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Pollster file

Global Strategy Group

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
26
Mean absolute error
6.29percentage points
Historical bias
D+2.97
Represented cycles
82004–2022
Current archive
47canonical records
History span
Oct 13, 2004through Oct 26, 2022
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
Global Strategy Group (D)
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2004 · 2006 · 2008 · 2010 · 2011 · 2012 · 2014 · 2022

26 eligible historical polls across 8 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 47 total

Race

HOU-CO-05

Crank +1

Don't know 11% · Jeff Crank 45% · Jessica Killin 44%

Field dates
Jul 16–Jul 21, 2026
Sample
450 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Race

HOU-IA-02

James +1

Joe Mitchell 45% · Lindsay James 46%

Field dates
Jul 14–Jul 19, 2026
Sample
Not reported LV
Sponsor / client
House Majority PAC
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Primary · D primary

MA-04 · House

Auchincloss +47

Jake Auchincloss 64% · Jason Poulos 17%

Field dates
Jun 29, 2026
Sample
400 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Turek +2

Ashley Hinson 45% · Don't know 8% · Josh Turek 47%

Field dates
Jun 8–Jun 11, 2026
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Republican +2

Generic Republican 47% · Don't know 8% · Generic Democrat 45%

Field dates
Jun 8–Jun 11, 2026
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Moody +3

Don't know 12% · Ashley Moody 46% · Alexander Vindman 43%

Field dates
May 18–May 21, 2026
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Primary · D primary

CT-01 · House

Bronin +8

Luke Bronin 38% · Ruth Fortune 4% · Jillian Gilchrest 10% · John Larson 30%

Field dates
May 21, 2026
Sample
500 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Lombardo +3

Joe Lombardo 45% · None 5% · Don't know 8% · Aaron Ford 42%

Field dates
May 5–May 11, 2026
Sample
700 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Sand +9

Zach Lahn 41% · Rob Sand 50%

Field dates
Apr 23–Apr 28, 2026
Sample
Not reported LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Primary · D primary

MI-10 · House

Hines +17

Eric Chung 13% · Tim Greimel 7% · Christina Hines 30%

Field dates
Apr 26, 2026
Sample
400 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Race

HOU-PA-01

Fitzpatrick +6

Bob Harvie 42% · Brian Fitzpatrick 48%

Field dates
Mar 19–Mar 22, 2026
Sample
400 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Primary · D primary

Michigan · Senate

El-Sayed +2

Abdul El-Sayed 25% · Haley Stevens 23%

Field dates
Mar 19, 2026
Sample
800 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

26 shown · 26 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
20222022_House-G_NY-22House-G2022-10-26400D+2.0R+1.0D+3.0
20142014_House-G_NY-18House-G2014-10-22401D+6.0D+1.9D+4.1
20142014_House-G_NY-24House-G2014-10-21400D+5.0R+19.2D+24.2
20142014_House-G_HI-1House-G2014-10-21400D+7.0D+3.9D+3.1
20142014_House-G_NY-19House-G2014-10-18401R+10.0R+29.0D+19.0
20122012_Sen-G_INSen-G2012-10-29600D+8.0D+5.8D+2.2
20122012_House-G_NY-21House-G2012-10-22403D+7.0D+2.0D+5.0
20122012_Sen-G_INSen-G2012-10-19603D+2.0D+5.8R+3.8
20112011_House-GS_NY-9House-G2011-08-31400D+8.0R+5.2D+13.2
20112011_House-GS_NY-26House-G2011-05-03400R+1.0D+5.0R+6.0
20102010_Gov-G_IAGov-G2010-10-24600R+6.0R+9.6D+3.6
20102010_Sen-GS_WVSen-G2010-10-19804D+5.0D+10.1R+5.1
20102010_House-G_PA-8House-G2010-10-18400D+2.0R+7.0D+9.1
20102010_House-GS_PA-12House-G2010-04-28400D+8.0D+7.7D+0.3
20082008_House-GS_IL-14House-G2008-02-23402D+4.0D+5.1R+1.1
20062006_House-G_PA-8House-G2006-10-30400D+5.0D+0.6D+4.4
20062006_Gov-G_IAGov-G2006-10-28600D+7.0D+9.7R+2.7
20062006_Gov-G_IAGov-G2006-10-28600D+7.0D+9.7R+2.7
20062006_House-G_NY-20House-G2006-10-17404D+2.0D+6.2R+4.2
20042004_Sen-G_FLSen-G2004-10-25700D+4.0R+1.1D+5.1
20042004_Sen-G_NCSen-G2004-10-20800D+2.0R+4.6D+6.6
20042004_Sen-G_OKSen-G2004-10-19600D+1.0R+11.5D+12.5
20042004_Sen-G_COSen-G2004-10-18600D+6.0D+4.8D+1.2
20042004_Sen-G_AKSen-G2004-10-18600D+4.0R+3.0D+7.0
20042004_Pres-G_WVPres-G2004-10-13600R+2.0R+12.9D+10.9
20042004_Gov-G_WVGov-G2004-10-13600D+33.0D+29.5D+3.5

1 further row is held in this pollster’s history shard as within-party or nonpartisan contests (Prim). Those carry no D/R orientation, so they are excluded from the error, bias and coverage figures above and from the table.

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.