Primary · D primary
Lawrence +2MI-07 · House
Bridget Brink 15% · William Lawrence 17% · Matt Maasdam 8%
- Field dates
- Mar 9, 2026
- Sample
- 500 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Democratic-sponsored
Pollster file
Impact Research
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 21
- Mean absolute error
- 6.04percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+2.02
- Represented cycles
- 82004–2022
- Current archive
- 47canonical records
- History span
- Oct 21, 2004through Oct 25, 2022
Identity
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- Impact Research (D)
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2004 · 2006 · 2008 · 2010 · 2012 · 2018 · 2020 · 2022
21 eligible historical polls across 8 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Canonical 2025–2026 archive
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
12 shown · 47 total
Don't know 11% · Lindsey Graham 47% · Annie Andrews 42%
- Field dates
- Feb 25–Mar 1, 2026
- Sample
- 700 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Democratic-sponsored
Race
Democrat +5HOU-NY-17
Don't know 4% · Neither 1% · Generic Republican 39% · Generic Democrat 44%
- Field dates
- Feb 9–Feb 17, 2026
- Sample
- 500 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Protecting American Consumers Together
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Race
Democrat +7HOU-NY-18
Don't know 2% · Neither 3% · Generic Republican 35% · Generic Democrat 42%
- Field dates
- Feb 9–Feb 17, 2026
- Sample
- 500 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Protecting American Consumers Together
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Race
Cooke +1HOU-WI-03
Don't know 3% · Derrick Van Orden 48% · Rebecca Cooke 49%
- Field dates
- Feb 12–Feb 17, 2026
- Sample
- 500 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Democratic-sponsored
Race
Democrat +5HOU-NY-04
Don't know 2% · Neither 3% · Generic Republican 41% · Generic Democrat 46%
- Field dates
- Feb 9–Feb 17, 2026
- Sample
- 500 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Protecting American Consumers Together
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Primary · D primary
Cooke +43WI-03 · House
Emily Berge 22% · Rebecca Cooke 65%
- Field dates
- Feb 17, 2026
- Sample
- 471 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Democratic-sponsored
Don't know 5% · Mike Duggan 20% · John James 36% · Jocelyn Benson 39%
- Field dates
- Feb 9–Feb 16, 2026
- Sample
- 800 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Democratic-sponsored
Primary · D primary
Stevens +2Michigan · Senate
Abdul El-Sayed 26% · Haley Stevens 28%
- Field dates
- Feb 16, 2026
- Sample
- 800 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Democratic-sponsored
Dan Osborn 47% · Pete Ricketts 48%
- Field dates
- Feb 2–Feb 5, 2026
- Sample
- 600 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Democratic-sponsored
Don't know 7% · Tom Tiffany 44% · Mandela Barnes 50%
- Field dates
- Oct 2–Oct 8, 2025
- Sample
- 500 LV
- Sponsor / client
- The Long Run PAC
- Partisan sponsorship
- Democratic-sponsored
Don't know 5% · Tim Michels 44% · Mandela Barnes 51%
- Field dates
- Oct 2–Oct 8, 2025
- Sample
- 500 LV
- Sponsor / client
- The Long Run PAC
- Partisan sponsorship
- Democratic-sponsored
Certified-result history
Eligible historical observations
21 shown · 21 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2022_House-G_US | House-G | 2022-10-25 | 800 | R+2.0 | R+2.7 | D+0.7 |
| 2020 | 2020_House-G_AR-2 | House-G | 2020-10-19 | 500 | 0 | R+10.7 | D+10.7 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_FL-27 | House-G | 2018-10-27 | 500 | D+10.0 | D+6.0 | D+4.0 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_MI | Gov-G | 2018-10-18 | 906 | D+10.5 | D+9.6 | D+0.9 |
| 2012 | 2012_Sen-G_IN | Sen-G | 2012-10-25 | 446 | D+7.0 | D+5.8 | D+1.2 |
| 2012 | 2012_House-G_IL-13 | House-G | 2012-10-20 | 400 | D+9.0 | R+0.3 | D+9.3 |
| 2012 | 2012_House-G_FL-22 | House-G | 2012-10-20 | 501 | D+10.0 | D+9.3 | D+0.8 |
| 2012 | 2012_Sen-G_AZ | Sen-G | 2012-10-19 | 800 | D+4.0 | R+3.0 | D+7.0 |
| 2012 | 2012_House-G_IL-8 | House-G | 2012-10-17 | 400 | D+15.0 | D+9.5 | D+5.5 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_IL | Sen-G | 2010-10-28 | 400 | D+2.0 | R+1.6 | D+3.6 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_IL | Sen-G | 2010-10-22 | 600 | D+2.0 | R+1.6 | D+3.6 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-O_LA-2 | House-G | 2010-10-21 | 400 | D+17.0 | D+31.1 | R+14.1 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-O_LA | Sen-G | 2010-10-18 | 600 | R+3.0 | R+18.9 | D+15.9 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_IL | Sen-G | 2010-10-15 | 601 | D+5.0 | R+1.6 | D+6.6 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_AR-1 | House-G | 2010-10-12 | 400 | D+2.0 | R+8.3 | D+10.3 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-GS_PA-12 | House-G | 2010-04-28 | 406 | D+2.0 | D+7.7 | R+5.7 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_N2 | Pres-G | 2008-10-14 | 400 | R+4.0 | D+1.2 | R+5.2 |
| 2008 | 2008_House-G_NE-2 | House-G | 2008-10-14 | 400 | R+1.0 | R+3.9 | D+2.9 |
| 2008 | 2008_House-OS_MS-1 | House-G | 2008-04-05 | 500 | R+2.0 | D+3.2 | R+5.2 |
| 2006 | 2006_House-G_FL-22 | House-G | 2006-10-22 | 500 | D+6.0 | D+3.8 | D+2.2 |
| 2004 | 2004_House-G_UT-2 | House-G | 2004-10-21 | 400 | D+23.0 | D+11.5 | D+11.5 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.