excluded from the error, bias and coverage figures above and from the table.

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.