The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 19
- Mean absolute error
- 2.97percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+0.71
- Represented cycles
- 72016–2025
- Current archive
- 0canonical records
- History span
- Oct 29, 2016through Oct 20, 2025
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- The Washington Post · The Washington Post/Schar School
- Participating organizations
- The Washington Post · George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government
- Cycles represented
- 2016 · 2017 · 2018 · 2020 · 2021 · 2024 · 2025
19 eligible historical polls across 7 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
0 shown · 0 total
No record in the currently authorized canonical archive is attached to this identity.
This is not evidence that the pollster released no 2026 polling; the source-audit gaps remain documented.
Eligible historical observations
19 shown · 19 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | VA · Governor | Gov-G | 2025-10-20 | — | D+12.0 | D+15.4 | R+3.4 |
| 2025 | VA · Attorney general | AG-G | 2025-10-20 | — | 0 | D+6.7 | R+6.7 |
| 2024 | PA · President | Pres-G | 2024-10-30 | — | D+1.0 | R+1.7 | D+2.7 |
| 2024 | MI · President | Pres-G | 2024-10-28 | — | R+2.0 | R+1.4 | R+0.6 |
| 2024 | WI · President | Pres-G | 2024-10-15 | — | D+4.0 | R+0.9 | D+4.9 |
| 2024 | PA · President | Pres-G | 2024-10-15 | — | D+3.0 | R+1.7 | D+4.7 |
| 2024 | NV · President | Pres-G | 2024-10-15 | — | D+3.0 | R+3.1 | D+6.1 |
| 2024 | NC · President | Pres-G | 2024-10-15 | — | R+4.0 | R+3.2 | R+0.8 |
| 2024 | MI · President | Pres-G | 2024-10-15 | — | R+1.0 | R+1.4 | D+0.4 |
| 2024 | GA · President | Pres-G | 2024-10-15 | — | D+6.0 | R+2.2 | D+8.2 |
| 2024 | AZ · President | Pres-G | 2024-10-15 | — | R+6.0 | R+5.5 | R+0.5 |
| 2021 | 2021_Gov-G_VA | Gov-G | 2021-10-23 | 918 | D+1.0 | R+1.9 | D+2.9 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-G_VA | Sen-G | 2020-10-16 | 908 | D+18.0 | D+12.1 | D+5.9 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_VA | Pres-G | 2020-10-16 | 908 | D+11.0 | D+10.2 | D+0.8 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_VA-10 | House-G | 2018-10-27 | 446 | D+11.0 | D+12.4 | R+1.4 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_VA-10 | House-G | 2018-10-18 | 430 | D+13.0 | D+12.4 | D+0.6 |
| 2017 | 2017_Sen-GS_AL | Sen-G | 2017-11-29 | 739 | D+3.0 | D+1.6 | D+1.4 |
| 2017 | 2017_Gov-G_VA | Gov-G | 2017-10-28 | 921 | D+5.0 | D+8.9 | R+3.9 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_VA | Pres-G | 2016-10-29 | 1,024 | D+6.0 | D+5.4 | D+0.6 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.