Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
101 eligible historical polls across 3 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
12 shown · 73 total
Jay Collins 14% · Byron Donalds 37% · James Fishback 12% · Paul Renner 2%
Dayna Marie Foster 11% · David Jolly 42%
Angie Nixon 24% · Alex Vindman 34%
Dem 43% · Rep 38%
Ethan Corson 10% · Cindy Holscher 37% · Curt Skoog 7%
Christy Davis 10% · Adam Hamilton 18% · Patrick Schmidt 7% · Noah Taylor 3%
Would not vote 3% · Don't know 9% · Alexander Vindman 42% · Ashley Moody 46%
Alexander Vindman 46% · Ashley Moody 46%
Ned Lamont 58% · Josh Elliott 20%
Would not vote 6% · Don't know 11% · David Jolly 41% · Byron Donalds 43%
Jerry Demings 27% · David Jolly 42%
Would not vote 3% · Don't know 10% · Alexander Vindman 41% · Ashley Moody 46%
50 shown · 101 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_MT | Sen-G | 2018-11-03 | 879 | R+3.0 | D+3.5 | R+6.5 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_MS | Sen-G | 2018-11-03 | 1,003 | R+8.0 | R+19.0 | D+11.0 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_MN | Sen-G | 2018-11-03 | 953 | D+15.0 | D+24.1 | R+9.1 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_MI | Sen-G | 2018-11-03 | 880 | D+2.0 | D+6.5 | R+4.5 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-GS_MN | Sen-G | 2018-11-03 | 953 | D+9.0 | D+10.6 | R+1.6 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_WY-1 | House-G | 2018-11-03 | 858 | R+27.0 | R+33.9 | D+6.9 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_VA-2 | House-G | 2018-11-03 | 710 | 0 | D+2.2 | R+2.2 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_SD-1 | House-G | 2018-11-03 | 851 | R+10.0 | R+24.3 | D+14.3 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_OH-4 | House-G | 2018-11-03 | 350 | R+24.0 | R+30.5 | D+6.5 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_OH-1 | House-G | 2018-11-03 | 457 | R+3.0 | R+4.4 | D+1.4 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_NC-13 | House-G | 2018-11-03 | 567 | 0 | R+6.0 | D+6.0 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_MT-1 | House-G | 2018-11-03 | 879 | R+8.0 | R+4.6 | R+3.4 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_MI-8 | House-G | 2018-11-03 | 501 | D+1.0 | D+3.8 | R+2.8 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_MI-6 | House-G | 2018-11-03 | 460 | D+2.0 | R+4.5 | D+6.5 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_GA-6 | House-G | 2018-11-03 | 395 | D+6.0 | D+1.0 | D+5.0 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_WY | Gov-G | 2018-11-03 | 858 | R+34.0 | R+39.8 | D+5.8 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_SD | Gov-G | 2018-11-03 | 851 | D+6.0 | R+3.4 | D+9.4 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_PA | Gov-G | 2018-11-03 | 1,833 | D+11.0 | D+17.1 | R+6.1 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_OH | Gov-G | 2018-11-03 | 923 | D+5.0 | R+3.7 | D+8.7 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_MN | Gov-G | 2018-11-03 | 953 | D+12.0 | D+11.4 | D+0.6 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_MI | Gov-G | 2018-11-03 | 880 | D+8.0 | D+9.6 | R+1.6 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_ID | Gov-G | 2018-11-03 | 838 | R+16.0 | R+21.6 | D+5.6 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_IA | Gov-G | 2018-11-03 | 961 | D+3.0 | R+2.7 | D+5.7 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_CA | Gov-G | 2018-11-03 | 1,108 | D+12.0 | D+23.9 | R+11.9 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_TX | Sen-G | 2018-11-02 | 1,211 | 0 | R+2.6 | D+2.6 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_FL | Sen-G | 2018-11-02 | 1,236 | D+2.0 | R+0.1 | D+2.1 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_WI-6 | House-G | 2018-10-28 | 525 | R+2.0 | R+11.0 | D+9.0 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_OH-2 | House-G | 2018-10-28 | 431 | R+13.0 | R+16.4 | D+3.4 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_NY-1 | House-G | 2018-10-28 | 838 | R+15.0 | R+4.1 | R+10.9 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_MI-6 | House-G | 2018-10-28 | 466 | R+3.0 | R+4.5 | D+1.6 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_MI-1 | House-G | 2018-10-28 | 574 | R+12.0 | R+12.6 | D+0.6 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_KS-2 | House-G | 2018-10-28 | 902 | R+1.0 | R+0.8 | R+0.1 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_IN-9 | House-G | 2018-10-28 | 541 | R+7.0 | R+13.0 | D+6.0 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_IN-5 | House-G | 2018-10-28 | 527 | R+6.0 | R+13.5 | D+7.5 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_IL-16 | House-G | 2018-10-28 | 554 | R+14.0 | R+18.3 | D+4.3 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_IA-4 | House-G | 2018-10-28 | 631 | R+1.0 | R+3.3 | D+2.3 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_FL-18 | House-G | 2018-10-28 | 475 | R+9.0 | R+8.6 | R+0.4 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_CO-3 | House-G | 2018-10-28 | 485 | R+15.0 | R+8.0 | R+7.0 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_NH | Gov-G | 2018-10-28 | 901 | R+1.0 | R+7.0 | D+6.0 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_OH-7 | House-G | 2018-10-26 | 682 | R+6.0 | R+17.5 | D+11.5 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_NE-1 | House-G | 2018-10-25 | 742 | R+16.0 | R+20.7 | D+4.7 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_NY-23 | House-G | 2018-10-24 | 510 | R+2.0 | R+8.5 | D+6.5 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_WI-1 | House-G | 2018-10-20 | 551 | D+1.0 | R+12.3 | D+13.3 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_CA-22 | House-G | 2018-10-20 | 840 | R+5.0 | R+5.4 | D+0.4 |
| 2017 | 2017_Sen-GS_AL | Sen-G | 2017-12-10 | 1,556 | R+6.0 | D+1.6 | R+7.7 |
| 2017 | 2017_Sen-GS_AL | Sen-G | 2017-12-06 | 2,443 | R+7.0 | D+1.6 | R+8.7 |
| 2017 | 2017_Sen-GS_AL | Sen-G | 2017-11-27 | 1,868 | R+5.0 | D+1.6 | R+6.7 |
| 2017 | 2017_Gov-G_VA | Gov-G | 2017-11-03 | 3,648 | D+6.0 | D+8.9 | R+2.9 |
| 2017 | 2017_Gov-G_NJ | Gov-G | 2017-11-03 | 2,040 | D+16.0 | D+14.1 | D+1.9 |
| 2017 | 2017_House-GS_SC-5 | House-G | 2017-06-16 | 1,001 | R+9.0 | R+3.1 | R+5.9 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.