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Pollster file

Public Opinion Strategies

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
78
Mean absolute error
5.37percentage points
Historical bias
R+1.75
Represented cycles
131998–2022
Current archive
12canonical records
History span
Oct 16, 1998through Oct 26, 2022
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
Public Opinion Strategies (R)
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
1998 · 2000 · 2002 · 2004 · 2006 · 2008 · 2010 · 2012 · 2014 · 2016 · 2018 · 2020 · 2022

78 eligible historical polls across 13 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-10-24. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 12 total

Rounds +17

Brian Bengs 37% · Mike Rounds 54%

Field dates
Oct 12–Oct 16, 2026
Sample
500 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Republican-sponsored
Fitzpatrick +9

Bob Harvie 42% · Brian Fitzpatrick 51%

Field dates
Sep 11–Sep 14, 2026
Sample
400 RV
Sponsor / client
NRCC
Partisan sponsorship
Republican-sponsored
Calvert +1

Would not vote 10% · Don't know 19% · Ken Calvert 35% · Young Kim 34%

Field dates
Aug 17–Aug 20, 2026
Sample
400 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Republican-sponsored
Rounds +23

Brian Bengs 33% · Mike Rounds 56%

Field dates
Jul 6–Jul 9, 2026
Sample
500 LV
Sponsor / client
National Republican Senatorial Committee
Partisan sponsorship
Republican-sponsored
Lombardo +9

Aaron Ford 42% · Joe Lombardo 51%

Field dates
Jun 27–Jun 29, 2026
Sample
600 LV
Sponsor / client
Republican Governors Association
Partisan sponsorship
Republican-sponsored
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +3

Dem 44% · Rep 41%

Field dates
Apr 21–Apr 27, 2026
Sample
1,000 RV
Sponsor / client
CoinDesk
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Approve +2

Approve 51% · Disapprove 49%

Field dates
Feb 25–Mar 2, 2025
Sample
1,000 RV
Sponsor / client
Paragon Health Institute
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Rep +2

Dem 44% · Rep 46%

Field dates
Feb 25–Mar 2, 2025
Sample
1,000 RV
Sponsor / client
Paragon Health Institute
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Drazan +4

Tina Kotek 44% · Christine Drazan 48%

Field dates
Jun 22–Jun 24, 2026
Sample
600 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Republican-sponsored
Alme +19

Don't know 7% · Kyle Austin 4% · Seth Bodnar 20% · Alani Bankhead 25% · Kurt Alme 44%

Field dates
Jun 8–Jun 11, 2026
Sample
500 LV
Sponsor / client
The Political Company
Partisan sponsorship
Republican-sponsored
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

50 shown · 78 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
2022national · HouseHouse-G2022-10-261,000D+6.0R+2.7D+8.7
2020NY-24 · HouseHouse-G2020-10-17400R+8.0R+10.2D+2.2
2020CA-39 · HouseHouse-G2020-10-13400R+1.0R+1.2D+0.2
2018CA-45 · HouseHouse-G2018-10-16400R+4.0D+4.1R+8.1
2016IN · SenateSen-G2016-11-02600R+5.0R+9.7D+4.7
2016IN · PresidentPres-G2016-11-02600R+11.0R+19.2D+8.2
2016IN-9 · HouseHouse-G2016-11-02310R+2.0R+13.7D+11.7
2016IN · GovernorGov-G2016-11-026000R+6.0D+6.0
2014NC · SenateSen-G2014-10-276000R+1.6D+1.6
2014KY · SenateSen-G2014-10-26600R+7.0R+15.5D+8.5
2014NY-18 · HouseHouse-G2014-10-244000D+1.9R+1.9
2014SD · SenateSen-G2014-10-19500R+24.0R+20.9R+3.1
2014NY-19 · HouseHouse-G2014-10-15400R+26.0R+29.0D+3.0
2012NM · SenateSen-G2012-10-315000D+5.7R+5.7
2012NM · PresidentPres-G2012-10-31500D+8.0D+10.2R+2.1
2012MN · PresidentPres-G2012-10-31500R+1.0D+7.7R+8.7
2012NY-21 · HouseHouse-G2012-10-25400D+2.0D+2.0D+0.0
2012NY-19 · HouseHouse-G2012-10-25400R+10.0R+5.7R+4.3
2012NE · SenateSen-G2012-10-24600R+16.0R+15.6R+0.5
2012NE · PresidentPres-G2012-10-24600R+18.0R+21.9D+3.9
2012TN-4 · HouseHouse-G2012-10-23400R+13.0R+11.5R+1.5
2012NM · SenateSen-G2012-10-22500R+1.0D+5.7R+6.7
2012NM · PresidentPres-G2012-10-22500D+5.0D+10.2R+5.2
2012MI-3 · HouseHouse-G2012-10-20400R+14.0R+8.4R+5.5
2012OH · SenateSen-G2012-10-17600R+1.0D+6.0R+7.0
2010VA-5 · HouseHouse-G2010-10-30400R+3.0R+3.8D+0.8
2010NM-1 · HouseHouse-G2010-10-25400R+2.0D+3.6R+5.6
2010ND-1 · HouseHouse-G2010-10-25400R+9.0R+9.8D+0.8
2010MN · GovernorGov-G2010-10-255000D+0.4R+0.4
2010NM · GovernorGov-G2010-10-22800R+8.0R+6.7R+1.3
2010RI-1 · HouseHouse-G2010-10-213000D+6.1R+6.1
2010PA-8 · HouseHouse-G2010-10-20400R+10.0R+7.0R+3.0
2010MI-3 · HouseHouse-G2010-10-20400R+19.0R+22.2D+3.2
2010VA-2 · HouseHouse-G2010-10-18400R+5.0R+10.7D+5.7
2010NY-20 · HouseHouse-G2010-10-18400R+2.0R+9.7D+7.7
2010CA-47 · HouseHouse-G2010-10-143000D+13.7R+13.7
2010TN-4 · HouseHouse-G2010-10-13300R+5.0R+18.5D+13.5
2010MA · GovernorGov-G2010-10-12800R+7.0D+6.4R+13.4
2010PA-12 · HouseHouse-G2010-05-05400R+2.0D+7.7R+9.7
2008LA-4 · HouseHouse-G2008-11-18400R+1.0R+0.4R+0.6
2008GA · SenateSen-G2008-10-30600R+9.0R+2.9R+6.1
2008OK · SenateSen-G2008-10-25500R+16.0R+17.5D+1.5
2008PA-3 · HouseHouse-G2008-10-23400R+2.0D+2.5R+4.5
2008CO · SenateSen-G2008-10-22500D+13.0D+10.3D+2.7
2008CO · PresidentPres-G2008-10-22500D+12.0D+8.9D+3.0
2008NH · SenateSen-G2008-10-21525D+3.0D+6.3R+3.3
2008NH · PresidentPres-G2008-10-21525D+4.0D+9.6R+5.6
2008NH · SenateSen-G2008-10-18500D+6.0D+6.3R+0.3
2008NH · PresidentPres-G2008-10-18500D+9.0D+9.6R+0.6
2006NJ · SenateSen-G2006-11-01600D+2.0D+16.0R+14.0

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.