Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
41 eligible historical polls across 8 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
12 shown · 54 total
Keith Gross 35% · Luke Murphy 7% · Jim Norton 11% · Evan Power 11% · Austin Rogers 28%
Dem 48.8% · Rep 41.9%
Jay Collins 11% · Byron Donalds 43% · James Fishback 12% · Paul Renner 2%
Dem 49.9% · Rep 43.8%
Don't know 9.8% · Josh Turek 44.2% · Ashley Hinson 46%
Don't know 8.9% · Rob Sand 47.7% · Zach Lahn 43.4%
Gentner Drummond 44% · Mike Mazzei 42%
Dem 49% · Rep 44%
Dem 48.5% · Rep 42.4%
Dem 48.8% · Rep 43.3%
Marsha Blackburn 58% · John Rose 7%
Dem 49% · Rep 44.8%
41 shown · 41 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | national · President | Pres-G | 2024-10-26 | — | D+3.0 | R+1.5 | D+4.5 |
| 2024 | NC · President | Pres-G | 2024-10-15 | — | 0 | R+3.2 | D+3.2 |
| 2022 | 2022_Gov-G_MI | Gov-G | 2022-11-03 | 1,603 | D+3.7 | D+10.5 | R+6.8 |
| 2022 | 2022_Sen-G_OH | Sen-G | 2022-11-02 | 1,498 | R+6.2 | R+6.1 | R+0.1 |
| 2022 | 2022_Sen-G_NV | Sen-G | 2022-11-02 | 600 | R+2.5 | D+0.8 | R+3.3 |
| 2022 | 2022_Gov-G_OH | Gov-G | 2022-11-02 | 1,498 | R+18.9 | R+25.0 | D+6.1 |
| 2022 | 2022_Gov-G_NV | Gov-G | 2022-11-02 | 600 | R+5.0 | R+1.5 | R+3.5 |
| 2022 | 2022_House-G_US | House-G | 2022-10-29 | 2,015 | R+3.1 | R+2.7 | R+0.4 |
| 2022 | 2022_Gov-G_MI | Gov-G | 2022-10-29 | 1,584 | D+6.4 | D+10.5 | R+4.1 |
| 2022 | 2022_Sen-G_OH | Sen-G | 2022-10-28 | 1,510 | R+4.5 | R+6.1 | D+1.6 |
| 2022 | 2022_Sen-G_AL | Sen-G | 2022-10-28 | 616 | R+29.6 | R+35.8 | D+6.2 |
| 2022 | 2022_Gov-G_OH | Gov-G | 2022-10-28 | 1,510 | R+20.5 | R+25.0 | D+4.5 |
| 2022 | 2022_Gov-G_AL | Gov-G | 2022-10-28 | 616 | R+34.2 | R+38.0 | D+3.8 |
| 2022 | 2022_Sen-G_IA | Sen-G | 2022-10-27 | 600 | R+11.2 | R+12.2 | D+1.0 |
| 2022 | 2022_Gov-G_IA | Gov-G | 2022-10-27 | 600 | R+19.0 | R+18.5 | R+0.5 |
| 2022 | 2022_Gov-G_MI | Gov-G | 2022-10-23 | 1,378 | D+6.1 | D+10.5 | R+4.4 |
| 2022 | 2022_Sen-G_OH | Sen-G | 2022-10-22 | 1,886 | R+4.1 | R+6.1 | D+2.0 |
| 2022 | 2022_Gov-G_OH | Gov-G | 2022-10-22 | 1,886 | R+17.6 | R+25.0 | D+7.4 |
| 2022 | 2022_Sen-G_NC | Sen-G | 2022-10-21 | 600 | R+3.8 | R+3.2 | R+0.6 |
| 2022 | 2022_House-G_US | House-G | 2022-10-20 | 5,502 | R+1.7 | R+2.7 | D+1.0 |
| 2021 | 2021_Gov-G_VA | Gov-G | 2021-10-20 | 816 | 0 | R+1.9 | D+1.9 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-G_AL | Sen-G | 2020-10-22 | 645 | R+13.6 | R+20.4 | D+6.8 |
| 2020 | 2020_Gov-G_IN | Gov-G | 2020-10-22 | 600 | R+18.3 | R+24.4 | D+6.2 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-G_TN | Sen-G | 2020-10-21 | 610 | R+20.7 | R+27.0 | D+6.3 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-G_NE | Sen-G | 2020-10-20 | 625 | R+29.9 | R+38.5 | D+8.7 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-G_KY | Sen-G | 2020-10-20 | 640 | R+10.3 | R+19.5 | D+9.2 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-G_TX | Sen-G | 2020-10-19 | 600 | R+8.1 | R+9.6 | D+1.5 |
| 2020 | 2020_Gov-G_MO | Gov-G | 2020-10-19 | 600 | R+6.6 | R+16.4 | D+9.8 |
| 2019 | 2019_Gov-GR_LA | Gov-G | 2019-11-08 | 800 | D+2.2 | D+2.7 | R+0.5 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_OH | Sen-G | 2018-10-31 | 503 | D+10.4 | D+6.8 | D+3.5 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_OH | Gov-G | 2018-10-31 | 503 | R+0.2 | R+3.7 | D+3.5 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_GA | Gov-G | 2018-10-29 | 504 | R+2.2 | R+1.4 | R+0.8 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_FL | Sen-G | 2018-10-28 | 495 | D+1.8 | R+0.1 | D+1.9 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_FL | Gov-G | 2018-10-28 | 495 | R+0.6 | R+0.4 | R+0.2 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_TN | Sen-G | 2018-10-27 | 497 | R+5.8 | R+10.8 | D+5.0 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_MO | Sen-G | 2018-10-27 | 501 | R+3.0 | R+5.8 | D+2.8 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_IN | Sen-G | 2018-10-27 | 505 | R+2.9 | R+5.9 | D+3.0 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_TN | Gov-G | 2018-10-27 | 497 | R+22.4 | R+21.0 | R+1.4 |
| 2016 | 2016_Sen-G_KY | Sen-G | 2016-10-27 | 811 | R+9.7 | R+14.6 | D+4.8 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_KY | Pres-G | 2016-10-27 | 811 | R+24.0 | R+29.8 | D+5.8 |
| 2014 | 2014_Gov-G_AL | Gov-G | 2014-10-14 | 807 | R+21.3 | R+27.4 | D+6.1 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.