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Pollster file

The Tyson Group

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
12
Mean absolute error
3.25percentage points
Historical bias
D+0.23
Represented cycles
42004–2016
Current archive
11canonical records
History span
Oct 19, 2004through Oct 19, 2016
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
The Tyson Group (R)
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2004 · 2008 · 2010 · 2016

12 eligible historical polls across 4 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

11 shown · 11 total

Primary · R primary

Florida · Governor

Donalds +39

Jay Collins 9% · Byron Donalds 48% · James Fishback 8% · Paul Renner 4%

Field dates
Jul 11, 2026
Sample
600 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Republican-sponsored
Primary · R primary

Florida · Governor

Donalds +29

Jay Collins 9% · Byron Donalds 38% · James Fishback 2% · Paul Renner 1%

Field dates
Dec 9, 2025
Sample
800 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Republican-sponsored
Democrat +4

Generic Democrat 43% · Dan Sullivan 39%

Field dates
Nov 11–Nov 13, 2025
Sample
600 LV
Sponsor / client
Plymouth Union Public Advocacy
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
James +4

Mike Duggan 12% · Generic Democrat 31% · John James 35%

Field dates
Oct 8–Oct 9, 2025
Sample
600 LV
Sponsor / client
Plymouth Union Public Advocacy
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Republican +4

Don't know 18% · Generic Candidate 7% · Generic Democrat 35% · Generic Republican 39%

Field dates
Oct 8–Oct 9, 2025
Sample
600 LV
Sponsor / client
Plymouth Union Public Advocacy
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Democrat +3

Mike Duggan 15% · Generic Democrat 31% · Mike Cox 28%

Field dates
Oct 8–Oct 9, 2025
Sample
600 LV
Sponsor / client
Plymouth Union Public Advocacy
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Moody +7

Don't know 19% · Jennifer Jenkins 37% · Ashley Moody 44%

Field dates
Oct 1–Oct 3, 2025
Sample
800 LV
Sponsor / client
Plymouth Union Public Advocacy
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Ossoff +12

Don't know 9% · Jon Ossoff 51% · Marjorie Taylor Greene 39%

Field dates
Jan 30–Jan 31, 2025
Sample
600 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Ossoff +8

Don't know 13% · Buddy Carter 39% · Jon Ossoff 47%

Field dates
Jan 30–Jan 31, 2025
Sample
600 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Kemp +7

Don't know 8% · Jon Ossoff 42% · Brian Kemp 49%

Field dates
Jan 30–Jan 31, 2025
Sample
600 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +6

Approve 45% · Disapprove 51%

Field dates
Jun 25–Jun 26, 2025
Sample
1,027 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

12 shown · 12 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
20162016_Sen-G_FLSen-G2016-10-191,000R+5.0R+7.7D+2.7
20162016_Pres-G_FLPres-G2016-10-191,000D+3.0R+1.2D+4.2
20102010_Sen-G_NCSen-G2010-10-19600R+10.0R+11.8D+1.8
20082008_Sen-G_NCSen-G2008-10-28600D+2.0D+8.5R+6.5
20082008_Pres-G_NCPres-G2008-10-28600D+1.0D+0.3D+0.7
20082008_Gov-G_NCGov-G2008-10-28600D+2.0D+3.4R+1.4
20082008_Sen-G_NCSen-G2008-10-19600D+3.0D+8.5R+5.5
20082008_Pres-G_NCPres-G2008-10-19600D+3.0D+0.3D+2.7
20082008_Gov-G_NCGov-G2008-10-196000D+3.4R+3.4
20042004_Sen-G_NCSen-G2004-10-19600R+1.0R+4.6D+3.6
20042004_Pres-G_NCPres-G2004-10-19600R+8.0R+12.4D+4.4
20042004_Gov-G_NCGov-G2004-10-19600D+15.0D+12.7D+2.3

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.