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Pollster file

Data for Progress

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
79
Mean absolute error
4.68percentage points
Historical bias
D+1.73
Represented cycles
42019–2024
Current archive
31canonical records
History span
Oct 7, 2019through Oct 31, 2024
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
Data for Progress (D)
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2019 · 2020 · 2022 · 2024

79 eligible historical polls across 4 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 31 total

Race

HOU-CA-07

know +8

Don't know 40% · Mai Vang 32% · Doris Matsui 28%

Field dates
Aug 18–Aug 21, 2026
Sample
651 LV
Sponsor / client
Justice Democrats | Leaders We Deserve | Working Families Party PAC
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Hyde-Smith +6

Don't know 12% · Cindy Hyde-Smith 47% · Scott Colom 41%

Field dates
Aug 5–Aug 15, 2026
Sample
1,018 LV
Sponsor / client
Way to Lead PAC
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Hyde-Smith +6

Don't know 11% · Ty Pinkins 7% · Cindy Hyde-Smith 44% · Scott Colom 38%

Field dates
Aug 5–Aug 15, 2026
Sample
1,018 LV
Sponsor / client
Way to Lead PAC
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Peltola +6

Don't know 5% · Gerald Heikes 3% · Dan J. Sullivan 4% · Dan Sullivan 41% · Mary Peltola 47%

Field dates
Jul 28–Aug 4, 2026
Sample
605 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Race

HOU-AK-01

Begich +10

Don't know 4% · Neither 12% · Bill Hill 37% · Nick Begich 47%

Field dates
Jul 28–Aug 4, 2026
Sample
605 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Primary · D primary

MI-13 · House

Thanedar +4

Donavan McKinney 42% · Shri Thanedar 46%

Field dates
Jul 15, 2026
Sample
324 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Primary · D primary

Michigan · Senate

El-Sayed +13

Abdul El-Sayed 54% · Haley Stevens 41%

Field dates
Jul 14, 2026
Sample
614 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Race

HOU-MI-07

Lawrence +2

Don't know 6% · Tom Barrett 46% · William Lawrence 48%

Field dates
Jun 24–Jun 30, 2026
Sample
772 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Race

HOU-MI-07

Barrett +1

Don't know 7% · Tom Barrett 47% · Matt Maasdam 46%

Field dates
Jun 24–Jun 30, 2026
Sample
772 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Race

HOU-MI-07

Barrett +1

Don't know 9% · Tom Barrett 46% · Bridget Brink 45%

Field dates
Jun 24–Jun 30, 2026
Sample
772 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Rogers +1

Don't know 9% · Mike Rogers 46% · Haley Stevens 45%

Field dates
Jun 15–Jun 22, 2026
Sample
709 LV
Sponsor / client
Working Families Party PAC
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
El-Sayed +1

Don't know 7% · Mike Rogers 46% · Abdul El-Sayed 47%

Field dates
Jun 15–Jun 22, 2026
Sample
709 LV
Sponsor / client
Working Families Party PAC
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

29 shown · 79 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
20202020_Pres-G_VAPres-G2020-10-30690D+11.0D+10.2D+0.8
20202020_Pres-G_TXPres-G2020-10-30926D+1.0R+5.6D+6.6
20202020_Pres-G_SCPres-G2020-10-30880R+9.0R+11.7D+2.7
20202020_Pres-G_PAPres-G2020-10-301,417D+7.0D+1.2D+5.8
20202020_Pres-G_NVPres-G2020-10-301,442D+7.0D+2.4D+4.6
20202020_Pres-G_NCPres-G2020-10-30908D+2.0R+1.4D+3.4
20202020_Pres-G_MSPres-G2020-10-30562R+14.0R+16.6D+2.5
20202020_Pres-G_MNPres-G2020-10-301,259D+8.0D+7.1D+0.9
20202020_Pres-G_KSPres-G2020-10-301,121R+14.0R+14.7D+0.7
20202020_Pres-G_IAPres-G2020-10-30951R+2.0R+8.2D+6.2
20202020_Pres-G_GAPres-G2020-10-301,036D+2.0D+0.2D+1.8
20202020_Pres-G_FLPres-G2020-10-301,202D+3.0R+3.4D+6.4
20202020_Pres-G_COPres-G2020-10-30709D+12.0D+13.5R+1.5
20202020_Pres-G_AZPres-G2020-10-301,195D+3.0D+0.3D+2.7
20202020_Pres-G_ALPres-G2020-10-301,045R+20.0R+25.5D+5.5
20202020_Pres-G_USPres-G2020-10-291,403D+10.0D+4.5D+5.5
20202020_Sen-G_SCSen-G2020-10-251,1960R+10.3D+10.3
20202020_Pres-G_SCPres-G2020-10-251,196R+6.0R+11.7D+5.7
20202020_Sen-G_TXSen-G2020-10-241,018R+2.0R+9.6D+7.6
20202020_Pres-G_TXPres-G2020-10-241,018D+1.0R+5.6D+6.6
20202020_Pres-G_USPres-G2020-10-20811D+10.2D+4.5D+5.7
20202020_Sen-G_TXSen-G2020-10-17933R+3.0R+9.6D+6.6
20202020_Sen-G_NCSen-G2020-10-17929D+4.0R+1.8D+5.8
20202020_Sen-G_MISen-G2020-10-17830D+5.0D+1.7D+3.3
20202020_Pres-G_TXPres-G2020-10-17933D+1.0R+5.6D+6.6
20202020_Pres-G_NCPres-G2020-10-17929D+4.0R+1.4D+5.3
20202020_Pres-G_MIPres-G2020-10-17830D+5.0D+2.8D+2.2
20192019_Gov-GR_LAGov-G2019-11-061,434D+0.4D+2.7R+2.3
20192019_Gov-O_LAGov-G2019-10-071,525D+22.0D+19.2D+2.8

1 further row is held in this pollster’s history shard as within-party or nonpartisan contests (Prim). Those carry no D/R orientation, so they are excluded from the error, bias and coverage figures above and from the table.

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.