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Pollster file

Emerson College

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls: 230
Mean absolute error: 4.19percentage points
Historical bias: D+0.37
Represented cycles: 112013–2025
Current archive: 141canonical records
History span: Jun 20, 2013through Oct 31, 2025

Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases: Emerson · Emerson College (D)
Organization type: Single canonical organization
Cycles represented: 2013 · 2014 · 2016 · 2017 · 2018 · 2019 · 2020 · 2021 · 2022 · 2024 · 2025

230 eligible historical polls across 11 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 141 total

Generic ballot

Dem +11.4

Dem 52.9% · Rep 41.5%

Field dates: Jul 19–Jul 20, 2026
Sample: 1,100 LV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Race

HOU-WA-03

Braun +1

Don't know 16% · Marie Gluesenkamp Perez 42% · John Braun 43%

Field dates: Jul 8–Jul 10, 2026
Sample: 500 LV
Sponsor / client: Northwest Progressive Institute
Partisan sponsorship: Democratic-sponsored

Race

Rhode Island · Governor

McKee +10.1

Don't know 16.7% · Someone else 6.1% · Ken Block 22.1% · Generic Republican 22.5% · Daniel McKee 32.6%

Field dates: May 14–May 16, 2026
Sample: 1,000 LV
Sponsor / client: WPRI-TV
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Race

Rhode Island · Governor

Foulkes +18.1

Don't know 18.5% · Someone else 2.9% · Ken Block 18.9% · Generic Republican 20.8% · Helena Foulkes 38.9%

Field dates: May 14–May 16, 2026
Sample: 1,000 LV
Sponsor / client: WPRI-TV
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Primary · D primary

Massachusetts · Senate

Markey +5

Ed Markey 37% · Seth Moulton 32% · Alexander Rikleen 1%

Field dates: May 4, 2026
Sample: 451 LV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Primary · R primary

Michigan · Governor

Johnson +1

John James 20% · Perry Johnson 21% · Tom Leonard 4% · Aric Nesbitt 3%

Field dates: Apr 13, 2026
Sample: 452 LV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Primary · D primary

Michigan · Senate

El-Sayed +11

Abdul El-Sayed 24% · Haley Stevens 13%

Field dates: Apr 13, 2026
Sample: 519 LV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Primary · D primary

Michigan · Governor

Benson +47

Jocelyn Benson 52% · Christopher Robert Swanson 5%

Field dates: Apr 13, 2026
Sample: 519 LV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Primary · D primary

Florida · Governor

Jolly +11

Jerry Demings 10% · Dayna Marie Foster 2% · David Jolly 21%

Field dates: Mar 31, 2026
Sample: 362 LV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Race

Florida · Senate

Moody +7.7

Don't know 15.8% · Someone else 1.2% · Ashley Moody 45.3% · Hector Mujica 37.6%

Field dates: Mar 29–Mar 31, 2026
Sample: 1,125 LV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Race

Florida · Governor

Jolly +0.6

Don't know 18.8% · Someone else 2.6% · Casey DeSantis 39% · David Jolly 39.6%

Field dates: Mar 29–Mar 31, 2026
Sample: 1,125 LV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Race

Florida · Governor

DeSantis +1.8

Don't know 17.4% · Someone else 2.6% · Casey DeSantis 40.9% · Jerry Demings 39.1%

Field dates: Mar 29–Mar 31, 2026
Sample: 1,125 LV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →

Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

30 shown · 230 total

Cycle	Race	Type	Field end	Sample	Poll	Result	Error
2016	2016_Pres-G_WI	Pres-G	2016-10-28	400	D+6.0	R+0.8	D+6.8
2016	2016_Sen-G_OH	Sen-G	2016-10-27	800	R+14.0	R+20.9	D+6.9
2016	2016_Sen-G_NV	Sen-G	2016-10-27	550	R+4.0	D+2.5	R+6.5
2016	2016_Sen-G_NC	Sen-G	2016-10-27	650	R+4.0	R+5.7	D+1.7
2016	2016_Sen-G_FL	Sen-G	2016-10-27	500	R+2.0	R+7.7	D+5.7
2016	2016_Pres-G_OH	Pres-G	2016-10-27	800	0	R+8.1	D+8.1
2016	2016_Pres-G_NV	Pres-G	2016-10-27	550	D+2.0	D+2.5	R+0.5
2016	2016_Pres-G_NC	Pres-G	2016-10-27	650	D+3.0	R+3.7	D+6.7
2016	2016_Pres-G_FL	Pres-G	2016-10-27	500	D+1.0	R+1.2	D+2.2
2016	2016_Sen-G_PA	Sen-G	2016-10-26	550	D+2.0	R+1.4	D+3.4
2016	2016_Pres-G_PA	Pres-G	2016-10-26	550	D+5.0	R+0.7	D+5.7
2016	2016_Pres-G_MI	Pres-G	2016-10-26	500	D+7.0	R+0.2	D+7.2
2016	2016_Sen-G_NH	Sen-G	2016-10-24	600	R+6.0	D+0.1	R+6.1
2016	2016_Pres-G_NH	Pres-G	2016-10-24	600	D+3.0	D+0.4	D+2.6
2016	2016_Sen-G_ID	Sen-G	2016-10-22	1,023	R+33.0	R+38.4	D+5.4
2016	2016_Pres-G_ID	Pres-G	2016-10-22	1,023	R+29.0	R+31.8	D+2.8
2016	2016_Sen-G_PA	Sen-G	2016-10-18	800	R+3.2	R+1.4	R+1.8
2016	2016_Sen-G_NH	Sen-G	2016-10-18	900	R+0.1	D+0.1	R+0.2
2016	2016_Sen-G_MO	Sen-G	2016-10-18	600	D+0.4	R+2.8	D+3.2
2016	2016_Pres-G_UT	Pres-G	2016-10-18	700	R+2.6	R+18.1	D+15.5
2016	2016_Pres-G_PA	Pres-G	2016-10-18	800	D+4.0	R+0.7	D+4.7
2016	2016_Pres-G_NH	Pres-G	2016-10-18	900	D+8.0	D+0.4	D+7.6
2016	2016_Pres-G_MO	Pres-G	2016-10-18	600	R+8.0	R+18.6	D+10.6
2014	2014_House-G_MA-9	House-G	2014-10-28	410	D+5.0	D+10.0	R+5.0
2014	2014_House-G_MA-6	House-G	2014-10-28	400	R+2.0	D+13.8	R+15.8
2014	2014_Gov-G_MA	Gov-G	2014-10-28	627	R+6.0	R+1.9	R+4.1
2014	2014_House-G_MA-9	House-G	2014-10-18	302	D+3.0	D+10.0	R+7.0
2014	2014_House-G_MA-6	House-G	2014-10-14	400	R+3.0	D+13.8	R+16.8
2013	2013_Gov-G_VA	Gov-G	2013-10-28	874	D+2.0	D+2.5	R+0.5
2013	2013_Sen-GS_MA	Sen-G	2013-06-20	1,422	D+10.0	D+10.2	R+0.2

5 further rows are held in this pollster’s history shard as within-party or nonpartisan contests (NYC-G · Prim). Those carry no D/R orientation, so they are excluded from the error, bias and coverage figures above and from the table.

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.