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Pollster file

Global Strategy Group

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
26
Mean absolute error
6.29percentage points
Historical bias
D+2.97
Represented cycles
82004–2022
Current archive
59canonical records
History span
Oct 13, 2004through Oct 26, 2022
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
Global Strategy Group (D)
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2004 · 2006 · 2008 · 2010 · 2011 · 2012 · 2014 · 2022

26 eligible historical polls across 8 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-10-24. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 59 total

Tied

Ty Masterson 47% · Cindy Holscher 47%

Field dates
Oct 18–Oct 21, 2026
Sample
600 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Pillen +1

Rick Beard 5% · Brett Lindstrom 5% · Jim Pillen 40% · Lynne Walz 39%

Field dates
Oct 13–Oct 18, 2026
Sample
800 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Killin +5

Mark G. Elworth 3% · Christopher Mitchell 4% · Jeff Crank 38% · Jessica Killin 43%

Field dates
Oct 14–Oct 18, 2026
Sample
500 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Tied

Generic Republican 44% · Generic Democrat 44%

Field dates
Oct 14–Oct 18, 2026
Sample
500 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Killin +2

Don't know 10% · Jeff Crank 44% · Jessica Killin 46%

Field dates
Oct 14–Oct 18, 2026
Sample
500 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Backemeyer +4

Mike Flood 45% · Chris Backemeyer 49%

Field dates
Aug 31–Sep 3, 2026
Sample
600 LV
Sponsor / client
Fight for Nebraska
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Holscher +3

Ty Masterson 46% · Cindy Holscher 49%

Field dates
Sep 13–Sep 16, 2026
Sample
800 LV
Sponsor / client
Democratic Attorneys General Association
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Hamilton +2

Roger Marshall 47% · Adam Hamilton 49%

Field dates
Sep 13–Sep 16, 2026
Sample
800 LV
Sponsor / client
Democratic Attorneys General Association
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Hamilton +4

David Graham 5% · Roger Marshall 43% · Adam Hamilton 47%

Field dates
Sep 13–Sep 16, 2026
Sample
800 LV
Sponsor / client
Democratic Attorneys General Association
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Backemeyer +1

Don't know 7% · Someone else 7% · Mike Flood 42% · Chris Backemeyer 43%

Field dates
Aug 31–Sep 3, 2026
Sample
600 LV
Sponsor / client
Fight for Nebraska PAC
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Barr +9

Charles Booker 40% · Andy Barr 49%

Field dates
Aug 24–Aug 27, 2026
Sample
600 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

26 shown · 26 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
2022NY-22 · HouseHouse-G2022-10-26400D+2.0R+1.0D+3.0
2014NY-18 · HouseHouse-G2014-10-22401D+6.0D+1.9D+4.1
2014NY-24 · HouseHouse-G2014-10-21400D+5.0R+19.2D+24.2
2014HI-1 · HouseHouse-G2014-10-21400D+7.0D+3.9D+3.1
2014NY-19 · HouseHouse-G2014-10-18401R+10.0R+29.0D+19.0
2012IN · SenateSen-G2012-10-29600D+8.0D+5.8D+2.2
2012NY-21 · HouseHouse-G2012-10-22403D+7.0D+2.0D+5.0
2012IN · SenateSen-G2012-10-19603D+2.0D+5.8R+3.8
2011NY-9 · HouseHouse-G2011-08-31400D+8.0R+5.2D+13.2
2011NY-26 · HouseHouse-G2011-05-03400R+1.0D+5.0R+6.0
2010IA · GovernorGov-G2010-10-24600R+6.0R+9.6D+3.6
2010WV · SenateSen-G2010-10-19804D+5.0D+10.1R+5.1
2010PA-8 · HouseHouse-G2010-10-18400D+2.0R+7.0D+9.1
2010PA-12 · HouseHouse-G2010-04-28400D+8.0D+7.7D+0.3
2008IL-14 · HouseHouse-G2008-02-23402D+4.0D+5.1R+1.1
2006PA-8 · HouseHouse-G2006-10-30400D+5.0D+0.6D+4.4
2006IA · GovernorGov-G2006-10-28600D+7.0D+9.7R+2.7
2006IA · GovernorGov-G2006-10-28600D+7.0D+9.7R+2.7
2006NY-20 · HouseHouse-G2006-10-17404D+2.0D+6.2R+4.2
2004FL · SenateSen-G2004-10-25700D+4.0R+1.1D+5.1
2004NC · SenateSen-G2004-10-20800D+2.0R+4.6D+6.6
2004OK · SenateSen-G2004-10-19600D+1.0R+11.5D+12.5
2004CO · SenateSen-G2004-10-18600D+6.0D+4.8D+1.2
2004AK · SenateSen-G2004-10-18600D+4.0R+3.0D+7.0
2004WV · PresidentPres-G2004-10-13600R+2.0R+12.9D+10.9
2004WV · GovernorGov-G2004-10-13600D+33.0D+29.5D+3.5

1 further row is held in this pollster’s history shard as within-party or nonpartisan contests (Prim). Those carry no D/R orientation, so they are excluded from the error, bias and coverage figures above and from the table.

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.