Andy Biggs 48% · Katie Hobbs 52%
- Field dates
- Jul 27–Jul 30, 2026
- Sample
- 600 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Democracy Defense Project
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Pollster file
Tarrance Group
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 27
- Mean absolute error
- 4.66percentage points
- Historical bias
- R+1.44
- Represented cycles
- 101998–2020
- Current archive
- 4canonical records
- History span
- Oct 26, 1998through Oct 25, 2020
Identity
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- Tarrance Group (R)
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 1998 · 2000 · 2002 · 2004 · 2008 · 2010 · 2012 · 2014 · 2018 · 2020
27 eligible historical polls across 10 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Canonical 2025–2026 archive
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
4 shown · 4 total
Aaron Ford 43% · Joe Lombardo 50%
- Field dates
- Jul 25–Jul 29, 2026
- Sample
- 550 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Better Nevada PAC | Republican Governors Association
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Primary · R primary
James +12Michigan · Governor
John James 38% · Perry Johnson 26% · Aric Nesbitt 12%
- Field dates
- Jun 4, 2026
- Sample
- 500 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Primary · R primary
Donalds +41Florida · Governor
Jay Collins 6% · Byron Donalds 50% · James Fishback 9% · Paul Renner 3%
- Field dates
- Apr 2, 2026
- Sample
- 466 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Certified-result history
Eligible historical observations
27 shown · 27 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-G_MI | Sen-G | 2020-10-25 | 600 | D+1.3 | D+1.7 | R+0.4 |
| 2020 | 2020_House-G_PA-10 | House-G | 2020-10-14 | 400 | R+4.0 | R+6.6 | D+2.6 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_MI | Sen-G | 2018-10-21 | 605 | D+7.0 | D+6.5 | D+0.5 |
| 2014 | 2014_Gov-G_HI | Gov-G | 2014-10-22 | 800 | D+3.0 | D+12.4 | R+9.4 |
| 2014 | 2014_House-G_KS-2 | House-G | 2014-10-19 | 400 | R+12.0 | R+18.4 | D+6.4 |
| 2014 | 2014_Gov-G_HI | Gov-G | 2014-10-16 | 800 | D+2.0 | D+12.4 | R+10.4 |
| 2014 | 2014_Gov-G_AZ | Gov-G | 2014-10-15 | 500 | R+7.0 | R+11.8 | D+4.8 |
| 2012 | 2012_House-G_CA-52 | House-G | 2012-10-17 | 470 | R+4.0 | D+2.4 | R+6.4 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_NM-2 | House-G | 2010-10-20 | 350 | R+9.0 | R+10.8 | D+1.8 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_TN-8 | House-G | 2010-10-19 | 300 | R+15.0 | R+20.2 | D+5.2 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_MS-4 | House-G | 2010-10-19 | 300 | R+2.0 | R+5.1 | D+3.1 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_IA-2 | House-G | 2010-10-19 | 300 | R+1.0 | D+5.1 | R+6.1 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_CA | Sen-G | 2010-10-18 | 600 | 0 | D+10.0 | R+10.0 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_CA | Gov-G | 2010-10-18 | 600 | 0 | D+12.9 | R+12.9 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_TN-8 | House-G | 2010-10-12 | 304 | R+11.0 | R+20.2 | D+9.2 |
| 2008 | 2008_House-G_IA-4 | House-G | 2008-10-22 | 300 | R+22.0 | R+21.1 | R+0.9 |
| 2008 | 2008_House-G_FL-16 | House-G | 2008-10-16 | 300 | R+26.0 | R+20.2 | R+5.8 |
| 2004 | 2004_Sen-G_WI | Sen-G | 2004-10-26 | 500 | D+5.0 | D+11.2 | R+6.2 |
| 2002 | 2002_Sen-G_CO | Sen-G | 2002-11-03 | 400 | R+6.0 | R+4.9 | R+1.1 |
| 2002 | 2002_House-G_CO-7 | House-G | 2002-10-31 | 300 | R+2.0 | R+0.1 | R+1.9 |
| 2002 | 2002_House-G_NH-2 | House-G | 2002-10-30 | 300 | R+15.0 | R+16.0 | D+1.0 |
| 2002 | 2002_Gov-G_CA | Gov-G | 2002-10-28 | 500 | D+3.0 | D+4.9 | R+1.9 |
| 2002 | 2002_House-G_UT-2 | House-G | 2002-10-24 | 300 | D+1.0 | D+0.7 | D+0.3 |
| 2002 | 2002_House-G_GA-12 | House-G | 2002-10-23 | 402 | R+15.0 | R+10.4 | R+4.6 |
| 2000 | 2000_Sen-G_NJ | Sen-G | 2000-11-01 | 500 | R+4.0 | D+3.0 | R+7.0 |
| 2000 | 2000_Sen-G_MN | Sen-G | 2000-11-01 | 450 | D+1.0 | D+5.5 | R+4.5 |
| 1998 | 1998_Gov-G_FL | Gov-G | 1998-10-26 | 600 | R+12.0 | R+10.6 | R+1.4 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.