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Pollster file

Tarrance Group

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
27
Mean absolute error
4.66percentage points
Historical bias
R+1.44
Represented cycles
101998–2020
Current archive
5canonical records
History span
Oct 26, 1998through Oct 25, 2020
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
Tarrance Group (R)
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
1998 · 2000 · 2002 · 2004 · 2008 · 2010 · 2012 · 2014 · 2018 · 2020

27 eligible historical polls across 10 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-10-24. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

5 shown · 5 total

Hobbs +4

Andy Biggs 48% · Katie Hobbs 52%

Field dates
Jul 27–Jul 30, 2026
Sample
600 LV
Sponsor / client
Democracy Defense Project
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Lombardo +7

Aaron Ford 43% · Joe Lombardo 50%

Field dates
Jul 25–Jul 29, 2026
Sample
550 LV
Sponsor / client
Better Nevada PAC | Republican Governors Association
Partisan sponsorship
Republican-sponsored
Primary · R primary

Michigan · Governor

James +12

John James 38% · Perry Johnson 26% · Aric Nesbitt 12%

Field dates
Jun 4, 2026
Sample
500 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Republican-sponsored
Primary · R primary

Florida · Governor

Donalds +41

Jay Collins 6% · Byron Donalds 50% · James Fishback 9% · Paul Renner 3%

Field dates
Apr 2, 2026
Sample
466 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Republican-sponsored
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

27 shown · 27 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
2020MI · SenateSen-G2020-10-25600D+1.3D+1.7R+0.4
2020PA-10 · HouseHouse-G2020-10-14400R+4.0R+6.6D+2.6
2018MI · SenateSen-G2018-10-21605D+7.0D+6.5D+0.5
2014HI · GovernorGov-G2014-10-22800D+3.0D+12.4R+9.4
2014KS-2 · HouseHouse-G2014-10-19400R+12.0R+18.4D+6.4
2014HI · GovernorGov-G2014-10-16800D+2.0D+12.4R+10.4
2014AZ · GovernorGov-G2014-10-15500R+7.0R+11.8D+4.8
2012CA-52 · HouseHouse-G2012-10-17470R+4.0D+2.4R+6.4
2010NM-2 · HouseHouse-G2010-10-20350R+9.0R+10.8D+1.8
2010TN-8 · HouseHouse-G2010-10-19300R+15.0R+20.2D+5.2
2010MS-4 · HouseHouse-G2010-10-19300R+2.0R+5.1D+3.1
2010IA-2 · HouseHouse-G2010-10-19300R+1.0D+5.1R+6.1
2010CA · SenateSen-G2010-10-186000D+10.0R+10.0
2010CA · GovernorGov-G2010-10-186000D+12.9R+12.9
2010TN-8 · HouseHouse-G2010-10-12304R+11.0R+20.2D+9.2
2008IA-4 · HouseHouse-G2008-10-22300R+22.0R+21.1R+0.9
2008FL-16 · HouseHouse-G2008-10-16300R+26.0R+20.2R+5.8
2004WI · SenateSen-G2004-10-26500D+5.0D+11.2R+6.2
2002CO · SenateSen-G2002-11-03400R+6.0R+4.9R+1.1
2002CO-7 · HouseHouse-G2002-10-31300R+2.0R+0.1R+1.9
2002NH-2 · HouseHouse-G2002-10-30300R+15.0R+16.0D+1.0
2002CA · GovernorGov-G2002-10-28500D+3.0D+4.9R+1.9
2002UT-2 · HouseHouse-G2002-10-24300D+1.0D+0.7D+0.3
2002GA-12 · HouseHouse-G2002-10-23402R+15.0R+10.4R+4.6
2000NJ · SenateSen-G2000-11-01500R+4.0D+3.0R+7.0
2000MN · SenateSen-G2000-11-01450D+1.0D+5.5R+4.5
1998FL · GovernorGov-G1998-10-26600R+12.0R+10.6R+1.4

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.