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Pollster file

Data for Progress

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
79
Mean absolute error
4.68percentage points
Historical bias
D+1.73
Represented cycles
42019–2024
Current archive
31canonical records
History span
Oct 7, 2019through Oct 31, 2024
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
Data for Progress (D)
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2019 · 2020 · 2022 · 2024

79 eligible historical polls across 4 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

7 shown · 31 total

Hyde-Smith +6

Cindy Hyde-Smith 47% · Scott Colom 41%

Field dates
Aug 5–Aug 15, 2026
Sample
1,018 LV
Sponsor / client
Way to Lead PAC
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +8

Dem 51% · Rep 43%

Field dates
May 15–May 18, 2026
Sample
1,149 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +13

Approve 43% · Disapprove 56%

Field dates
May 15–May 18, 2026
Sample
1,149 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Peltola +1

Mary Peltola 46% · Dan Sullivan 45%

Field dates
Oct 17–Oct 23, 2025
Sample
823 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Begich III +11

Nick Begich III 48% · Matt Schultz 37%

Field dates
Oct 17–Oct 23, 2025
Sample
823 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Sullivan +1

Mary Peltola 45% · Dan Sullivan 46%

Field dates
Jul 21–Jul 27, 2025
Sample
678 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

29 shown · 79 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
20202020_Pres-G_VAPres-G2020-10-30690D+11.0D+10.2D+0.8
20202020_Pres-G_TXPres-G2020-10-30926D+1.0R+5.6D+6.6
20202020_Pres-G_SCPres-G2020-10-30880R+9.0R+11.7D+2.7
20202020_Pres-G_PAPres-G2020-10-301,417D+7.0D+1.2D+5.8
20202020_Pres-G_NVPres-G2020-10-301,442D+7.0D+2.4D+4.6
20202020_Pres-G_NCPres-G2020-10-30908D+2.0R+1.4D+3.4
20202020_Pres-G_MSPres-G2020-10-30562R+14.0R+16.6D+2.5
20202020_Pres-G_MNPres-G2020-10-301,259D+8.0D+7.1D+0.9
20202020_Pres-G_KSPres-G2020-10-301,121R+14.0R+14.7D+0.7
20202020_Pres-G_IAPres-G2020-10-30951R+2.0R+8.2D+6.2
20202020_Pres-G_GAPres-G2020-10-301,036D+2.0D+0.2D+1.8
20202020_Pres-G_FLPres-G2020-10-301,202D+3.0R+3.4D+6.4
20202020_Pres-G_COPres-G2020-10-30709D+12.0D+13.5R+1.5
20202020_Pres-G_AZPres-G2020-10-301,195D+3.0D+0.3D+2.7
20202020_Pres-G_ALPres-G2020-10-301,045R+20.0R+25.5D+5.5
20202020_Pres-G_USPres-G2020-10-291,403D+10.0D+4.5D+5.5
20202020_Sen-G_SCSen-G2020-10-251,1960R+10.3D+10.3
20202020_Pres-G_SCPres-G2020-10-251,196R+6.0R+11.7D+5.7
20202020_Sen-G_TXSen-G2020-10-241,018R+2.0R+9.6D+7.6
20202020_Pres-G_TXPres-G2020-10-241,018D+1.0R+5.6D+6.6
20202020_Pres-G_USPres-G2020-10-20811D+10.2D+4.5D+5.7
20202020_Sen-G_TXSen-G2020-10-17933R+3.0R+9.6D+6.6
20202020_Sen-G_NCSen-G2020-10-17929D+4.0R+1.8D+5.8
20202020_Sen-G_MISen-G2020-10-17830D+5.0D+1.7D+3.3
20202020_Pres-G_TXPres-G2020-10-17933D+1.0R+5.6D+6.6
20202020_Pres-G_NCPres-G2020-10-17929D+4.0R+1.4D+5.3
20202020_Pres-G_MIPres-G2020-10-17830D+5.0D+2.8D+2.2
20192019_Gov-GR_LAGov-G2019-11-061,434D+0.4D+2.7R+2.3
20192019_Gov-O_LAGov-G2019-10-071,525D+22.0D+19.2D+2.8

1 further row is held in this pollster’s history shard as within-party or nonpartisan contests (Prim). Those carry no D/R orientation, so they are excluded from the error, bias and coverage figures above and from the table.

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.