Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
101 eligible historical polls across 3 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
12 shown · 73 total
Jay Collins 14% · Byron Donalds 37% · James Fishback 12% · Paul Renner 2%
Dayna Marie Foster 11% · David Jolly 42%
Angie Nixon 24% · Alex Vindman 34%
Dem 43% · Rep 38%
Ethan Corson 10% · Cindy Holscher 37% · Curt Skoog 7%
Christy Davis 10% · Adam Hamilton 18% · Patrick Schmidt 7% · Noah Taylor 3%
Would not vote 3% · Don't know 9% · Alexander Vindman 42% · Ashley Moody 46%
Alexander Vindman 46% · Ashley Moody 46%
Ned Lamont 58% · Josh Elliott 20%
Would not vote 6% · Don't know 11% · David Jolly 41% · Byron Donalds 43%
Jerry Demings 27% · David Jolly 42%
Would not vote 3% · Don't know 10% · Alexander Vindman 41% · Ashley Moody 46%
1 shown · 101 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 2017_House-GS_MT-1 | House-G | 2017-05-22 | 1,888 | R+5.0 | R+5.6 | D+0.6 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.